11pm NHC Discussion on Emily

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Stormcenter
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11pm NHC Discussion on Emily

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:09 pm

Very interesting quote at the end of the 11pm NHC discussion on Emily. I think this storm has the makings of Texas storm. IMO


However...especially beyond that time...the overall
guidance envelope has shifted quite significantly to the north.
The official forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous
track...by an increasing amount beyond 48 hours...but remains on
the left side of the dynamical models.

Forecaster Knabb
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#2 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:11 pm

i think they are prediciting it to south.. i bet in the morning it will be far north..
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Re: 11pm NHC Discussion on Emily

#3 Postby Ixolib » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:11 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Very interesting quote at the end of the 11pm NHC discussion on Emily. I think this storm has the makings of Texas storm. IMO


However...especially beyond that time...the overall
guidance envelope has shifted quite significantly to the north.
The official forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous
track...by an increasing amount beyond 48 hours...but remains on
the left side of the dynamical models.

Forecaster Knabb


With the key word being "significantly"...
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#4 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:12 pm

The most significant part of that snippet is this:

by an increasing amount beyond 48 hours
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#5 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:15 pm

Well I want to go to sleep so I can see what the NHC has in the morning. :lol:
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Re: 11pm NHC Discussion on Emily

#6 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:16 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Very interesting quote at the end of the 11pm NHC discussion on Emily. I think this storm has the makings of Texas storm. IMO


I agree... and I'm starting to wonder if my "like Allen" thinking will be too far south...
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#7 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:17 pm

so wait.. they said the track may signifaclly change.. moving it way north... am i correct?
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#8 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:19 pm

hicksta wrote:so wait.. they said the track may signifaclly change.. moving it way north... am i correct?
No, they said the model guidance shifted significantly north.

The NHC track was shifted slightly north, but its on the south side of the model guidance. IF the models continue to show a more north track, the NHC track may shift further north.
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#9 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:21 pm

I think Emily has a few surprises for everyone in about 48 hours.
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#10 Postby MGC » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:22 pm

Emily had better hit Jamiaca or the Yucatan and weaken some. The waters in the western GOM are cooking and when Emily gets there (if she does) it could spell trouble.....MGC
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Re: 11pm NHC Discussion on Emily

#11 Postby Mac » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:25 pm

Brent wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Very interesting quote at the end of the 11pm NHC discussion on Emily. I think this storm has the makings of Texas storm. IMO


I agree... and I'm starting to wonder if my "like Allen" thinking will be too far south...


See, Brent? My oil rig magnet theory may not be so whacky after all, eh? :P
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#12 Postby Ixolib » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:26 pm

In tropical-eese, what do the phrases "quite significantly" and "by an increasing amount" really mean? In other words, are we talking hundreds or tens of miles??
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#13 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:28 pm

Ixolib wrote:In tropical-eese, what do the phrases "quite significantly" and "by an increasing amount" really mean? In other words, are we talking hundreds or tens of miles??
Hundreds of miles, in my opinion.
Last edited by gkrangers on Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#14 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:29 pm

If the low around SA continues to stay there like the nam is forcasting wouldnt it allow a more N movement..
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#15 Postby Windy » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:36 pm

The main jist of this advisory is this: if you're the "be prepared before your neighbors type", it probably is a good idea to get some of your hurricane supplies going now if you live anywhere from Houston to Brownsville. The storm may not impact you, but Texas is overdue for a major cane and I would guess that a good number of people are not prepared... which means the rush on supplies if something DOES happen will be rather large.
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#16 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:46 pm

hicksta wrote:If the low around SA continues to stay there like the nam is forcasting wouldnt it allow a more N movement..

What's SA
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#17 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:49 pm

tailgater wrote:
hicksta wrote:If the low around SA continues to stay there like the nam is forcasting wouldnt it allow a more N movement..

What's SA
South America.
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#18 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:56 pm

gkrangers wrote:
tailgater wrote:
hicksta wrote:If the low around SA continues to stay there like the nam is forcasting wouldnt it allow a more N movement..

What's SA
South America.


san antonio.
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#19 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:16 am

Its headed more north than they thought I guess
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Re: 11pm NHC Discussion on Emily

#20 Postby otowntiger » Fri Jul 15, 2005 5:24 am

Stormcenter wrote:Very interesting quote at the end of the 11pm NHC discussion on Emily. I think this storm has the makings of Texas storm. IMO


However...especially beyond that time...the overall
guidance envelope has shifted quite significantly to the north.
The official forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous
track...by an increasing amount beyond 48 hours...but remains on
the left side of the dynamical models.

Forecaster Knabb


This morning is a whole 'nother story!
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