An eye has finally emerged on Emily...very small eye, but it's there. Since the eye is so small, this could mean rapid development. I still stick with my prediction of a category 5 storm within 48 hours. Such tightly-packed storms can fluctuate in intensity very quickly...going from a category 2 to a category 5 within 48 hours in not unheard of.
Anthony
Finally an EYE on Emily...
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Finally an EYE on Emily...
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Huckster
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For all the talk about storms becoming cat. 5's and so on, it's a rather rare event in the Atlantic basin. I doubt this one becomes a cat. 5, but I wouldn't rule it out. We just had the first cat. 4 in July in almost 70 years (1926), unless another one slipped by that I did not notice. One thing that scares me is the idea that things could or will get even more active than they are now. It's pretty much a given that Emily will become a major hurricane soon. It's only July 14th. I don't doubt we'll see a cat. 5 by the time this season is over.
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jax
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jax
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gkrangers
I don't think so and heres why. Recon will get int the storm around 7PM tonight. So they might have new obs for the 8PM advisory and definitely for the 11PM advisory.jax wrote:very nice view... very nice...
JMHO she'll be cat 3 by 5pm avisory
cat 4 by 11am tomorrow
They are in no rush, and won't make adjustments until recon supports it, since theres no immediate threat to land.
JMO
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jax
gkrangers wrote:I don't think so and heres why. Recon will get int the storm around 7PM tonight. So they might have new obs for the 8PM advisory and definitely for the 11PM advisory.jax wrote:very nice view... very nice...
JMHO she'll be cat 3 by 5pm avisory
cat 4 by 11am tomorrow
They are in no rush, and won't make adjustments until recon supports it, since theres no immediate threat to land.
JMO
only time will tell...
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wxwatcher91
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jax
wxwatcher91 wrote:24 hour prediction:
7/14 5pm: 120mph
7/14 11pm: 130mph
7/15 5am: 130mph
7/15 11am: 145mph
7/15 5pm: 150mph
that's what i said!
I have a feeling that this thing is gonna end up with a Major
wind field... 80 to 120 from the center by the time it passes
throught the Yucatan Channel...
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I can see them going min cat 3 (115 mph)at 5 PM advisory on the justification that satellite appearance has improved (distinct eye on vis sat).
They got burned yesterday afternoon/last night when they held their estimates (although reading the discussion, their analysis (based on the old center) justified them doing so), until the next Recon arrived. It created a bit of a discontinuity that probably didn't exist. There was certainly strengthening going on during the 8 PM/9 PM hours, but it almost certainly begun sooner. I don't think it was all in that tiny window.
They may want to try to smooth things out this time.
They got burned yesterday afternoon/last night when they held their estimates (although reading the discussion, their analysis (based on the old center) justified them doing so), until the next Recon arrived. It created a bit of a discontinuity that probably didn't exist. There was certainly strengthening going on during the 8 PM/9 PM hours, but it almost certainly begun sooner. I don't think it was all in that tiny window.
They may want to try to smooth things out this time.
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WeatherEmperor
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wx247
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Might be of importance to note that according the the floater... it looks like Emily's center may have just passed a little north of the forecasted plot by the NHC. Not that this is a trend... just making an observation.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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deltadog03
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wx247 wrote:Might be of importance to note that according the the floater... it looks like Emily's center may have just passed a little north of the forecasted plot by the NHC. Not that this is a trend... just making an observation.
Hey, i agree...just saw that...stepped away from this for a few hours and just ran the visible....she did go pat that forecast point...i am sure its prolly nothing but, just an obs...thanks..
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