12:00z Model guidance

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cycloneye
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12:00z Model guidance

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:47 am

HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050714 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050714 1200 050715 0000 050715 1200 050716 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 63.2W 13.3N 66.4W 14.3N 69.7W 15.5N 73.1W
BAMM 12.4N 63.2W 13.5N 66.6W 14.6N 70.0W 15.9N 73.5W
A98E 12.4N 63.2W 13.3N 66.4W 14.3N 69.3W 15.5N 72.2W
LBAR 12.4N 63.2W 13.4N 66.4W 14.6N 69.7W 15.9N 73.1W
SHIP 80KTS 86KTS 93KTS 98KTS
DSHP 80KTS 86KTS 93KTS 98KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050716 1200 050717 1200 050718 1200 050719 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 76.6W 18.7N 83.2W 20.4N 88.7W 21.7N 92.9W
BAMM 17.1N 77.1W 19.4N 84.0W 21.1N 90.4W 21.8N 95.4W
A98E 16.5N 75.2W 18.6N 80.9W 20.1N 85.8W 21.4N 90.1W
LBAR 17.1N 76.5W 18.5N 83.2W 19.3N 89.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 102KTS 104KTS 99KTS 93KTS
DSHP 102KTS 104KTS 59KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 60.2W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 57.4W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM

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#2 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:52 am

Most seem to be more south and west at the end of the run...
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#3 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:02 am

hmm... wonder why the SHIP and DSHP lowered their intensity forecasts...

even after some wicked strengthening took place right beforehand...
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#4 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:03 am

I really cant stand the "TX get ready mentality", nothing changed dramatically from this time yesterday. The models (sans UKMET) haven't changed much. In fact, they are in pretty good agreement that the Yucatan pennisula will get hit and then on to Mexico.

Lets see what happens, but I dont see this as an upper tx coast storm, if it does come to tx it will be extreme south tx.
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:07 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:hmm... wonder why the SHIP and DSHP lowered their intensity forecasts...

even after some wicked strengthening took place right beforehand...


Landfall on the Yucatan.
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#6 Postby perk » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:10 am

dwg71 what exactly is your problem with Texas.
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#7 Postby Agua » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:18 am

dwg71 wrote:nothing changed dramatically from this time yesterday. The models (sans UKMET) haven't changed much. In fact, they are in pretty good agreement that the Yucatan pennisula will get hit and then on to Mexico.


Yeah, with the exception of that one run of the tropical models yesterday evening, which really didn't shift much to the right and only *hinted* at northward trend beginning, the models have been in pretty good agreement on a Yucatan hit for several runs. Where it goes after that depends on the ridge, obviously.
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#8 Postby HardCard » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:20 am

[quote="dwg71"] In fact, they are in pretty good agreement that the Yucatan pennisula will get hit and then on to Mexico.
[quote]

umm, the Yucatan *IS* mexico.
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#9 Postby KatDaddy » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:20 am

Models show less of a TX threat and have been consistent on a Mexico landfall. Remember the overal model consensus with Dennis. The ridge is strong forecast to persistent which would lead to a non-TX threat.
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#10 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:20 am

x-y-no wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:hmm... wonder why the SHIP and DSHP lowered their intensity forecasts...

even after some wicked strengthening took place right beforehand...


Landfall on the Yucatan.


yeah but didnt they have the intensity up to 120kt last run with still a forecasted landfall on the Yucatan?
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#11 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:23 am

KatDaddy wrote:Models show less of a TX threat and have been consistent on a Mexico landfall. Remember the overal model consensus with Dennis. The ridge is strong forecast to persistent which would lead to a non-TX threat.


Very true ... the only consistent outlier has been the UKMET which has been further north (right) than all of the other model runs. Yesterday I think the model had Emily going into Louisiana ... now it suggests middle Texas coast (i.e. Corpus).
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#12 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:26 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:hmm... wonder why the SHIP and DSHP lowered their intensity forecasts...

even after some wicked strengthening took place right beforehand...


Landfall on the Yucatan.


yeah but didnt they have the intensity up to 120kt last run with still a forecasted landfall on the Yucatan?


Ah, OK ... I misunderstood your question. Sorry.

I wasn't in last night, so I missed that 120 knots. They must have been seeing unusually favorable upper air conditions to go that high. Not saying that can't happen, but I'd say this forecast looks more realistic.

Jan
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