Ooook since the sticky was locked...

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

Ooook since the sticky was locked...

#1 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:50 pm

Sticky was locked; so I have a quick question here...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 11.9N 61.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.5N 63.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 66.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 70.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 90.5W 90 KT


What's the 10 kt drop in intensity at 120HR? If that were landfall over the Yucatan, wouldn't it say "...inland" as it usually does?
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#2 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:51 pm

landfall is in between the 96 hour and 120 hour points. Its already come onshore and come back offshore in that time.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:51 pm

its an inland position. over the central Yucatan
0 likes   
Top
texasheat

#4 Postby texasheat » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:53 pm

i think they are prejecting it to far south
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148502
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:53 pm

Image

The Yucatan is the cause.But long range forecasts change so stay tuned.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:
Contact PurdueWx80

#6 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:53 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:its an inland position. over the central Yucatan


90.5 W is just offshore, no?
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:55 pm

Do any of you think Emily might get retired?
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:55 pm

I believe its just inland... but right on the coast. Regardless, the weakening is due to a landfall and likely will be more than that... unless of course this becomes a much stronger cane
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#9 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:56 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Do any of you think Emily might get retired?

I think its too soon to know. We need to see what it hits the Yucatan (or wherever it goes) as first.
0 likes   
Top
texasheat

#10 Postby texasheat » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:57 pm

i didnt know they retire names like they retire jerserys..
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#11 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:57 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Do any of you think Emily might get retired?
Can't we wait till this affects land as a significant storm?
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#12 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:58 pm

texasheat wrote:i didnt know they retire names like they retire jerserys..
Hurricanes that cause a lot of death and/or destruction get retired.

Dennis will be retired, he's the most recent.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:58 pm

It depends what happens when it hits land
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#14 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:58 pm

texasheat wrote:i didnt know they retire names like they retire jerserys..

Retiring is very common for strong storms. Dennis likely will, Charley and Ivan were, Andrew and Hugo, and on and on.
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#15 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:03 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#16 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:04 pm

RETIRED:


Alphabetically
Agnes (1972)
Alicia (1983)
Allen (1980)
Allison (2001)
Andrew (1992)
Anita (1977)
Audrey (1957)
Betsy (1965)
Beulah (1967)
Bob (1991)
Camille (1969)
Carla (1961)
Carmen (1974)
Carol (1954)
Celia (1970)
Cesar (1996)
Charley (2004)
Cleo (1964)
Connie (1955)
David (1979)
Diana (1990)
Diane (1955)
Donna (1960)
Dora (1964)
Edna (1968)
Elena (1985)
Eloise (1975)
Fabian (2003)
Fifi (1974)
Flora (1963)
Floyd (1999)
Fran (1996)
Frances (2004)
Frederic (1979)
Georges (1998)
Gilbert (1988)
Gloria (1985)
Hattie (1961)
Hazel (1954)
Hilda (1964)
Hortense (1996)
Hugo (1989)
Inez (1966)
Ione (1955)
Iris (2001)
Isabel (2003)
Isidore (2002)
Ivan (2004)
Janet (1955)
Jeanne (2004)
Joan (1988)
Juan (2003)
Keith (2000)
Klaus (1990)
Lenny (1999)
Lili (2002)
Luis (1995)
Marilyn (1995)
Michelle (2001)
Mitch (1998)
Opal (1995)
Roxanne (1995)


Chronologically
1954 - Carol
1954 - Hazel
1955 - Connie
1955 - Diane
1955 - Ione
1955 - Janet
1957 - Audrey
1960 - Donna
1961 - Carla
1961 - Hattie
1963 - Flora
1964 - Cleo
1964 - Dora
1964 - Hilda
1965 - Betsy
1966 - Inez
1967 - Beulah
1968 - Edna
1969 - Camille
1970 - Celia
1972 - Agnes
1974 - Carmen
1974 - Fifi
1975 - Eloise
1977 - Anita
1979 - David
1979 - Frederic
1980 - Allen
1983 - Alicia
1985 - Elena
1985 - Gloria
1988 - Gilbert
1988 - Joan
1989 - Hugo
1990 - Diana
1990 - Klaus
1991 - Bob
1992 - Andrew
1995 - Luis
1995 - Marilyn
1995 - Opal
1995 - Roxanne
1996 - Cesar
1996 - Fran
1996 - Hortense
1998 - Georges
1998 - Mitch
1999 - Floyd
1999 - Lenny
2000 - Keith
2001 - Allison
2001 - Iris
2001 - Michelle
2002 - Isidore
2002 - Lili
2003 - Fabian
2003 - Isabel
2003 - Juan
2004 - Charley
2004 - Frances
2004 - Ivan
2004 - Jeanne
0 likes   
Top
texasheat

#17 Postby texasheat » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:05 pm

so many..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LSU2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1711
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Cut Off, Louisiana

#18 Postby LSU2001 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:15 pm

Check out these numbers I find them interesting in that more storms are retired during the active phase.

1954-1969 15 years 19 storm names retired

1970-1995 24 years 19 storm names retired

1995-2004 9 years 24 storm names retired

2005???????????? Dennis???

TIm
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#19 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:20 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe its just inland... but right on the coast. Regardless, the weakening is due to a landfall and likely will be more than that... unless of course this becomes a much stronger cane


NHC brought it down from 100 kt to 65 kt on the 5pm advisory, now just by 10 kt They must be thinking she'll be much stronger(they do say intensity is likely conservative).
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#20 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:22 pm

Brent wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I believe its just inland... but right on the coast. Regardless, the weakening is due to a landfall and likely will be more than that... unless of course this becomes a much stronger cane


NHC brought it down from 100 kt to 65 kt on the 5pm advisory, now just by 10 kt They must be thinking she'll be much stronger(they do say intensity is likely conservative).


I noticed that as well. And I seriously doubt she'll be moving fast enough to only loose 10 knots... Or be strong enough.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hammy, ronjon and 178 guests