H.Emily Advisorys

[clfenwi]

Now, um, that's what we refer to as "bombing", correct? Because I mean... @#$%! 60 to 90 mph... In 3 hours?

Not the greatest bit of work by NHC on the 8 PM advisory... there's no way it was 60 mph at that point... that was a carry-over from the estimates of previous advisories... the recon plane had not sampled the wind enviroment yet, but had done a percusory pass through the eye to get the pressure ob...

[texasheat]

I have a feeling she is going to clip the tip of the Yucatan, but not nearly as far south as the forecast track projects. I am thinking she'll just clip the tip of the Yucatan and end up being a threat from Corpus to Houston.

it matters about that ridge.

[yoda]

Ver bist du eine discussion?

[cycloneye]

**Awaiting Discussion**

[Mac]

I have a feeling she is going to clip the tip of the Yucatan, but not nearly as far south as the forecast track projects. I am thinking she'll just clip the tip of the Yucatan and end up being a threat from Corpus to Houston.

it matters about that ridge.

Yeah, I know. I think the ridge is going to weaken a bit by the time Emma gets that far. I could be wrong, but I think she's going to stay WNW to the Yucatan, and then head NW from there. Just my amateur opinion though.

[texasheat]

if the ridge does weaken that would take her to around freeport-la.

why do you think the models are weaking

[johngaltfla]

**Awaiting Discussion**

I think I can sum it up since it's so late:

[Mac]

if the ridge does weaken that would take her to around freeport-la.

why do you think the models are weaking

I don't understand your question. LOL

[yoda]

Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 13, 2005


Emily has rapidly intensified into a hurricane this evening. The
first aircraft fix at 2331z indicated the low level center was
beneath the western edge of the deep convection and measured a
central pressure of 1000 mb. 00z Dvorak intensity estimates ranged
from 50 to 65 kt...with the stronger estimates based on a low level
center in the middle of the deep convection. Later recon fixes
showed that the center had reformed to the northeast within the
convection...and the wind and pressure data soon responded. The
pressure has most recently fallen to 992 mb...and the maximum 850
mb flight level wind has been 79 kt...supporting at least 63 kt at
the surface. However...reduction to the surface of a dropsonde
profile just north of the center at 01z supports surface winds of
80 kt...which is the advisory intensity. The intensity forecast is
adjusted upward from the previous advisory...making Emily a major
hurricane by 48 hours. This could be conservative.
Due to the scatter in the recon fixes during the past couple of
hours...initial motion is uncertain but is estimated at 275/16.
Except for a slight northward adjustment to account for the new
position...the track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory. The NWS models...GFS and GFDL...have changed little
since the previous runs...while the Navy models...GFDN and
NOGAPS...have shifted only slightly to the south. The official
forecast takes Emily west-northwestward across the Caribbean
Sea...in accordance with the tightly clustered dynamical model
guidance.

Forecaster Knabb


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 14/0300z 11.9n 61.1w 80 kt
12hr VT 14/1200z 12.5n 63.5w 85 kt
24hr VT 15/0000z 13.4n 66.7w 90 kt
36hr VT 15/1200z 14.5n 70.0w 95 kt
48hr VT 16/0000z 15.5n 73.2w 100 kt
72hr VT 17/0000z 17.5n 79.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 18/0000z 19.5n 85.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 19/0000z 21.0n 90.5w 90 kt

[Swimdude]

**Awaiting Discussion**

I think I can sum it up since it's so late:

Amen. Yeesh, I really want to see this discussion... It should start with something to the effect of, "Well, that 8 p.m. was a load of @#$%."

[micktooth]

I think they have run out of ways to discuss this entire season! The NHC is at a loss for words.

[gkrangers]

Gee, that wasn't as interesting as I was expecting.

[yoda]

Gee, that wasn't as interesting as I was expecting.

Same. I was expecting a bit more... but we will go with what they gave us.

[johngaltfla]

I think they have run out of ways to discuss this entire season! The NHC is at a loss for words.

I think they should use this disclaimer from last night's advisories....

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.

[gkrangers]

Gee, that wasn't as interesting as I was expecting.

Same. I was expecting a bit more... but we will go with what they gave us.

The most important thing is it finally solidified its center. Reformed more towards the center of the convection, and it'll stay there now. It was probably jumping all around earlier today.

[texasheat]

Mac,

why do you think the ridge will weaken

[micktooth]

That's it? Boring discussion. Time to go to bed.

[Andrew92]

Gee, that wasn't as interesting as I was expecting.

Fire Knabb. Where's Stewart when ya need him?

OK, seriously, Knabb is obviously a good forecaster....keep him for the advisories, but not the discussions. Fire him from that.

-Andrew92

[Skywatch_NC]

140312
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

EMILY HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE THIS EVENING. THE
FIRST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2331Z INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS
BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND MEASURED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED
FROM 50 TO 65 KT...WITH THE STRONGER ESTIMATES BASED ON A LOW LEVEL
CENTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. LATER RECON FIXES
SHOWED THAT THE CENTER HAD REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE
CONVECTION...AND THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA SOON RESPONDED. THE
PRESSURE HAS MOST RECENTLY FALLEN TO 992 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND HAS BEEN 79 KT...SUPPORTING AT LEAST 63 KT AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...REDUCTION TO THE SURFACE OF A DROPSONDE
PROFILE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 01Z SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS OF
80 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING EMILY A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

DUE TO THE SCATTER IN THE RECON FIXES DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 275/16.
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
POSITION...THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE NWS MODELS...GFS AND GFDL...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE NAVY MODELS...GFDN AND
NOGAPS...HAVE SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES EMILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 11.9N 61.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.5N 63.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 66.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 70.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 90.5W 90 KT

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.

There we go...all fixed.

[Swimdude]

MAKING EMILY A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

That stands out the most, to me.