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Winter Weather Discussion

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AnthonyC
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#6301 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:10 pm

Have a little extra time on my hands...

It's disgustingly hot in Salt Lake City...today's high temperature was officially 101F...tomorrow 104F. Granted it is dry heat, 100+F in any condition is ridiculous. It makes me appreciate Seattle weather.

I haven't been intune with Seattle's weather as of late...has anything changed? There's been little (if no) activity on this thread for the past week...I'm a little surprised.

I went to Jackson Hole, Wyoming Saturday thru today and it was very nice, perfect weather...80F with plenty of sunshine. There was one passing thunderstorm that brought a terrential downpour and a microburst (wind gusted to 40 mph) but other than that you could not have asked for better weather.

I do notice that summer will officially arrive in Seattle July 12...or today...as temperatures rebound and a solid ridge of high pressure expands toward the Pacific Northwest.

I will be back in Seattle tomorrow thru Sunday, then off to Hawaii for 10 days. I checked the weather in Hawaii and there's plenty of tropical moisture down there...they've received alot of rainfall as of late. Things improve this weekend though.

Anthony

PS-Saw VERY LITTLE coverage of hurricane Dennis...I've been busy and had no access to a computer or television. But from what I've heard/seen, it was not as bad as most thought...it weakened the very last minute to a category 3...wait, what am I saying? ONLY a category 3?! lol.
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TT-SEA

#6302 Postby TT-SEA » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:32 pm

Not much has changed.

I thought sometime in Salt Lake City would make you appreciate the 70-degree weather of Seattle. We have it pretty good in the summer.

Although... this weekend may be a little cloudy and cool.

Next week is looking nice!!
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#6303 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:52 am

Nice to be back at home...it was a beautiful evening when I flew in around 6pm. I left Salt Lake City around 4pm and the temperature was 103F...it was 87F at 7:50 am...CRAZY STUFF!

As for today, another awesome day...temperatures will be around 80-82F inland...75-77F right along the Puget Sound. Very little morning fog/low clouds...patchy in nature.

Anthony
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#6304 Postby weather girl » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:19 pm

Wow...I haven't checked here in awhile, and it has been quiet. It looks like we're going to have a nice week ahead....once we get past Saturday. Even Sunday looks nice. Then we're back to cool again after about Wednesday of next week....until about the end of the month from what I can tell.

Anybody want to venture a guess about August? Do we really heat up or more of the same? I'm thinking more of the same, although I can't believe I just typed that.
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#6305 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:03 pm

Since this year is relatively similar to 1993...or very similar...I will go off what happened that summer. I say August is very mild and dry...as is September and the first part of October. I say we see 20 days of 80+F temperatures in August...and 0.24 inch of rain throughout the entire month. Just a prediction.

Anthony
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#6306 Postby Brian_from_bellingham » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:07 pm

Weather girl, I went through some of the old posts, and it sounds like you might go to OSU and know George Taylor? I go to their website, I always look forward to their Fall/Winter predictions. I know it is a bit early, but I am wondering if you have heard anything.

By the way, in yesterday's PI, there was a good article about how warm the waters have been off the Washington/Oregon coast, and how that has hurt salmon runs. And of course had an impact on our weather. I do see though that the PDO, which was very positive in May, has gone down some in June, and that SST's look more normal off our coast.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/apl ... hpagefrom=
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#6307 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:05 pm

Just checking in...Yes I am still here!

I like what I am seeing! A July where it just cannot get hot, but still some really nice weather. The progs for next week have completely done away with the idea of heat. Instead it looks like broad cyclonic flow sets up over us (not like anything I have seen in July in ages)!

It is hard to imagine us not having a cold and early fall with the northern branch of the jetstream so dominating our weather in July. I am more sure than ever that this winter is going to be....shall we say...quite different than anything witnessed in many, many years. You can take that to the bank!

A bit of interesting news. A kid from Wisconsin has "hired" me to be the climate guy on his new weather site. He has some great ideas and has rounded up some amazing talent. Could be a very successful site someday. I am probably not at liberty to post the address of the site, but I will be in touch with many of you later.

I am going to continue my summer break now.
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#6308 Postby weather girl » Thu Jul 14, 2005 5:28 pm

Nice to hear from you again, snow_wizzard! I hope you keep posting. I don't know if you read my post from waaaaay back, but at least one of the Portland meteorologists is starting to back up your winter cold snap prediction. He also said we'll have a mild, dry fall (agrees with Dr. Taylor), but sees something happening.....I think he said towards the end of January. He won't get into it until "we're further down the road."

Brian: I graduated from Portland State...about 10 years ago now, I guess. I have had email exchanges with Dr. Taylor, though. He's quite accurate w/PNW weather. I think he's great. Dr. Taylor and the Portland meteorologists seem to be on the same page about a mild dry fall that they predict will last into November. They kind of parrotted each other on the local Portland news stations about 3 weeks ago. Personally, I hope snow_wizzard is right. I hope I'm not offending the summer lovers out there.

PS: Thank you, Anthony, for your August prediction.
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#6309 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:34 pm

Weather Girl...I am glad to hear that others are thinking we will get nailed too. I think it will be earlier than they are saying, but I could be wrong about that.

Given the way the progs look next week, I would not be shocked to see a huge temperature variation between Seattle and Portland next week and possibly at times through the early fall. Fall could be rather dry, but I think some cool weather is very likely. I feel it would be a mistake to base what is going to happen on years like 93 and 95. This one is in a class all its own. I have spoken to many others, who buy my contention that this year is really whacked out. Just look at the number of Atlantic storms already. NOT NORMAL!

