Is Emily an open and shut case?

[Stormcenter]

It's amazing how many of the posts today have Emily's future track as basically an open and shut case as NOT being a U.S. threat. Yeah in time that eventually may be the case but haven't you guys and gals tracked enough tropical systems to know this is not always the case even when the models say it is? I just think it's way too early to call this storm as a Mexico only hit.

[alicia-w]

I think Dennis proved there's no such thing as an open and shut case.

[djtil]

dennis was pretty open and shut from about 3-4 days in....and even from 5-6 days it only shifted about 200 miles east.

it looks to me that in this case its pretty open and shut considering there is basically 1 dominant steering feature firmly anchored in the GOM.....the only question is how far south.

[dwg71]

Most everyone is going with the NHC on this and with model agreeance that points to a Mexico landfall, Extreme south TX is also an option.

I think many have an idea of where they'd like it to go. But at this time, the most logical and probable track is WNW to the Pennisula then continue onto Mex.

That might change, I think many dont like the message so they shoot the messenger.

[Stormcenter]

dennis was pretty open and shut from about 3-4 days in....and even from 5-6 days it only shifted about 200 miles east.

it looks to me that in this case its pretty open and shut considering there is basically 1 dominant steering feature firmly anchored in the GOM.....the only question is how far south.

What happens if Emily stalls in the BOC?

[dwg71]

dennis was pretty open and shut from about 3-4 days in....and even from 5-6 days it only shifted about 200 miles east.

it looks to me that in this case its pretty open and shut considering there is basically 1 dominant steering feature firmly anchored in the GOM.....the only question is how far south.

What happens if Emily stalls in the BOC?

Then it will have done something that it was not forcast to do and we wold have to deal with it. At this time that is not forseen.

[southerngale]

dennis was pretty open and shut from about 3-4 days in....and even from 5-6 days it only shifted about 200 miles east.

it looks to me that in this case its pretty open and shut considering there is basically 1 dominant steering feature firmly anchored in the GOM.....the only question is how far south.

What happens if Emily stalls in the BOC?

Why would it stall?

[sealbach]

well, I saw a lot of posts on here yesterday that said Emily was dying and it's only a matter of time before she becomes an open wave...I'm going with the NHC on this...I don't see that ridge moving enough for it to be a US storm.

[dhweather]

Emily is open and shut for, oh, say Port Arthur to Cape Cod, but if I were
in Texas - particularly extreme southern Texas, I'd be paying careful
attention to her.

[jasons2k]

See thread "all it takes is one"

[Stormcenter]

dennis was pretty open and shut from about 3-4 days in....and even from 5-6 days it only shifted about 200 miles east.

it looks to me that in this case its pretty open and shut considering there is basically 1 dominant steering feature firmly anchored in the GOM.....the only question is how far south.

What happens if Emily stalls in the BOC?

Why would it stall?

I just received this comment via email from my brother. It was just posted by a local N.O. TV met.

As these storms get to the edge of these highs, they can sometimes slow down. The only thing I worry about is Emily stalling in the Bay of Campeche. *Any changes to the upper level pattern need to be watched that could possibly erode the high and cause this to happen.*

However, right now, things appear to be looking good. But keep in mind we are talking 5-6 days down the road, so keep up with the latest here and on Channel 4.

[stormie_skies]

IMO there is NO such thing as an open and shut case when it comes to tropical systems that are 3+ days away from final landfall....too many things can change, and it only takes one.....

....I will bet the guys at the NHC would agree!

[corpusbreeze]

I dont think it is an open and shut case but as of right now it sure looks like a Mexican strike, Even as far south as Tampico. But hey, we here in Texas may get some badly needed rain from this.

[alahurricane]

I agree, ANYONE on the Gulf Coast should watch Emily. I remember two hurricanes in particular that were supposed to go to Texas. Ivan 2004 and Frederic 1979, both of which turned North. Stay tuned.

[alicia-w]

dennis was pretty open and shut from about 3-4 days in....and even from 5-6 days it only shifted about 200 miles east.

it looks to me that in this case its pretty open and shut considering there is basically 1 dominant steering feature firmly anchored in the GOM.....the only question is how far south.

I have to disagree. Until almost an hour or so out, we were being told it was a cat 3 or 4 storm and then something just happened!!!!

no such thing as open and shut.

[djtil]

im pretty sure we were just discussing tracking...everyone knows timing intensity minima/maxima is impossible at this time.

[carve]

Not a weather forcaster by any means..just a crazy weather nut..Since Emily developed the track for the most has trended towards mexico..but the last few tracks i have seen are trending more north..Is this going to be a continued trend or do we still see it landing in mexico?

[KatDaddy]

Model consensus points to Mexico well S of TX. Model consensus was right on target for Dennis. For now TX looks safe. I will wait until Emily is done with the Yucatan before I even think about Emily being a potential threat.

[clfenwi]

GFS in its past few 0Z/12Z runs has been suggesting a stall/very slow move across BOC. Haven't looked closely to try to cipher out why it is doing that. That idea isn't supported by any of the other global models att.

[Stormcenter]

Model consensus points to Mexico well S of TX. Model consensus was right on target for Dennis. For now TX looks safe. I will wait until Emily is done with the Yucatan before I even think about Emily being a potential threat.

Good Post KatDaddy.