Emily Forecast #4: Watchful eyes in Jamaica and Cancun

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE EMILY
NJN WEATHER CENTER
715 PM THURS JULY 14TH 2005

Hurricane Emily continues to book across the southeast Carribean and strengthen at well. She had reached Cat 3 status with 115 mph winds at 5 pm and also had a well defined eye.

Emily's track still keeps her away from the US through the period though if she moves any further north than forecast near the end of the period.. she may threaten extreme south Texas.

Emily is in a warm water environment where she may continue to strengthen despite her battering of the smaller islands throughout the last day or 2.

Emily may come dangerously close to Jamaica by Saturday and with her northern side being on top or near Jamaica, that may mean it'll be an ugly day for them with some definite strong winds and bands of rain and squalls.

Emily is expected to continue on a WNW track with no hints of any jerks to the North or East. Thus as mentioned.. keeping her away from the US.

The only thing that worries me about Emily is that as she approaches the Yucatan and extreme Eastern Mexico, she may continue to grow.. We all remember Mitch from 1998 I'm sure.

Intensity forecasts will be on the safe side not to alarm anybody even though there is clearly a disclaimer posted on the page.

Here is my experimental 5 day forecast on Emily.

Tonight: May continue to strengthen. Max Winds: 120 mph
Friday: Growing into a textbook storm. In the Caribbean,Staying well south of the DR Max Winds: 140 mph
Saturday: Will come VERY CLOSE to Jamaica Max Winds: 150 mph
Sunday:Nearing the Yucatan.. Max Winds: 150 mph
Monday: Into the BOC, headed for Mexico, will lose strength over land. Max Winds: 120 mph

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cape Verde]

I hope you're right. Texas needs the rains, but I'll think we'll offer Emily to Mexico no questions asked. The western Gulf waters are just too hot.

[EDR1222]

Texas must pay attention. Any weakness in the ridge could put it dangerously close.

[WeatherEmperor]

Texas must pay attention. Any weakness in the ridge could put it dangerously close.

Agreed. It is still a bit too close to call for Texas so they need to keep an eye on Emily.

<RICKY>

[Josephine96]

I'm afraid the waters could cause Emily to get to Cat 5.. But I don't believe she would

[Swimdude]

I'm afraid the waters could cause Emily to get to Cat 5.. But I don't believe she would

Then again, remember how close Dennis came, and no one thought he could either!

[flyingphish]

Jamiaca may get slammed. This Emily is really winding up. Caymans still undigging from Ivan. This sounds like September chatter. What a season. Prayers out to those down there!

[Rainband]

Agreed, they need all the prayers they can get this season..so far!!

[hicksta]

my personal opinon puts it around freeport..
Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.