Emily Recon

[clfenwi]

Corresponding dropsonde ob for most recent vortex

Observation Number: 16
Time: 0238Z
Position: 11.7 N // 60.7 W
Sea Level Pressure: 992 mb
Surface wind speed and direction: 11 knots // 110
925 millibar height: 621 meters
850 millibar height:1361 meters

[clfenwi]

992 mb! And yes, that was an Emily ob!

The pressure a bit high for Cat 1 hurricane though.

Well, in general, that depends on the environment a storm is in. If pressures are high, then the storm could have high 990s-mb and be a hurricane. Also, Recon may not have found the lowest pressure yet.

Second the first part of the latter's remarks...also note the trend... 2345Z or so 1000 mb , 0145Z 996, 0245Z 992 mb... not a trivial rate of falling

[gkrangers]

Are they still out there?

[deltadog03]

ok...look at this.... no more landfall on the yucatan penn.....??

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 11.9N 61.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.5N 63.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 66.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 70.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 90.5W 90 KT

[jkt21787]

ok...look at this.... no more landfall on the yucatan penn.....??

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 11.9N 61.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.5N 63.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 66.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 70.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 90.5W 90 KT

Check my reply on Talkweather

[clfenwi]

Time: 0315Z
Position: 11.0 North 62.0 West
Flight level winds: 17 knots // 340
850 millibar heights: 1505 meters





[clfenwi]

Are they still out there?

Plane is scheduled to be in the area until approximately 06Z//0200 EDT .

Right now they appear to be flying around the western edges of the storm...

[gkrangers]

Are they still out there?

Plane is scheduled to be in the area until approximately 06Z//0200 EDT .

Right now they appear to be flying around the western edges of the storm...

The convection is really really cold...wouldn't be shocked to see higher winds and/or lower pressure with later vortex messages.

[texasheat]

so if the convection is cold is means she is strengthing

[jkt21787]

so if the convection is cold is means she is strengthing

Yes, colder cloud tops means its either strengthening or at least maintaining strength, if they warm its a sign of some weakening, although maybe not immediate.

[gkrangers]

so if the convection is cold is means she is strengthing

Yes, cold cloud tops mean they are very high up in the atmosphere, which is indicative of a strong storm. They are indicated by the dark red and the greyish color on the infrared.

[texasheat]

alright, thanks

[clfenwi]

0348 1200N 06040W 01831 0024 145 070 126 126 077 01894 0000000000

What may be the highest flight level wind flown through this hour... 77 knots...NE quad...

[Hurricaneman]

Its definately strengthening

[clfenwi]

VORTEX MESSAGE

Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 79KT (90.8mph 146.3km/h) In N Quadrant At 01:08:00 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 71.1KT (81.8mph 131.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: STRONG BANDING FROM NW TO E AROUND CENTERMAX FL TEMP 22 C, 197 / 12NM
Date/Time of Recon Report: Invalid Date (Invalid Date)
Position of the center: 11° 39' N 061° 02' W (11.7°N 61.0°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1393m (Normal: 1457)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 036KT (41.4mph 66.7km/h) From 001°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 027nm (31.0 miles) From Center At Bearing 230°
Minimum pressure: 993mb (29.32in)
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 4nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[gkrangers]

993mb? Weakening, storm cancel.

[Brent]

993mb? Weakening, storm cancel.

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 20
Time: 0408Z
Position: 11.7 N 61.0 W
Sea Level Pressure: 993 millibars
925 millibar height: 634 meters
850 millibar height: 1371 meters
850 millibar winds: 22 knots // 260

Observation Number: 21
Time: 0410Z
Position: 12.1 North 70.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 1007 mb
Surface wind speed and direction:55 knots // 115
1000 millibar height:60 meters
1000 millibar winds 58 knots // 115
925 millibar height: 739 meters
925 millibar winds:70 knots // 125
850 millibar height: 1467 meters
850 millibar winds: 76 knots // 125

[Scorpion]

Lol I was just about to say that. Looks to be leveling off for now.

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 22
Time: 0437Z
Position: 12.5 North 60.2 West
Flight Level winds: 62 knots// 130
850 millibar height: 1516 meters

Observation Number: 23
Position: 12.5 North 62.1 West
Flight Level winds 50 knots//080
850 millibar height: 1497 meters