H Emily Recon Reports

clfenwi · #81 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:45 pm

Here is the sequence as they approached and exited the center...

0129. 1328N 06704W 03050 5214 124 110 088 088 125 02887 0000000000

0130 1327N 06705W 02886 5273 127 053 118 118 062 02663 0000000000

0130. 1325N 06706W 02813 5296 122 028 126 126 033 02567 0000000000

0131 1324N 06707W 02886 5297 111 008 128 126 014 02639 0000000000

0131. 1322N 06708W 03016 5277 292 018 130 126 030 02789 0000000000

0132 1321N 06709W 03058 5230 294 066 116 116 094 02880 0000000000

#82 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:55 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:take 90 percent of the FL winds, yields 110-115KT

Derek - do you think we have a cat 4 now?

clfenwi · #83 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:55 pm

Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 125KT (143.8mph 231.5km/h) In NE Quadrant At 01:29:10 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 112.5KT (129.4mph 208.3km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Invalid Date (Invalid Date)
Position of the center: 13° 24' N 067° 07' W (13.4°N 67.1°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2723m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 125KT (143.75mph 231.5km/h) From 126°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 006nm (6.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 034°
Minimum pressure: 958 mb (28.29in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 8nm (9.2 mi 14.8km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

Observation time 15/01:30:50Z

Swimdude · #84 Postby **Swimdude** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:59 pm

That sure seems like a cat. 4 to me... I mean, 115 knots? Yeah!

canegrl04 · #85 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:02 pm

Our local met was showing the forcast track of Emily this afternoon.It had Emily at cat4 just as she crosses the Yucatan,then being a cat 2 or 3 at landfall.That don't sound right :roll:

wxwatcher91 · #86 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:05 pm

wow a lot of power packed into a very little cane

well... I'm gonna doze off for a half an hour or so... be back for the 11pm advisory...

#87 Postby **MGC** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:06 pm

Knocking at the door of cat 4...MGC

clfenwi · #88 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:14 pm

Observation Number: 15
Time: 0200Z
Position: 12.1 N 68.4 W
Flight level winds: 16 knots//020
700 millibar height: 3136 meters

URNT11 KNHC 150203
97779 02004 60121 6840/ 30500 02016 0904/ /3136
RMK AF302 0405A EMILY OB 15

clfenwi · #89 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:18 pm

SUPPLEMENTAL VORTEX MESSAGE

Storm: Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 125KT (143.8mph 231.5km/h) In NE Quadrant At 01:29:10 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 112.5KT (129.4mph 208.3km/h) * (Report Time: 15/0212Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 13.5N 67.1W 125KT (143.75MPH 231.5km/h) [01:05:00Z to 01:25:50Z]
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 13.3N 67.1W 094KT (108.1MPH 174.1km/h) [01:35:50Z to 02:00:40Z]
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
O01 14.5N 66.1W 700mb Height @ 3154m 8°C 5°C 048KT (55.2MPH 88.9 km/h) @ 120°
O02 14.3N 66.3W 700mb Height @ 3146m 8°C 5°C 051KT (58.65MPH 94.5 km/h) @ 130°
O03 14.2N 66.4W 700mb Height @ 3137m 8°C 7°C 056KT (64.4MPH 103.7 km/h) @ 120°
O04 14.0N 66.6W 700mb Height @ 3122m 8°C 6°C 063KT (72.45MPH 116.7 km/h) @ 120°
O05 13.8N 66.8W 700mb Height @ 3096m 6°C 6°C 061KT (70.15MPH 113.0 km/h) @ 120°
O06 13.6N 67.0W 700mb Height @ 3037m 8°C 8°C 081KT (93.15MPH 150.0 km/h) @ 120°
O01 13.2N 67.3W 700mb Height @ 3047m 8°C 8°C 040KT (46MPH 74.1 km/h) @ 300°
O02 13.0N 67.4W 700mb Height @ 3095m 7°C 7°C 025KT (28.75MPH 46.3 km/h) @ 320°
O03 12.8N 67.6W 700mb Height @ 3114m 8°C 8°C 017KT (19.55MPH 31.5 km/h) @ 330°
O04 12.7N 67.8W 700mb Height @ 3124m 9°C 7°C 018KT (20.7MPH 33.3 km/h) @ 340°
O05 12.5N 68.0W 700mb Height @ 3131m 8°C 6°C 021KT (24.15MPH 38.9 km/h) @ 360°
O06 12.3N 68.2W 700mb Height @ 3133m 9°C 5°C 026KT (29.9MPH 48.1 km/h) @ 10°
O07 12.1N 68.4W 700mb Height @ 3136m 9°C 4°C 016KT (18.4MPH 29.6 km/h) @ 20

OB 16

clfenwi · #90 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:27 pm

Recon stopped heading southwest at about 0203Z and is now headed east-northeast

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #91 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:39 pm

So they found 125 knots=140 mph flight level or just short of 130 mph. If this the find stronger winds on this past we may have it....

clfenwi · #92 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:42 pm

Odd that we haven't seen the corresponding dropsonde obs for the most recent vortex message... I was curious as to what kind of winds the eyewall dropsonde was going to show...

clfenwi · #93 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:44 pm

Observation Number: 17
Time: 0236Z
Position: 12.2 North // 66.4 West
Flight level winds: 32 knots // 170
700 millibar height: 3150 meters

URNT11 KNHC 150239
97779 02364 60122 6640/ 30500 17032 0805/ /3150
RMK AF302 0405A EMILY OB 17

gkrangers · #94 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:46 pm

clfenwi wrote:Observation Number: 17
Time: 0236Z
Position: 12.2 North // 66.4 West
Flight level winds: 32 knots // 170
700 millibar height: 3150 meters

URNT11 KNHC 150239
97779 02364 60122 6640/ 30500 17032 0805/ /3150
RMK AF302 0405A EMILY OB 17

If they are going ENE they might be positioning for a SE-NW pass, since they already did NE-SW. They'll get the two other quadrants now maybe.

clfenwi · #95 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:58 pm

gkrangers wrote:
clfenwi wrote:Observation Number: 17
Time: 0236Z
Position: 12.2 North // 66.4 West
Flight level winds: 32 knots // 170
700 millibar height: 3150 meters

URNT11 KNHC 150239
97779 02364 60122 6640/ 30500 17032 0805/ /3150
RMK AF302 0405A EMILY OB 17
If they are going ENE they might be positioning for a SE-NW pass, since they already did NE-SW. They'll get the two other quadrants now maybe.

After coming off the sw course, this was as far east as they got

0236 1214N 06622W

after that point, they cut back to the west on a north-northwest course

most recent position

0250 1255N 06701W

gkrangers · #96 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:59 pm

Well I don't feel like plotting...so...whats it look like they are gonna do? SW-NE pass again?

clfenwi · #97 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:02 pm

gkrangers wrote:Well I don't feel like plotting...so...whats it look like they are gonna do? SW-NE pass again?

Well, they are either cris-crossing the quadrants or setting up for a nw-se pass... can't tell yet..

Scorpion · #98 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:17 pm

125 knots FL supports 130 mph, so why did they keep it at 125?

gkrangers · #99 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:22 pm

Scorpion wrote:125 knots FL supports 130 mph, so why did they keep it at 125?

ARRGGHadghag;sdfsfadfaasdfajg;lgf just let it go man.

Scorpion · #100 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:23 pm

Whatever I won't comment on their decisions anymore.

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