Is there a Reason for this or just pure luck?

[beachbum_al]

First there was Ivan which the official track took it near Mobile Bay. It turned just a little which put it in Gulf Shores. Once again my town was spared. Then Dennis came full force up the Gulf and the path was Mobile Bay. In the wee hours of Sunday morning we watched from dh's office in Daphne the storm jog to the North. Is there a reason for this or just pure luck?

[mtm4319]

I think it's just luck -- but good luck for those of us in Mobile.

[BamaMan]

DEFINITELY !!

[mobilebay]

I think the NHC hit it on the head. Anyone that says a Cyclone is supposed to come to Mobilebay doesn't understand Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. When forecasters say mobile should sustain a direct hit, that means within 90 miles either direction. I agree though we have been lucky with both storms. However, I think the NHC did a fabulous job calling for landfall where they did. They Called a pensacola landfall while Dennis was in the Central Caribbean. Also, they stuck with it even when the most of the models had shifted into Mississippi. Mobile did score a direct hit with both Ivan and Dennis.

[beachbum_al]

I would like to keep it that way. Storms not going into Mobile Bay or nearby. I saw what Ivan did to the Alabama Coast (Gulf Shores and Orange Beach) and the Florida Coast. And Dennis? The Florida Coast took a beating.

[mtm4319]

I think the NHC hit it on the head. Anyone that says a Cyclone is supposed to come to Mobilebay doesn't understand Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. When forecasters say mobile should sustain a direct hit, that means within 90 miles either direction. I agree though we have been lucky with both storms. However, I think the NHC did a fabulous job calling for landfall where they did. They Called a pensacola landfall while Dennis was in the Central Caribbean. Also, they stuck with it even when the most of the models had shifted into Mississippi. Mobile did score a direct hit with both Ivan and Dennis.

Even though Dennis made landfall less than 65 miles from downtown Mobile, and passed within 50 miles of Mobile as it went north through the Panhandle, I wouldn't quite say Dennis made a direct hit. It was arguable for Ivan, but probably not for Dennis.

[gkrangers]

Aliens.

[Skywatch_NC]

I think the NHC hit it on the head. Anyone that says a Cyclone is supposed to come to Mobilebay doesn't understand Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. When forecasters say mobile should sustain a direct hit, that means within 90 miles either direction. I agree though we have been lucky with both storms. However, I think the NHC did a fabulous job calling for landfall where they did. They Called a pensacola landfall while Dennis was in the Central Caribbean. Also, they stuck with it even when the most of the models had shifted into Mississippi. Mobile did score a direct hit with both Ivan and Dennis.

Even though Dennis made landfall less than 65 miles from downtown Mobile, and passed within 50 miles of Mobile as it went north through the Panhandle, I wouldn't quite say Dennis made a direct hit. It was arguable for Ivan, but probably not for Dennis.

I was gonna say the same thing. Just looking at the tamer conditions with Mike Seidel there in Mobile reporting...compared to the organized chaos where Jim Cantore, Mike Bettes, etc., were.

[Hurricaneman]

Alabama has hit the weakening hurricane lottery lately

[sprink52]

If there is any bright side to Dennis it's the fact that he had a very tight wind field and moved through very quickly. Imagine a storm like Frances that had a HUGE wind field and stayed over us for 36 hours. In terms of torture and wide spread effect,choose a powerful fast moving small storm over a slow moving big Cat 2 storm.

[Brent]

Alabama has hit the weakening hurricane lottery lately

It's probably our governors... we've gone through more than any state I know. Haven't had a two-term governor in who knows how long(Fob James don't count since he switched parties ) and now Siegelman wants to run again. Anyone but him...

[beachbum_al]

Maybe the hurricanes are scared of Alabama. Yes, Dennis did it hit Florida. We didn't have much weather from Dennis. Just rain and mild wind all day but nothing to do damage. Even the Coast was spare from what I could tell when we went down to Orange Beach.