Confidence

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm hoping the projected path verifies, but, to be quite honest, I'm very uncomfortable with anything more than 3 days out. I'm not worried about this storm, but, I'm watching. Hopefully, this will be the time that computer models "show us," exactly what they are thinking, but, I clock this storm anywhere from Tampico, Mexico to Lafayette, LA, right now. Like I said, I've seen too many strange things to believe that this storm will absolutely remain on a Western Path clear to Texas. It could happen, but, I would never be so arrogant to claim it as a given. Hurricanes are just not that predictable, in my opinion.

[hicksta]

nicely said.

[Swimdude]

Absolutely. The spastic model predictions of Cindy keep going through my head...

[djtil]

i disagree, hurricanes are completely predictable....assuming their surroundings are 100% known.

[HurriCat]

And as we all know, nature is exactly the arena for knowing stuff "100%"

...and "assuming".

Aw, c'mon. We can get it mostly right, sometimes. Sort of.

Did anyone predict the 360 that Jeanne did?

(waiting)

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, Emily is up to a category 4, now. She can make her own path, regardless of what is in front of her as she is moving at a strong 20mph. She won't make much of a turn until she slows down. However, again, I'm hearing talk of Emily possibly going stationery in the SW Central GOM. I just think we need to watch this system. This could, likely, be a Texas storm. But, as I said earlier, alot of things could change past 3 days...

[Pebbles]

Well, Emily is up to a category 4, now. She can make her own path, regardless of what is in front of her as she is moving at a strong 20mph. She won't make much of a turn until she slows down. However, again, I'm hearing talk of Emily possibly going stationery in the SW Central GOM. I just think we need to watch this system. This could, likely, be a Texas storm. But, as I said earlier, alot of things could change past 3 days...

Hurricanes can't make their own path *grins* they go the path of least resistance no matter how strong they are.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, Emily is up to a category 4, now. She can make her own path, regardless of what is in front of her as she is moving at a strong 20mph. She won't make much of a turn until she slows down. However, again, I'm hearing talk of Emily possibly going stationery in the SW Central GOM. I just think we need to watch this system. This could, likely, be a Texas storm. But, as I said earlier, alot of things could change past 3 days...

Hurricanes can't make their own path *grins* they go the path of least resistance no matter how strong they are.

Pebbles, I have to disagree. The more powerful the system, the more powerful the adrenalin. And the stronger the system, the stronger the influencing high pressure on top of the hurricane, moves things out of the way. And when a system reaches "major," status, they don't change direction unless they are moving under 10 mph.

[Pebbles]

Hurricanes can't make their own path *grins* they go the path of least resistance no matter how strong they are.

Pebbles, I have to disagree. The more powerful the system, the more powerful the adrenalin. And the stronger the system, the stronger the influencing high pressure on top of the hurricane, moves things out of the way. And when a system reaches "major," status, they don't change direction unless they are moving under 10 mph.

OK so your saying a cat 4 is going to plow right into a 500mb ridge and just push it out of it's way because it's going over 10mph? NO.... not buying it! And they don't turn if they are going over 10mph! ok that I couldn't disagree with more!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Hurricanes can't make their own path *grins* they go the path of least resistance no matter how strong they are.

Pebbles, I have to disagree. The more powerful the system, the more powerful the adrenalin. And the stronger the system, the stronger the influencing high pressure on top of the hurricane, moves things out of the way. And when a system reaches "major," status, they don't change direction unless they are moving under 10 mph.

OK so your saying a cat 4 is going to plow right into a 500mb ridge and just push it out of it's way because it's going over 10mph? NO.... not buying it! And they don't turn if they are going over 10mph! ok that I couldn't disagree with more!

OK...no biggie. We disagree. Once a hurricane surpasses category 3, I think it takes a life of it's own and influences the weather in front of it (including moving systems out of the way). And you don't. That's cool. I just think you are wrong and you think I am wrong, as well. Next....

[Pebbles]

I'm cool with disagreeing I am truly hoping someone better at explaining why strong hurricanes are effected by troughs and ridges and do turn will come along and discuss this. I'm too tired and don't want to give out disinformation along these lines as it's an important discussion

[NC George]

[

OK so your saying a cat 4 is going to plow right into a 500mb ridge and just push it out of it's way because it's going over 10mph? NO.... not buying it! And they don't turn if they are going over 10mph! ok that I couldn't disagree with more!

But he could be saying that a cat 4 isn't going to approach a 500mb ridge at 10 mph, it will either slow down and wait for the ridge to pass, or slow down and turn.

[Pebbles]

[

OK so your saying a cat 4 is going to plow right into a 500mb ridge and just push it out of it's way because it's going over 10mph? NO.... not buying it! And they don't turn if they are going over 10mph! ok that I couldn't disagree with more!

But he could be saying that a cat 4 isn't going to approach a 500mb ridge at 10 mph, it will either slow down and wait for the ridge to pass, or slow down and turn.

Now that I agree with! But he said

Once a hurricane surpasses category 3, I think it takes a life of it's own and influences the weather in front of it (including moving systems out of the way)

It can't move the ridge.. the ridge effects it.. thus

She can make her own path, regardless of what is in front of her as she is moving at a strong 20mph

is inaccurate, the ridge will make her slow down...not her moving the ridge....

[mobilebay]

Pebbles you are absolutely correct. A hurricane takes what it is given. You did not see Dennis plowing through that 500MB ridge to hit Florida as some suggested.