Hurricane Emily Advisories

[cycloneye]

Sorry, but in Dennis the winds supported 135 kts yet they kept it at 130 because of pressure. Shouldnt they be doing the same here?

Check your PM.

[JenBayles]

Uh oh Scorp - shoulda listened to Swimdude.

[sealbach]

One thing I noticed about Dennis was that when it made landfall, it didn't look that bad. They said it was a CAT3 when it made landfall, but while I was watching the Weather Channel, it didn't look very bad at all and the reporters where right there near the eye. I told my wife that it's images like that (doesn't look as bad as they say) along with the hype of high winds that makes a lot of people think, "hey, it's not that bad, I won't evacuate when one hits here".

[JenBayles]

One thing I noticed about Dennis was that when it made landfall, it didn't look that bad. They said it was a CAT3 when it made landfall, but while I was watching the Weather Channel, it didn't look very bad at all and the reporters where right there near the eye. I told my wife that it's images like that (doesn't look as bad as they say) along with the hype of high winds that makes a lot of people think, "hey, it's not that bad, I won't evacuate when one hits here".

You are so RIGHT!

[wxwatcher91]

One thing I noticed about Dennis was that when it made landfall, it didn't look that bad. They said it was a CAT3 when it made landfall, but while I was watching the Weather Channel, it didn't look very bad at all and the reporters where right there near the eye. I told my wife that it's images like that (doesn't look as bad as they say) along with the hype of high winds that makes a lot of people think, "hey, it's not that bad, I won't evacuate when one hits here".

that's mainly because it was weakening as it hit land...if a hurricane strikes land at 120mph in a weakening stage, its not as bad as if it hits at 120mph in a strengthening stage.

[sealbach]

I figured 120mph was 120mph whether it was weakening or not...It just made ME think that they were inflating the wind speeds to make it seem more nasty. Just my opinion.

[GalvestonDuck]

One thing I noticed about Dennis was that when it made landfall, it didn't look that bad. They said it was a CAT3 when it made landfall, but while I was watching the Weather Channel, it didn't look very bad at all and the reporters where right there near the eye. I told my wife that it's images like that (doesn't look as bad as they say) along with the hype of high winds that makes a lot of people think, "hey, it's not that bad, I won't evacuate when one hits here".

And another thing -- I noticed a lot of reporters were actually protected behind/between buildings most, if not all, of the time. There was one guy who didn't look like he was experiencing much at all, but then he walked out away from the hotel and into the wind and you could tell there was a world of difference between the shelter of the concrete walls and being out in the open. It was very deceptive -- makes people think it's not that severe.

[wx247]

That is why you should obey the advice of your local emergency management officials and not try to ride out a storm or hurricane if ordered to leave.

[sealbach]

good point, Duck.

[clfenwi]

One thing I noticed about Dennis was that when it made landfall, it didn't look that bad. They said it was a CAT3 when it made landfall, but while I was watching the Weather Channel, it didn't look very bad at all and the reporters where right there near the eye. I told my wife that it's images like that (doesn't look as bad as they say) along with the hype of high winds that makes a lot of people think, "hey, it's not that bad, I won't evacuate when one hits here".

The thing is that none of the media were where the worst winds were at... Navarre Beach (and possibly higher at Gulf Shores National Seashore, but there's nothing there but beach).

The media were to the west, in Pensacola, which as noted above, not where the strogest winds were at...probably a good 25 mph lower at peak, maybe more... so, of course things didn't look like a category three there...

Situations like this remind me of Andrew in '92. The media were centered around Miami on Sunday morning, so their first post-Andrew images came from there. All of them were saying 'Gee, not much damage. Doesn't look like a catgeory four hit'. That's because it didn't hit there, of course. It hit Homestead and Florida City. It wasn't until later in the day that the images of destruction from there started to roll in from national media...

[BreinLa]

Hey I thought this was the Hurricane Emily Advisory thread.

[HurricaneBill]

that's mainly because it was weakening as it hit land...if a hurricane strikes land at 120mph in a weakening stage, its not as bad as if it hits at 120mph in a strengthening stage.

Example:

Hurricane Ivan made landfall on Grenada as a strengthening Category 3 with sustained winds of 120 mph.

Hurricane Ivan made landfall on Alabama as a weakening Category 3 with sustained winds of 120 mph.

I think wind damage was worse in Grenada.

[Brent]

that's mainly because it was weakening as it hit land...if a hurricane strikes land at 120mph in a weakening stage, its not as bad as if it hits at 120mph in a strengthening stage.

Example:

Hurricane Ivan made landfall on Grenada as a strengthening Category 3 with sustained winds of 120 mph.

Hurricane Ivan made landfall on Alabama as a weakening Category 3 with sustained winds of 120 mph.

I think wind damage was worse in Grenada.

Grenada's buildings aren't as sturdy either... most structures will survive 120 mph winds here in the States. The surge is what caused a lot of the damage.

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 142039
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY BECOMES A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
720 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH
...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE
OF THE SEASON. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z THU JUL 14 2005

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 65.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 65.9W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 65.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.1N 68.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 72.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.5N 75.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.6N 79.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 65.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

Our second monster!

[dhweather]

BAM - 5/2/2 on July 14th.

[canegrl04]

Emily ramping it up

[hicksta]

is she still running fast

[dwg71]

no change in forcast path.