Emily growing?

#1 Postby **Windy** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:04 am

Emily appears to have grown to be about 1.5 times larger in the latest IR loop. Though her eye seems to have momentariliy winked out.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:07 am

Its Cdo has grown greatly over the past hour or so. The reds have formed more near the center. In Radar out of the ABC islands shows a very well defined Eye. Which is 10 nmi wide. Outflow is starting to improve which could lead to this getting stronger. In another factor is the TCHP over the western caribbean is the most powerful/has the most kick off all of the Atlatnic. This area made Mitch,Allen,Gilbert what it was. If that trough keeps retragrading watch this thing closely.

wxwatcher91 · #3 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 5:13 am

yep hurricane force winds now extend out up to 40mi

#4 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:35 am

... and the trend is continuing. As DT suggested last night on Mike Watkins' hurricane radio program, Emily is growing in size now that she's moving further away from land and into the central Caribbean.

stormie_skies · #5 Postby **stormie_skies** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:40 am

She does look quite a bit bigger this morning.....someone needs to tell Miss Em to try the Atkins diet.... :lol:

If this weakening is being caused by a EWRC (seems most likely to me) instead of by shear, then it should only be temporary. Miss Em will prolly pop out a new eye that fits her expanded waistline a bit better, and she will keep heading into warmer and warmer waters until she approaches the Yucatan...

I sure wouldn't wanna be in Cancun this weekend... :cry:

InimanaChoogamaga · #6 Postby **InimanaChoogamaga** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:56 am

You are correct. She is no longer petite and might even be heading toward the plus-size department.

#7 Postby **EDR1222** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:57 am

Maybe some not necessarily good news, but better news for wherever Emily ends up

From 11 AM NHC discussion:

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE
UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL IS SHOWING
INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WERE WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AND THEY
STILL DO...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME LARGER INSTEAD. THEREFORE...
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT ASSUMING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL
LIKELY BE PARTIALLY CORRECT IN FORECASTING A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...EMILY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS MAJOR HURRICANE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ONCE EMILY CROSSES YUCATAN AND
WEAKENS...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO.

Emily growing?

Emily growing?

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