All it takes is one...

[jasons2k]

Hey, I just wanted to make an observation and give my 2 cents on something.

We all love to speculate on what may be the end game for a storm. And yes, a lot of us can back up our predictions with sound scientific data.

But it seems that some insist that they know where Emily is gonna go, and if you go against that idea, well, you just don't know what you're talking about.

Here is my message: All it takes is that one single, eyebrow-raising discussion to come from the NHC that says something like "While previous model runs and forecasts have consistently had {storm name} heading on a {direction} track, new data from the Gulfstream Jet (or whatever) indicates that {storm name} should make a turn and head in a {direction} within 12 hours. The track has been shifted to the {direction} of the previous track, taking {storm name} into {your home here} by 120 hours"

All I'm saying is that while there is nothing wrong with having confidence in your forecasting skills, don't be so quick to shoot-down other scenarios.

All it takes is that ONE discussion to come out, and it changes everything!

ESPECIALLY with a storm that's still 6 +/- days away from making final landfall!!

Cheers~

[patsmsg]

You're right.

People love to predict the same as they love to argue, regardless of whether they can back it up, or whether they may eventually be proven wrong. Most are eventually proven wrong, but they keep on making there forecasts 7 days out.

[EyeOfTheStorm]

She's mexico bound!

[Roxy]

good post. I see people go to every thread and write two words like "going to mexico" and that's it. It's annoying mainly because 1. you've posted no reasoning and 2. we heard you the first time...you don't need to post it in every thread.

[jasons2k]

good post. I see people go to every thread and write two works like "going to mexico" and that's it. It's annoying mainly because 1. you've posted no reasoning and 2. we heard you the first time...you don't need to post it in every thread.

Agreed!

[baitism]

going to Mexico is three words though.

[HouTXmetro]

going to Mexico is three words though.

ROFLMAO at your avatar!

[stormie_skies]

Couldn't agree more.

Think of how many storms have done things we didn't expect....or how much one little wobble or weakness can shift the eventual landfall location.... goodness knows everyone here has been watching these storms closely enough for long enough that they should know better!

A storm in or approaching the Gulf (a place Emily is most likely to end up right now) is and should be a scary thing for a lot of people, because all it takes is a little jog to completely change the scenario. Remember when Claudette was supposed to cross the Yucatan and head straight into Mexico? She kept crawling further and further north and made landfall on the middle Texas coast ... and certainly got the attention of a few of us in the Houston/Galveston area. Now Claudette was a cat 1 ....imagine if Emily - who could very well be a major when she enters the Gulf - were to take a big ol' jog - or even a tiny one! So many lives could be on the line...

Long story short - nothing is a sure bet when it comes to tropical systems - and ESPECIALLY this year! Even tho a Galveston area landfall is pretty unlikely, I know I will be counting up the water bottles and tuna cans this weekend...

[cajungal]

Agreed. You can't rule anything out this far out. Anything can change and alter a hurricane's path.

[Roxy]

going to Mexico is three words though.

this post falls in the same category mentioned above. But this is a free country and people are allowed to be asses if they wish.