Hurricane Emily Advisories

[Anonymous]

If I am not mistaken it has been 6-7 hours for that drop to occur

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NOW A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES... 905 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z THU JUL 14 2005

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 64.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 64.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.3N 66.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 69.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 76.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

[/b]

[HURAKAN]

As always, the NHC is being conservative with the intensity forecast.

[AussieMark]

As always, the NHC is being conservative with the intensity forecast.

They do openly admit the challenges in intensity forcasting

[cycloneye]

[/b]

[dwg71]

This forcast is slightly south and west of last advisory. May be 1/4 degree early and a 1/2 degree late. No big surprise...

[arlwx]

Huh? Looks like it moved .3 degree North since the 8 am position.

[dwg71]

Huh? Looks like it moved .3 degree North since the 8 am position.

The forcast track not the storm it self.

[Brent]

NHC has a direct hit on Cozumel as a Strong Cat 3.

[HURAKAN]

As always, the NHC is being conservative with the intensity forecast.

They do openly admit the challenges in intensity forcasting

I know forecasting intensity is very hard, thereafter, the NHC is most of the time conservative.

[cycloneye]

493
WTNT45 KNHC 141459
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

EMILY IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. REPORTS FROM
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY IS STRENGTHENING AGAIN.
THE MINIMUM PRESSURE FELL BY AT LEAST 13 MB OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 90
KT...WHICH SUPPORTS 80 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT I PRESUME THERE HAS
BEEN SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THIS DECREASE IN
PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 85
KT...CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UKMET
AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHWARD TRACKS.

THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THERE ARE SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERIES AHEAD OF EMILY IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO GET OUT OF THE
WAY. MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF
INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND CALLS FOR
SOMEWHAT MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 12.7N 64.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.3N 66.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 69.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 76.8W 110 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 83.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W 100 KT

[Swimdude]

thats a bomb

I agree 100%

I'd say. How many hours was it for the 11mb drop?

6, most likely.

[x-y-no]

Well, We're looking certain to have the second major of the year no later than tomorrow. July isn't even halfway over ... incredible.

[wxwatcher91]

is it just me or has Emily lost a ton of convection over the past 2 hours?

[x-y-no]

is it just me or has Emily lost a ton of convection over the past 2 hours?

Cloud tops have warmed a little bit, but there's still a good CDO, and the structure is good. I don't think she's losing anything.

Jan

[cycloneye]

is it just me or has Emily lost a ton of convection over the past 2 hours?

Cloud tops have warmed a little bit, but there's still a good CDO, and the structure is good. I don't think she's losing anything.

Jan

In reallity she is a small hurricane in it's core with a small eye.

[x-y-no]

is it just me or has Emily lost a ton of convection over the past 2 hours?

Cloud tops have warmed a little bit, but there's still a good CDO, and the structure is good. I don't think she's losing anything.

Jan

In reallity she is a small hurricane in it's core with a small eye.

Yes, that's true. And interestingly, even as they take her up to a major, the NHC doesn't forecast a really large windfield.

Jan

[CaptinCrunch]

THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF
INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND CALLS FOR
SOMEWHAT MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

As Emily moves out away from Venezuela and heads more over the open waters of the Caribbean her wind field should increase as well, she may not get as big as what Gilbert was but she sure has the chance to be as strong. C5