Invest 99L Becoming better organized

[wxwatcher91]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 150118
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050715 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050715 0000 050715 1200 050716 0000 050716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 43.0W 16.8N 45.1W 17.9N 47.2W 19.1N 49.3W
BAMM 15.8N 43.0W 16.9N 45.4W 18.2N 47.7W 19.4N 49.9W
A98E 15.8N 43.0W 16.3N 45.4W 17.4N 47.6W 19.2N 49.5W
LBAR 15.8N 43.0W 17.1N 45.3W 18.6N 47.7W 20.3N 50.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050717 0000 050718 0000 050719 0000 050720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.5N 51.7W 23.3N 56.8W 26.0N 61.1W 27.2N 62.8W
BAMM 20.8N 52.2W 23.2N 57.2W 25.7N 61.9W 27.1N 64.2W
A98E 21.4N 51.4W 25.7N 56.1W 28.4N 58.6W 28.3N 53.9W
LBAR 22.3N 52.7W 26.4N 56.7W 30.5N 56.9W 30.4N 49.8W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 57KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 43.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 40.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 37.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Latest satellite loops show that the LLC has become even better oreganized. But much of the deep convection is off to the northeast. It is cetnered at 15.5 north/44 west...Moving westward. The last few frames shows a system that is slowly becoming better oreganized. In also the last few frames show that the upper level shear the was moving at it head on is now diving southeastwards to the south of the system. Which is a reason why some of the deep convection is starting to slowly move over the center.

As the system moves west to west-northwest over the next 24 to 36 hours. The seasurface temperatures should increase....I expect a tropical depression with in the next 36 hours. In I also expect with that overall appearce of the system a strong tropical storm heading northward into the Atlantic by 60 hours....

[Rebelstorm]

Link?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Go to floater one...The LLC is displaced to the southwest of the deep convection moving westward. If that deep convection. If that shear relaxs this could become oreganized very fast. center 15.5 north/44 west....

[HURAKAN]

The system could become a TD at any minute, if the shear relaxes, we have a TD.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Very much so HUK, the LLC is to the southwest of that large are of convection. But if the shear relaxes this could become oreganized very fast.

[HurricaneJoe22]

wouldn't this keep moving W to WNW under the ridge?

[Wnghs2007]

From the TWO tonight

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT... BUT SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH... OVER WARMER WATERS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC has becomed much better defined. But they need to see quickscat data for them to say anything. Also the ball of convection forming to the northeast is starting to move slowly closer to the LLC. If shear relaxs this could develop quite fast. So I think we might have a tropical storm by 36 to 48 hours. Kind of Like Danny of 2003 but only a strong tropical storm. One of the reasons for my thinking is once it takes off more to the north it will likely be moving more with the shear/Which will stack the upper in the lower levels.

[Hurricaneman]

Agreed

[Wnghs2007]

This storm definately looks like a fairly organized Tropical Depression...I wonder what Dvorak numbers read it as now.

Kevin Cho

14/2345 UTC 14.9N 42.7W TOO WEAK 99


There is what they Read....they say this on Emily

14/2345 UTC 13.4N 66.6W T6.0/6.0 EMILY

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC has closed off by latest satellite. It is now very defined it is centered at 17 north/45 west moving west-northwest. Over the last few frames a area of convection has started to form just to the east of the LLC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is really trying to form convection over the well defined LLC now. A new blow up of convection has formed over the LLC. But most of its getting blown to the East or northeast. I think the LLC is closed at the surface....Darn I wish there was real data out there. In there appears to be enough oreganizion/convection to think about upgrading.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

This appears more oreganized then tropical depression 10 last year was.


If it was not for the shear this would be on its way to becoming quite strong.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Boooooooooooooooooom!!!!!!!!!!! Convection has developed big time over the last 30 minute....The LLC is on the Eastern side of that big blow up. If this keeps getting more oreganized then Advisories need to be issued at 11am. It is doing this in the face of shear.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[TampaFl]

Boooooooooooooooooom!!!!!!!!!!! Convection has developed big time over the last 30 minute....The LLC is on the Eastern side of that big blow up. If this keeps getting more oreganized then Advisories need to be issued at 11am. It is doing this in the face of shear.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[johngaltfla]

I guess Mother Nature is going to show 1933 that it was nuthin.

[wxwatcher91]

no TD at 5am

here's the TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150924
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILY...LOCATED ABOUT 580 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEN MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$