NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005
.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC LLVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E
CENTRAL ATLC WSW TO FLORIDA PROVIDING AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS AND TO THE NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED AT 11.4N 59.8 WEST AT 5 PM...MOVING W AT 16 KNOTS. AT MID
LEVELS...A TUTT REFLECTION HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NE. AT UPPER LEVELS TUTT SEGMENT TO OUR NW EXTENDING
FROM TUTT LOW OVER EXTREME E CUBE NEWD...WITH W TO SW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SOUTH OF P.R. IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER VORT
JUST NORTH OF THE A-B-C`S DRIFTING W AHEAD OF EMILY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BROAD WIND SURGE DEPICTED IN THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS WILL SHIFT
W THROUGH THE REGION NEXT 36-48 HOURS TO PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS...AND GENERATE AREAS AND ZONES
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT QUICKLY
PASSING RAINBANDS...SQUALLS...AND TSTORMS. THIS WEATHER WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM THE INNER CIRCULATION OF EMILY...AND HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO ENCROACH OUR SE CARIB WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. STLT PHOTOS TODAY
SUGGEST NEGATIVE TILT TO WIND ENVELOPE OF EMILY...WITH LARGE
MESOSCALE SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY WELL
AHEAD OF EMILY...SIMILAR TO THE INFAMOUS W AFRICAN DISTURBANCE LINE.
THIS MAY VERY WELL HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING FOR STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FREQUENT
SQUALLS THIS EVENING AHEAD AND WITH...AND THEN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
MAIN MESOSCALE SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS AND ISLANDS
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY STRONG GUSTY WIND. MAIN
WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE THIS AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE SQUALL
LINE...AND ANY INTERACTION WITH LLVL WIND SURGE AND OTHER SQUALLS
MOVING INTO THE NE CARIB TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL RAINBANDS AND SQUALLS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY AS EMILY PASSES WELL SOUTH...WITH THIS
WEATHER THEN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS EMILY MOVES INTO THE S
CENTRAL CARIB. I HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT TRAILING CONVERGENCE BANDS
BEHIND EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE TRAINING EFFECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...PARTICULARLY ST CROIX AND THE SE AND S SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO PEAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OFF SHORE ATLC...AND AROUND 9 FEET OFF SHORE AND SW CARIB
WATERS...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF EMILY
OCCURS. FREQUENT SQUALLS AND INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THESE CONDITIONS...
AND SCA NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL CARIB WATERS AND OFF SHORE ATLC...TO
BE EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SQUALLS AND RAINBANDS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AT 20 MPH OR GREATER AND WILL NOT LIKELY PRODUCE ANYTHING
MORE THAN URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SQUALL LINE
APPROACHING THE AREA ACROSS THE CARIB FROM THE SE THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE LARGER AREAS OF VERY HEAVY PRECIP THAT COULD CERTAINLY DUMP
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E AND SE P.R. WITH
ST CROIX MOST AT RISK. WITH FREQUENT RAINBANDS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
THEN FOLLOWING THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL BUT W AND NW P.R. WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG THE E AND SE SLOPES OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS
WILL YIELD SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
Big squall line to affect Puerto Rico and other islands.
Well some effects from Emily will be felt here in Puerto Rico.
not.
