H Emily Recon Reports

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system has tighten into a small tight system. With a clear small eye with red all around. There is no quastion that this is close to cat4 or above.

[gkrangers]

This system has tighten into a small tight system. With a clear small eye with red all around. There is no quastion that this is close to cat4 or above.

Would it be too much to ask to wait for recon to thoroughly sample the storm before making these statements? I mean...you'd have a much better chance of being right.

[Hurricane Cheese]

8 PM NHC advisory says USAF Recon has reported a central pressure of 962 mb!!!

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 05
Time transmitted: 0003
Position: 13.4 north 66.6 West
Sea Level Pressure: 963 mb
Surface wind speed and direction: 52 knots // 005
925 millibar height: 361 meters
925 millibar winds: 47 knots // 020
850 millibar height: 1020 meters
850 millibar winds: 56 knots // 040
700 millibar height: 2775 meters
700 millibar winds: 49 knots // 045
EYEWALL

[gkrangers]

Observation Number: 05
Time transmitted: 0003
Position: 13.4 north 66.6 West
Sea Level Pressure: 963 mb
Surface wind speed and direction: 52 knots // 005
925 millibar height: 361 meters
925 millibar winds: 47 knots // 020
850 millibar height: 1020 meters
850 millibar winds: 56 knots // 040
700 millibar height: 2775 meters
700 millibar winds: 49 knots // 045
EYEWALL

With winds low like that, and pressure so low, they may have hit the edge of the inner eyewall.

[wxwatcher91]

it was the eyewall they got not the eye I think

[gkrangers]

it was the eyewall they got not the eye I think

Yeah, they did hit the eyewall.

[jkt21787]

it was the eyewall they got not the eye I think

Those winds are quite low though so it was probably the inner edge of the eyewall moving into the eye.

[clfenwi]

Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 101KT (116.2mph 187.1km/h) In NW Quadrant At 23:44:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 90.9KT (104.5mph 168.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: X FL TEMP 16 C, 318 / 6NM
Date/Time of Recon Report: Invalid Date (Invalid Date)
Position of the center: 13° 18' N 066° 36' W (13.3°N 66.6°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2753m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35 KT (40.25MPH 64.8km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 112nm (128.8miles) From Center At Bearing 302°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 101KT (116.15mph 187.1km/h) From 037°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 006nm (6.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 318°
Minimum pressure: 962 mb (28.41in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 8nm (9.2 mi 14.8km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[wxwatcher91]

000
URNT12 KNHC 150013
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/23:46:50Z
B. 13 deg 18 min N
066 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2753 m
D. 35 kt
E. 302 deg 112 nm
F. 037 deg 101 kt
G. 318 deg 006 nm
H. 962 mb
I. 7 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 2860 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0405A EMILY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 101 KT NW QUAD 23:44:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 318 / 6NM

[wxwatcher91]

wonder what they'll get in the NE quad

[cycloneye]

That pressure is the same as advisorie so I assume that the vortex was taken before 8 PM.

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 06
Time transmitted: 0014Z
Position: 13.3 N 66.6 W
Sea Level Pressure: 962 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 48 knots//175
925 millibar height: 350 meters
925 millibar winds: 46 knots // 190
850 millibar height: 1092 meters
850 millibar winds: 31 knots//200
700 millibar height: 2759 meters
700 millibar winds: 29 knots // 270
EYE

[wxwatcher91]

That pressure is the same as advisorie so I assume that the vortex was taken before 8 PM.

yeah... but did they get the NE quad winds before the advisory? that could account for continued 115mph winds... unless maybe they ARE at 115mph and just havent caught up to the pressure fall

[clfenwi]

That pressure is the same as advisorie so I assume that the vortex was taken before 8 PM.

Yeah, looks like it was actually taken at 2347Z or so but not transmitted until later... the eyewall dropsonde ob was out several minutes before the vortex and eye dropsonde obs were...my 'vortex rsn' comment was based on seeing the wind drop in the minobs...

[gkrangers]

NW quad should actually have the strongest winds given the storms orientation. Its a pretty good estimate of the storms strength.

[clfenwi]

At 0020Z: position 1203N 06521W going to the extreme southeast edge of Emily...

[Hyperstorm]

That pressure is the same as advisorie so I assume that the vortex was taken before 8 PM.

Yes, Cycloneye. For the people that don't know....The first number that you see next to KNHC: 150013 is not the vortex message time. Rather, the time in letter A is the TRUE vortex message time. In this case, the pressure was taken at 23:46 Zulu time, which is the same as 7:46 pm EDT.

000
URNT12 KNHC 150013
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/23:46:50Z
B. 13 deg 18 min N
066 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2753 m
D. 35 kt
E. 302 deg 112 nm
F. 037 deg 101 kt
G. 318 deg 006 nm
H. 962 mb
I. 7 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 2860 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0405A EMILY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 101 KT NW QUAD 23:44:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 318 / 6NM[/b]

[StormsAhead]

They have started to go north again. The next time they go into the eyewall it will be the NE quad, so we will see if (or how much) the winds have changed.

[gkrangers]

They have started to go north again. The next time they go into the eyewall it will be the NE quad, so we will see if (or how much) the winds have changed.

Remember, the RFQ is the strongest quad. And in this case, its the NW-N eyewall.