18Z GFS....Central TX Coast....
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18Z GFS....Central TX Coast....
18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....
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Stratosphere747
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Re: 18Z GFS....Central TX Coast....
Derecho wrote:18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....
Derecho,
Was this the model that was having huge shifts with Dennis?
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margaritabeach
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deltadog03
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Re: 18Z GFS....Central TX Coast....
Stratosphere747 wrote:Derecho wrote:18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....
Derecho,
Was this the model that was having huge shifts with Dennis?
NOGAPS had been a Rock of Gibraltar wrt its forecast track of Emily...been saying Yucatan since Tuesday morning...
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jkt21787 wrote:Derecho wrote:ivanhater wrote:doesnt the other models always follow the gfs?
Not really.
Actually, yes, the tropical model suite (LBAR, BAMM, BAMD) will usually trend with the GFS. So in all likelyhood they will be further north on the next run, although probably not to central TX.
That's because the Tropical model suite literally uses the GFS as it's background field; they're not independent models. They're the BAMD overlay of the GFS, etc.
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Stratosphere747
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Re: 18Z GFS....Central TX Coast....
clfenwi wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:Derecho wrote:18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....
Derecho,
Was this the model that was having huge shifts with Dennis?
NOGAPS had been a Rock of Gibraltar wrt its forecast track of Emily...been saying Yucatan since Tuesday morning...
I'm just wondering about the validity of this model Clf...
I thought this was the one that kept shifting Dennis from the EC of Fla to NO?
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Re: 18Z GFS....Central TX Coast....
Stratosphere747 wrote:clfenwi wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:Derecho wrote:18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....
Derecho,
Was this the model that was having huge shifts with Dennis?
NOGAPS had been a Rock of Gibraltar wrt its forecast track of Emily...been saying Yucatan since Tuesday morning...
I'm just wondering about the validity of this model Clf...
I thought this was the one that kept shifting Dennis from the EC of Fla to NO?
Negs, that was the Canadian...
and keeping in mind that past history is no sure indicator of future performance, remember this from an early Emily discussion...
IT IS PERHAPS
OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD ONLY A SO-SO YEAR
LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL
SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN
LAST YEAR...IS STRUGGLING A BIT.
Last edited by clfenwi on Thu Jul 14, 2005 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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deltadog03
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Re: 18Z GFS....Central TX Coast....
clfenwi wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:clfenwi wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:Derecho wrote:18Z NGP through 72 hours is significantly N of the 12Z Track, but the rest of it isn't out....
Derecho,
Was this the model that was having huge shifts with Dennis?
NOGAPS had been a Rock of Gibraltar wrt its forecast track of Emily...been saying Yucatan since Tuesday morning...
I'm just wondering about the validity of this model Clf...
I thought this was the one that kept shifting Dennis from the EC of Fla to NO?
Negs, that was the Canadian...
NGP?? nogaps??
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I have a hard time believing such a drastic shift, not only are we dealing with the worst run cycle of the GFS, but it seems way overboard with the s/w trough digging, which is completely different than every other run of the GFS (including its members) to other latest model runs.
I just don't believe it right now. I'd wait for 00z before thinking anything different than what every model out there is saying right now, Northern Yucatan then into Mexico.
Doesn't mean Texans shouldn't be watching it though.
I just don't believe it right now. I'd wait for 00z before thinking anything different than what every model out there is saying right now, Northern Yucatan then into Mexico.
Doesn't mean Texans shouldn't be watching it though.
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Derecho wrote:jkt21787 wrote:Derecho wrote:ivanhater wrote:doesnt the other models always follow the gfs?
Not really.
Actually, yes, the tropical model suite (LBAR, BAMM, BAMD) will usually trend with the GFS. So in all likelyhood they will be further north on the next run, although probably not to central TX.
That's because the Tropical model suite literally uses the GFS as it's background field; they're not independent models. They're the BAMD overlay of the GFS, etc.
Yes, thats exactly what I mean. They will trend with GFS since its used as a background, but don't expect them to go to central Texas tonight.
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HouTXmetro
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deltadog03
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