Here is what the 00Z Globals are saying!

clfenwi · #121 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:17 am

European model is further north than any of its previous runs with Emily...still has a Yucatan Peninsula hit (just after 72 hours)...then to near mouth of Rio Grande at 120 hours...sharp left turn brings it into Mexico between then and 144 hours...

http://tinyurl.com/buv6e

dwg71 · #122 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:18 am

anybody know where to get the 06z plots, they should be available any second now

#123 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:19 am

i'm beginning to worry about this sharp left turn - i want it to occur - but if it's something the models are picking up on, this may end up being a doozie to predict

HouTXmetro · #124 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:23 am

Sounds like we have a Claudette copy cat.

#125 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:25 am

...and it looks like all the Texans are awake! :wink:

#126 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:30 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Sounds like we have a Claudette copy cat.

As long as the copycatting is far south of here that will be fine.

Anonymous · #127 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:35 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Sounds like we have a Claudette copy cat.

Please do not say that!! Claudette cost me a new roof and a new brick court yard that a tree came crashing down on, and not to mention countless hours of clean up and blisters :roll:

dwg71 · #128 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:42 am

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Models seem to be clustering again, south texas, this run...

Shoshana · #129 Postby **Shoshana** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:54 am

jschlitz wrote:...and it looks like all the Texans are awake!

Hey y'all!

'shana

#130 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:58 am

Hey Texan

otowntiger · #131 Postby **otowntiger** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 5:22 am

dwg71 wrote:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Models seem to be clustering again, south texas, this run...

It would seem that for any of them to verify she's going to have to start gaining in lattitude pretty quick! Look at her history and the line of her current motion. If she doesn't pull up soon, she'll be lucky to taste the GOM.

dwg71 · #132 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:06 am

otowntiger wrote:
dwg71 wrote:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Models seem to be clustering again, south texas, this run...

It would seem that for any of them to verify she's going to have to start gaining in lattitude pretty quick! Look at her history and the line of her current motion. If she doesn't pull up soon, she'll be lucky to taste the GOM.

I agree looking at the water vapor image you can see the ridge is holding in place nicely. Im hoping it stays on 285 heading.

KatDaddy · #133 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:18 am

The ridge may not be as strong by early next week. Do not be surprised if Emily is further N than models depict.

From New Orleans AFD:

...THE GFS MAY BE MULTIPLYING THE 2 DEGREE
WARMER ERROR CAUSING THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHOW UP MUCH WEAKER IN
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THAN WHAT IT MAY ACTUALLY BE.

IM JUST VERY HAPPY THAT EMILY IS NOT CLOSER TO US AT THIS POINT
WITH THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EAST TX.

JenBayles · #134 Postby **JenBayles** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:03 am

KatDaddy wrote:The ridge may not be as strong by early next week. Do not be surprised if Emily is further N than models depict.

From New Orleans AFD:

...THE GFS MAY BE MULTIPLYING THE 2 DEGREE
WARMER ERROR CAUSING THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHOW UP MUCH WEAKER IN
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THAN WHAT IT MAY ACTUALLY BE.

IM JUST VERY HAPPY THAT EMILY IS NOT CLOSER TO US AT THIS POINT
WITH THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EAST TX.

They had to say it....... they just HAD to say it.....

:eek:

Website · #135 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:20 am

southerngale wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
hicksta wrote:you must of been an abused child..

Nice to see you working on a banning your first day...

You need to chill out a little hicksta, aka texasheat, aka reeef and pick which username you want. We need to inactivate the others. Thanks!

rockyman · #136 Postby **rockyman** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:40 am

This has probably already been posted..but the 00z MM5 shows Emily going north of Jamaica then hitting near the TX/LA border:

Here's the loop:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005071500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

#137 Postby **alicia-w** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:53 am

wow, that's significantly different than everything I've seen thus far. I dont like it either.

#138 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:01 am

dwg71 wrote:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Models seem to be clustering again, south texas, this run...

Interesting.

I still have my doubts she will go in that far south.

canegrl04 · #139 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:09 am

If Emily hits near the TX/LA border,she'll bring copious amounts of rainfall to us in the Dallas area :eek:

#140 Postby **alicia-w** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:28 am

Does the 60 hour point or so on that animation seem to correlate with the activity on the west coast of central America???

Here is what the 00Z Globals are saying!

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