H.Emily Advisorys

[cycloneye]

I think it might finally be ready to become a hurricane...

And a little change is a bit more slow now at 18 mph from 20 mph it was.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Where is that recon?

[deltadog03]

Where is that recon?

in about 3 hours....00z tonight

[Andrew92]

Y'know, even though I think it will stay south of the system I'm about to refer to, I wonder if I have an analog for Emily. That possible analog I have in mind is Claudette of '03. Let's face it, Claudette struggled for a lonnnnngggggg time to intensify and moved really fast across the Caribbean.

Now it's way too early to tell if it will make the same kind of northwest turn that Claudette made. Heck, it's too early to tell if Emily will survive that long! But there were times early in Claudette's life when it looked like it could have fizzled....and it didn't. I wonder if Emily will have a similar life cycle.

We'll see as time goes on. Hopefully I'm wrong and it just dissipates altogether!

-Andrew92

[wx247]

This map is certainly getting more colorful...

[cycloneye]

**Waiting for Discussion**

[Anonymous]

Y'know, even though I think it will stay south of the system I'm about to refer to, I wonder if I have an analog for Emily. That possible analog I have in mind is Claudette of '03. Let's face it, Claudette struggled for a lonnnnngggggg time to intensify and moved really fast across the Caribbean.

Now it's way too early to tell if it will make the same kind of northwest turn that Claudette made. Heck, it's too early to tell if Emily will survive that long! But there were times early in Claudette's life when it looked like it could have fizzled....and it didn't. I wonder if Emily will have a similar life cycle.

We'll see as time goes on. Hopefully I'm wrong and it just dissipates altogether!

-Andrew92

Yes, but Claudette has SW Shear until Texas. This just has some dry air to deal with, then it can take off.

[wx247]

It must be a good one or they forgot to transmit it... one or the other.

[cycloneye]

TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF EMILY IS VERY NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 62 KT AT 850 MB...AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 50
KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...ALTHOUGH SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/16. IT'S NOT QUITE WEST-NORTHWEST...
BUT IT'S A START. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE BASIC FORECAST
REASONING...WITH EMILY EXPECTED TO TAKE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH
OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE
RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
LITTLE CHANGED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAS BECOME OBSCURED AGAIN. A LOW-LEVEL SURGE IN
THE EASTERLIES OVERTAKING EMILY APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
MODEST WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE'S CORE...AND MAY ALSO HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE LARGE SCALE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

ALTHOUGH EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A
TROPICAL STORM...AREAS AT SIGNIFICANT ELEVATION ABOVE SEA
LEVEL...PARTICULARLY ON GRENADA...COULD EXPERIENCE SOME HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 11.4N 59.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 11.9N 62.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 12.8N 65.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 13.8N 68.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 71.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 78.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 84.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 20.0N 89.5W 65 KT...INLAND

[Andrew92]

Y'know, even though I think it will stay south of the system I'm about to refer to, I wonder if I have an analog for Emily. That possible analog I have in mind is Claudette of '03. Let's face it, Claudette struggled for a lonnnnngggggg time to intensify and moved really fast across the Caribbean.

Now it's way too early to tell if it will make the same kind of northwest turn that Claudette made. Heck, it's too early to tell if Emily will survive that long! But there were times early in Claudette's life when it looked like it could have fizzled....and it didn't. I wonder if Emily will have a similar life cycle.

We'll see as time goes on. Hopefully I'm wrong and it just dissipates altogether!

-Andrew92

Yes, but Claudette has SW Shear until Texas. This just has some dry air to deal with, then it can take off.

Well according to the discussion, shear is also impacting Emily, and Derek hinted that shear might impact Emily some more in the future. I did forget about Claudette being sheared vs. Emily with dry air, but still, Emily probably won't take off as fast in intensity as some are saying.

But we shall see if the shear lets up or not!

-Andrew92

[wxwatcher91]

I can't believe the NHC is STILL making Emily a major hurricane...

I'm skeptical of it reaching hurricane intensity!

It has been stuck at tropical storm intensity for 13 advisories now (42 hours) and is still pretty unorganized...

this will definitely be interesting...

[jkt21787]

I can't believe the NHC is STILL making Emily a major hurricane...

I'm skeptical of it reaching hurricane intensity!

It has been stuck at tropical storm intensity for 13 advisories now (42 hours) and is still pretty unorganized...

this will definitely be interesting...

The cdo is really starting to look impressive now, take a look at the IR if you haven't. If it can be sustained for several hours, it should be a good sign that Emily is getting its act together and well on its way to a hurricane.

[deltadog03]

I can't believe the NHC is STILL making Emily a major hurricane...

I'm skeptical of it reaching hurricane intensity!

It has been stuck at tropical storm intensity for 13 advisories now (42 hours) and is still pretty unorganized...

this will definitely be interesting...

The cdo is really starting to look impressive now, take a look at the IR if you haven't. If it can be sustained for several hours, it should be a good sign that Emily is getting its act together and well on its way to a hurricane.

kevin, a model shift northward maybe tonight??

[jkt21787]

I can't believe the NHC is STILL making Emily a major hurricane...

I'm skeptical of it reaching hurricane intensity!

It has been stuck at tropical storm intensity for 13 advisories now (42 hours) and is still pretty unorganized...

this will definitely be interesting...

The cdo is really starting to look impressive now, take a look at the IR if you haven't. If it can be sustained for several hours, it should be a good sign that Emily is getting its act together and well on its way to a hurricane.

kevin, a model shift northward maybe tonight??

Not sure. We'll just have to wait and see.

[texasheat]

please come to galveston. we need the rain, i hear thunderstorms everywhere. just no rain!!!

[deltadog03]

please come to galveston. we need the rain, i hear thunderstorms everywhere. just no rain!!!

i agree...i am near dallas, not much going on...just south of the metroplex, but not a whole lot of rain...we need it

[dhweather]

I feel for you guys, the bad drought years here - 2001 & 2 - most
here were williang to accept a hurricane to get the rain, man it was DRY.

Emily has exploded in convection this afternoon, she might make hurricane status before long after all.

[HurricaneBill]

please come to galveston. we need the rain, i hear thunderstorms everywhere. just no rain!!!

She said no.
Boy, won't you come home to me..........

Huh? Oh sorry.

[texasheat]

please come to galveston. we need the rain, i hear thunderstorms everywhere. just no rain!!!

She said no.
Boy, won't you come home to me..........

Huh? Oh sorry.

are you ok..

[canegrl04]

If I remember correctly,it was hurricane Allen in 1980 that broke a drought in Texas