ok so 99L has weakened considerably it looks like. any chance of development left??? there is also a wave behind 99L coming off of Africa, any news on that one?
and lastly, what about that disturbance off the NC coast? any development possible, any news???
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wxwatcher91
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Hurricanehink
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I'd say 99L has a chance, though a small one. It is moving into more favorable conditions, with warmer waters and less shear. If it had more convection, it would have a great chance. Anything is possible, like they say.
The one off the coast is ominous, IMHO. If 99 doesn't develop, then there wouldn't be as much shear over this system, so this would have a good chance. If 99 does develop down the road, then this could still become something, as 99 would likely move northwest while this would stay south and go west. This has the best chance of the 3 systems you mentioned.
The thing off the coast of NC has very, very little chance. It was only a flareup of convection. If it persists, then it could be trouble, but the convection is dying away now.
The one off the coast is ominous, IMHO. If 99 doesn't develop, then there wouldn't be as much shear over this system, so this would have a good chance. If 99 does develop down the road, then this could still become something, as 99 would likely move northwest while this would stay south and go west. This has the best chance of the 3 systems you mentioned.
The thing off the coast of NC has very, very little chance. It was only a flareup of convection. If it persists, then it could be trouble, but the convection is dying away now.
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wxwatcher91
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wxwatcher91
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 140916
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILY...LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH...TOWARD WARMER
WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
ABNT20 KNHC 140916
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILY...LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH...TOWARD WARMER
WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
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wxwatcher91
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WeatherEmperor
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If this so called 99L develops right away then I do believe it would be a fish. However if it does not develop and just maintains itself, it could just track more westerly in a weak state as it approaches warmer waters. Ive been lookint at a WV loop in that region and conditions appear to be....ok for some development.
<RICKY>
<RICKY>
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wxwatcher91
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 21W S OF 19N AT 0600 UTC
BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10 KT.
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 10N22W-
11N24W-10N26W.
The wave behind 99L.
BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10 KT.
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 10N22W-
11N24W-10N26W.
The wave behind 99L.
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wxwatcher91
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Current TPC/NHC Model Plot
Plot used with permission of sfwmd.gov
000
WHXX01 KWBC 141850
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050714 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050714 1800 050715 0600 050715 1800 050716 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 41.9W 16.3N 44.0W 17.4N 46.1W 18.5N 48.1W
BAMM 15.5N 41.9W 16.4N 44.2W 17.5N 46.6W 18.6N 48.7W
A98E 15.5N 41.9W 15.8N 44.7W 16.4N 47.3W 17.5N 49.5W
LBAR 15.5N 41.9W 16.2N 44.4W 17.5N 46.8W 19.1N 49.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050716 1800 050717 1800 050718 1800 050719 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.9N 50.3W 22.9N 55.2W 25.9N 59.4W 27.9N 61.2W
BAMM 19.9N 51.0W 22.3N 55.7W 24.8N 60.7W 26.8N 63.8W
A98E 19.1N 51.6W 22.5N 56.1W 26.2N 60.1W 28.9N 61.1W
LBAR 20.7N 51.9W 25.3N 56.1W 30.2N 57.5W 31.3N 52.3W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 59KTS 60KTS
DSHP 45KTS 55KTS 59KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 41.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 39.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
Plot used with permission of sfwmd.gov
000
WHXX01 KWBC 141850
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050714 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050714 1800 050715 0600 050715 1800 050716 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 41.9W 16.3N 44.0W 17.4N 46.1W 18.5N 48.1W
BAMM 15.5N 41.9W 16.4N 44.2W 17.5N 46.6W 18.6N 48.7W
A98E 15.5N 41.9W 15.8N 44.7W 16.4N 47.3W 17.5N 49.5W
LBAR 15.5N 41.9W 16.2N 44.4W 17.5N 46.8W 19.1N 49.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050716 1800 050717 1800 050718 1800 050719 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.9N 50.3W 22.9N 55.2W 25.9N 59.4W 27.9N 61.2W
BAMM 19.9N 51.0W 22.3N 55.7W 24.8N 60.7W 26.8N 63.8W
A98E 19.1N 51.6W 22.5N 56.1W 26.2N 60.1W 28.9N 61.1W
LBAR 20.7N 51.9W 25.3N 56.1W 30.2N 57.5W 31.3N 52.3W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 59KTS 60KTS
DSHP 45KTS 55KTS 59KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 41.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 39.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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