Hurricane Emily
Unofficial Forecast # 4
Thursday July 14, 2005 6pm Eastern
USE NHC FOR OFFICIAL INFO
Hurricane Emily has continued to rapidly deepen, like I have been harping on for over 48 hours. It is now a very
dangerous major Category 3 hurricane.
The ridge of high pressure to the north of the hurricane should steer it on a west-northwesterly path over the next
120 hours or so. After that, it appears that a west-northwesterly track should continue, although the uncertainty
that far out is very high, as to if a weakness the ridge could cause the storm to be pulled up more northwesterly,
or even if the ridge builds in so strong, that Emily has to move due west. In any case, Jamaica should be prepared
for a direct hit, although it is likely that the center, or core which will be holding the most destructive winds, will
pass south of the island. After that, I feel that a landfall near Cancun will occur, and after that, Emily should pass
back out into the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf of Mexico.
With the inner core well established, Emily has the opportunity to rapidly intensify, which it has been doing for the
past 12 hours or so. My forecast, which has shown a Category 4 in the Northwest Caribbean all along, goes ahead
once again making Emily a severe Category 4 hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea, and a Category 4 landfall in
the Yucatan. After some slight weakening over the Yucatan, the warm Gulf waters should allow Hurricane Emily to
deepen back into a Category 4 hurricane.
* Should Emily take the Southern track across the Yucatan, it would be significantly weaker by the time it would
enter the Gulf of Mexico. However, should the hurricane take the Northern track, Emily could be significantly
stronger as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
12 Hours: 13.9 N/ 67.7 W - 110 kt
24 Hours: 15.1 N/ 71.9 W - 115 kt
36 Hours: 16.1 N/ 75.3 W - 115 kt
48 Hours: 17.7 N/ 79.2 W - 120 kt
72 Hours: 20.1 N/ 85.0 W - 125 kt
96 Hours: 22.6 N/ 90.8 W - 110 kt
120 Hours: 24.0 N/ 94.9 W -125 kt
Comments Welcome
