00:00z Model Guidance,GFDL,Bam Models to Texas

[FritzPaul]

Just like last night, the NHC track is the southernmost track.

[cycloneye]

Postig the grapfic at second page for all to see the changes from some of the models to the right.

[stormie_skies]

WOW....the NHC's track is the southernmost outlier now....I assume we should expect to see an adjustment in the upcoming update....??




Maybe its just a wobble....?

[Rainband]

But will this become a trend?? Thats the big question.

[johngaltfla]

Time for the Texans to wake up....God I hope the oil traders aren't watching those models, but you and I both know they are!!!!!!!

[Ivanhater]

i dont know why but it is never up to date for me, i try refreshing but doesnt work, im assuming they are the same as wunderground, because those are updated

[cycloneye]

But will this become a trend?? Thats the big question.

Bingo.!! More runs are needed to then see a real trend more too the north towards Texas or south towards Mexico.

[Swimdude]

This Texan is waking up. What's up with the sudden shift?! I'm sure we'll see something about this in the 11 p.m. advisory... Which is still a good hour + away.

[HouTXmetro]

This Texan is waking up. What's up with the sudden shift?! I'm sure we'll see something about this in the 11 p.m. advisory... Which is still a good hour + away.

Who knows? I'm hoping it's just some bad info and they will return southward in the next run once new info is put in.

[Portastorm]

I wouldn't get too worked up yet ... let's see if this is a trend continued in the next few model runs.

Regardless, everyone in the western GOM should be watching closely as NHC suggests.

Does this mean the Emily Model Wobblefest has begun?

[dhweather]

Here's my take on this shift:

1) We need the next two runs (12Z, 00Z) to verify this for sure

2) There's some interesting dynamics going on

Watch the WV loop below

The ULL/trof over Eastern Cubua is clearly creating a SSW/SW flow in front of Emily - look just SE of Jamaica

The ULL over central Texas seems to be digging SE towards the GOMEX

It's way to early to predict what these features will do to Emily's path,
but they certainly offer the chance for a more northerly componet in her path.



http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Brent]

i dont know why but it is never up to date for me, i try refreshing but doesnt work, im assuming they are the same as wunderground, because those are updated

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif Put that in your address bar... basically all are north of the NHC's 5pm track, way north in some cases.

[Ivanhater]

no luck, but does it look like this?http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html

[Brent]

no luck, but does it look like this?http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html

NOGAPS is way to the south... BAMM looks old too, but the rest seem to be right.

[stormie_skies]

Time for the Texans to wake up....God I hope the oil traders aren't watching those models, but you and I both know they are!!!!!!!

Oh dont say that! Gas is up to $2.25 a gallon as it is.....

Oh, and as a side note, I like the nic..... Ayn Rand fan, are ya?

[Ivanhater]

oh..thanks brent

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmm now what's this I've been reading about this being a Mexico only storm?

I think I said Upper Tx/SW La. and I'm NOT -removed-.

[Stormcenter]

I wouldn't get too worked up yet ... let's see if this is a trend continued in the next few model runs.

Regardless, everyone in the western GOM should be watching closely as NHC suggests.

Does this mean the Emily Model Wobblefest has begun?

Not just the Western GOM should keep an open eye on Emily.

[wx247]

Remember the saying I keep repeating... the trend is your friend.

I wouldn't expect the NHC to go too far right with their 11 pm update.

[Swimdude]

Hmmmmm now what's this I've been reading about this being a Mexico only storm?

I think I said Upper Tx/SW La. and I'm NOT -removed-.

It's hard for many to believe that we're not -removed-, seeing as we're Houstonians... But i've been thinking, not preaching, thankfully, Corpus Christi area the entire way... So we'll see what happens.