What's the deal with the UKMET and New Orleans?

[micktooth]

This is the second storm in a row that the UKMET has gone out on its own (besides JB) and started to forecast a landfall in Louisiana. What's the deal? Do they not like us here in LA? Any input would be appreciated. Who knows, they might start to ask for voluntary evacuation again very soon!
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=5&Year=2005

[mf_dolphin]

Maybe the UKMet wants a trip to Bourbon Street.

[CaptinCrunch]

Emily looks to be a SE Texas coast or NE Mexico coast hit as a strong C3 or weak C4 HC.

[texasheat]

Emily looks to be a SE Texas coast or NE Mexico coast hit as a strong C3 or weak C4 HC.

There might be a wakened low in the gulf when she enters which would pull her more northern. its to far out to now yet

[clfenwi]

Obviously the work of a slightly unstable employee of the Met Office whose great-great-great-great grandfather was in the War of 1812 and was ticked off about that battle fought after the peace treaty was signed...

[jkt21787]

Emily looks to be a SE Texas coast or NE Mexico coast hit as a strong C3 or weak C4 HC.

If Emily crosses the Yucatan first, I'm not sure she'll landfall again as a major. JMO.

As texasheat said, still too far out.

[jax]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I really don't see Emily keeping up a 20mph clip
for the duration of her treck... I look for the forward speed to
slow down... she arrives in the Yucatan channel Tuesday... by
then we can expect the ridge to have eroded a bit.. allowing her
to make more of a NW to NNW track... about 7mph.

JMHO

[texasheat]

I really don't see Emily keeping up a 20mph clip
for the duration of her treck... I look for the forward speed to
slow down... she arrives in the Yucatan channel Tuesday... by
then we can expect the ridge to have eroded a bit.. allowing her
to make more of a NW to NNW track... about 7mph.

JMHO

where would that put her

[CaptinCrunch]

I really don't see Emily keeping up a 20mph clip
for the duration of her treck... I look for the forward speed to
slow down... she arrives in the Yucatan channel Tuesday... by
then we can expect the ridge to have eroded a bit.. allowing her
to make more of a NW to NNW track... about 7mph.

JMHO

A more NW track at that point will put futher N up the TX coast, and a NNW track would put her at the TX LA coast line.

Right in your front yard Texasheat...

[Lindaloo]

Maybe the UKMet wants a trip to Bourbon Street.

My thoughts exactly. lol.

[rtd2]

Remember UKMET was outlier for days then about 30 hrs prior to landfall came back east to P'cola..

[Swimdude]

Ahhh uncertainty. NOW we're talkin'! That's much more exciting than "Emily will crash into South America." I'm in Houston and ready for a 'cane.

[stormcloud]

Will you be ready for the roof blown off your house and two weeks without electricity?

[smashmode]

I'm in Houston and ready for a 'cane.

Kind of wierd that you are almost wishing it to happen.

[gkrangers]

I'm in Houston and ready for a 'cane.

Kind of wierd that you are almost wishing it to happen.

texasheat takes the cake when it comes to that...

[pcolaguy]

I know this is a foreign concept to most of you on here, so I will try to explain it in simple terms. Despite what has been previously thought, strong hurricanes do not always knock people's roofs off and knock out the electricity for 2 weeks *gasp*. Some people enjoy all the excitment in preperation, others like to watch the storm rage out the window, and some like both.

[BigO]

Personally, I think the UKMET is a drunk on an extended bender and seeking the best location to party a bit.

Either that or he hates us.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS must be buying into the current model forecasts.

ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. EMILY COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN N TEXAS WEATHER THIS TIME NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS BRING THE
HURRICANE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE ADVERTISED FRONT YESTERDAY. THUS...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST.
PERSISTENCE USUALLY RULES IN SUMMER AND WE WILL NOT BEND THE RULES YET.

[HurryKane]

Personally, I think the UKMET is a drunk on an extended bender and seeking the best location to party a bit.

Either that or he hates us.

Like I said in another thread: UKMET picked up a chickie on Bourbon Street, took her home, and found out she was a MAN, baby, and now he's real real mad at NOLA for false advertising.

[P.K.]

Maybe the UKMet wants a trip to Bourbon Street.

I've seen this in a couple of threads. Can someone explain to me what you mean?

The 12pm GMT run from yesterday was a bit strange, the latest run has gone back to about the same place as it was previously.