Emily Weakening....or just reorganizing?

Hurricane Cheese · #1 Postby **Hurricane Cheese** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 am

Alright, someone had to start a thread on this...

The eye is no longer apparent on the IR, and the storm doesn't seem quite as impressive as earlier today....

What gives? ERC? Encountering a lil shear?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:51 am

What I see is that the cdo is getting slightly bigger/expending. Look at the northwest quad(I would need a few more frames to confirm it) Could be outflow returning. The shear is backing/Retragrading slowly. I think this will likely spin back up fast.

Huckster · #3 Postby **Huckster** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:59 am

I doubt the storm is weakening. These kinds of fluctuations in appearance are common and not necessarily indicative of an overall weakening. I agree with Matt...the NW quadrant of the storm looks better. In fact, the whole western semi-circle of the storm looks better. It seems that the outflow is improving there, and if that's the case, at least holding its own is almost guaranteed, and further strengthening is a distinct possibility.

Derek Ortt · #4 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:09 am

whats going on with the NHC sat loops? That one says 1515 UTC

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #5 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:11 am

It says 7:15 Utc to me.

Derek Ortt · #6 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:24 am

it was my browser. Had to delete the cookies

does look to have weakened somewhat. The eye is very poorly defined

Thunder44 · #7 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:55 am

If I didn't know any better, I would think she was just a cluster of thunderstorms.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #8 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:57 am

A big suprize that would be....On the radar shows that it has a well defined eye. It has not changed that much. The eye is just clouded over at this time. The eye is 10 nmi wide. Plus outflow is improving slowly...

bahamaswx · #9 Postby **bahamaswx** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:59 am

Agreed. The eye is TINY, and while it is indeed there, it's simply too small and clouded over to appear on satellite.

wxwatcher91 · #10 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 5:16 am

NHC mentioned a possible EWRC in their discussion

HurricaneGirl · #11 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:45 am

Yup! EWRC.

stormie_skies · #12 Postby **stormie_skies** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:22 am

Thats what Im betting on, too .... she is much bigger and looks much better than she did when I went to sleep last night....here's betting she just needed a wider eye to go with her growing body... :wink:

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:24 am

12 mb pressure rise since last recon so more weak.[/b]

#14 Postby **EDR1222** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:35 am

She looks weaker to me than she did last night.

Maybe some of the shear got to her

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:53 am

She is weakening, just a little bit, because she is reorganizing. Once the second eyewall takes over, then Emily will begin to restrengthen.

#16 Postby **Wthrman13** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:02 am

HURAKAN wrote:She is weakening, just a little bit, because she is reorganizing. Once the second eyewall takes over, then Emily will begin to restrengthen.

There is a large upper level low very apparent on water vapor centered over the Bahamas, with a large area of westerly upper-level winds basically covering the entire western Carribbean. Some of this can be clearly seen impacting Emily on the SW side. This has probably contributed to weakening, and could very well keep it in check through its entire trek through the western Carribbean. Shear is a notoriously difficult parameter to forecast because it depends on getting the wind speeds and directions right at multiple levels in the atmosphere.

djtil · #17 Postby **djtil** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:06 am

shear is really becoming evident on IR.......i look for a little further weakening until it subsides.

#18 Postby **MGC** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:07 am

Emily is moving into an area of increasing UL shear. I doubt Emily gets back to cat 4 intensity. Hopefully she will weaken even more as she approaches the Yucatan......MGC

Derecho · #19 Postby **Derecho** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:50 am

There's always a weird sort of denial that goes on when a storm actually does weaken significantly and for a good period of time... ITS JUST REORGANIZING NO REALLY IT IS THIS IS VERY TEMPORARY IT WILL START STRENTGTHENING AGAIN FIVE MINUTES FROM NOW ITS JUST AN EWRC BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH....

In this case it happened to coincide with an actual eyewall replacement but you'd have to be blind not to see the significant shear, erosion of convection, and massive surface outflow boundary vomited out to the west.....until the westerly shear lets up, and that may be quite a while, it's not going to get back to what it was late last night.

djtil · #20 Postby **djtil** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:41 pm

its the nature of the beast.

the average weather fan wants a strong storm and they want it to hit the US.......and anything or anyone who suggests that the above 2 may not be happening is met with skepticism.....just ask Avila :lol:

Emily Weakening....or just reorganizing?

Emily Weakening....or just reorganizing?

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