This could be my last post until August. I still need some time off from this.
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#6310 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:00 pm

It's good to hear from Snow_Wizzard and Brian_from_Bellingham. Dude Brian, you haven't posted in over six months!! Where have you been? And Snow_Wizzard...I thought you left the forums forever! lol.

I do think August, September and part of October will be warmer and drier than normal. As for the late fall/early winter situation, I won't give a prediction until September at the earliest...I want to see if my late summer/early fall prediction holds.

Another beautiful evening...currently 74F with a light, offshore breeze. Tomorrow looks like a cloudy but seasonal day with temperatures in the mid, upper 60s. Next week is up in the air...just three days ago the GFS had temperatures in the mid, upper 80s...today it has temperatures in the mid 70s...in two days it could have temperatures in the mid 60s. The GFS model has been pure crap this entire year...including this past winter.

Anthony
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TT-SEA

#6311 Postby TT-SEA » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:41 pm

O.K... here is my two cents.

This year is behaving VERY much like 1995. Cool and fairly wet in the PNW... along with hot and dry in the Midwest and Southwest. We are transitioning into a neutral or weak La Nina situation so we will continue to veer away from 1993 and follow 1995 pretty closely.

I expect a warm, and now VERY wet winter with maybe one cold outbreak and a little snow. The current pattern and the ENSO conditions are just screaming Pinneapple Express events this winter. We could have some very warm periods this coming winter.

The Altantic storms are related to elevated SST's and not an overall weather pattern. Still.. its interesting to watch!!
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#6312 Postby AnthonyC » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:38 am

Mukilteo picked up 0.31 of an inch of rain...very impressive for July 15. Our daytime high occurred at 11am...67F...from then on it went down to around 60F.

Today looks like a transition day...should stay mostly cloudy until late afternoon when the winds turn northerly and scour out the low clouds. We are currently experiencing some light drizzle which should stick around most of the morning.

Monday looks to be the warmest day of the week...most places will exceed 80F...the foothills could see some upper 80s. But then after that, onshore flow continues and this zonal flow resumes...meaning nothing too warm, nothing too cool...morning clouds/afternoon sunshine. Not bad overall.

Anthony
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#6313 Postby W13 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:29 am

Hey everyone, I'm just here to check in after a week in Oregon (Clackamas, OR to be exact). The weather down there has been beautiful, but unfortunately I don't have a computer down there so I can't post much. We will be leaving tommorow to spend some more time down there, and hopefully a few days in Madras, OR (Central Oregon, near Bend, OR) and watch some dirt track auto racing.

Talk to you all soon,

Justin :)
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#6314 Postby AnthonyC » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:46 am

One of the warmest days of the summer is on tap for today...temperatures should range from 77-87F. Flow goes offshore for a brief period this afternoon as a thermal low rides up the OR coast...unfortunately that thermal trough shifts inland over OR and takes most of the heat with it. Today should be the warmest day for most of Western Washington...warmest day for the cascade foothills comes tomorrow.

Then a zonal pattern develops...but no shortwaves look to come through. This means morning clouds, afternoon sunshine with temperatures seasonal or slightly below normal.

I'm off to Hawaii tomorrow...so I probably won't post for about 10 days.

Anthony
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#6315 Postby andycottle » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:46 am

Helllllloooooo All..!! I`m back home in Woodinville from my 3 week vacation in Ohio. For the most part, it was very humid and bit hot with partly to mostly sunny days and warm muggy nights. Though during the frist week I was there, we had scatterd thunder storms, some which put down some heavy rains and minor flooding in spots. Also had a few good T-Storms come through the Green County area of Ohio that had lots of lightning during the time I was there. Over all, glad I was able to see my fair share of storms!

Will see if I can share some pics with ya all today, but will share pics sometime this week. -- Andy
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#6316 Postby andycottle » Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:53 am

Well...yesterday was a nice sunny day with loads of blue sky and lots of sunshine. My high was 74 with a low of 52. -- Andy
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#6317 Postby R-Dub » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:49 pm

Life has been crazy busy for me, so I haven't had a chance to check in here much but I am here now :lol:

Great to see Brian from Bellingham and everyone else still is checking in even though the weather over the last couple of weeks have been very quiet. Looks like things may be starting to get a little loud as thunderstorms are possible for tonight and Friday. We shall see!
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#6318 Postby andycottle » Thu Jul 21, 2005 11:45 pm

Hi Randy.. Nice to see/hear from ya after me being gone for three weeks. Hope thing settel down for ya! :wink: -- Andy
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#6319 Postby cancunkid » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:59 pm

I have a good friend in Boise who called me said that last night they set a new record of the highest low ever. The old record of 79 was set July 21, 1903 and tied July 30, 1994 well last night the low was 86 :eek: that breaks the old record by 7 degrees! Shocking! I had been complaining about the heat here in the Ozarks but at least we are getting into the low to mid 70s at night.....true more humidity but still 86!!
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TT-SEA

#6320 Postby TT-SEA » Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:28 pm

Most of us on this thread post from Western Washington. We have been pretty lucky this summer... highs in the 70's and low 80's and lows in the 50's.

Across the nation... this summer is an amazing repeat of 1995.

This spring we were on course with 1993... but the emergence of a weak La Nina situation changed all that.
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