invest 99 image (what did it just do?)

[wayoutfront]

heres the loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and heres the result

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks like it has developed a LLC. In which that deep convection has just covered. I expect a tropical depression very soon.

[wayoutfront]

it appears to have jumped SW

[wxman57]

Here's a visible shot of the developing storm. Looks like maybe an LLC to the southwest side of convection:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin2.gif">

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I been watching it all night long become better oreganized. The LLC is mostly covered under that ball of convection. But some of the western side is still exposed. This thing should if it keeps this up become a tropical depression.

[wxwatcher91]

heres the loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and heres the result

uh... is it just me or does 99L have an eye???

[ericinmia]

That would be physically impossible at this stage, but it is probably just a localized burst of high/lower convection.

[wayoutfront]

i know its the IR imaging playing games with the bursts, but it does look prettier than emily




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[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The ciruatlion is getting stronger....As long as that convection stays over or near the LLC it will get stronger. I would not be suprized if they wait intill 5pm for it to be upgraded to a tropical storm. This thing is looking better then Cindy.

[Deenac813]

But since it is so far north now it will probably be a fish right??

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it will likely be a fish. But once this forms we will have the most named systems in before August in history...

[jlauderdal]

That would be physically impossible at this stage, but it is probably just a localized burst of high/lower convection.

what would be physically impossible? please use quotes in the future.

thanks,
jlauderdal

[jabber]

Yeah it will likely be a fish. But once this forms we will have the most named systems in before August in history...

Looks like it might be trying to sneak under the ridge.... Models are starting to trend more west.... Stranger things have happend this season already.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it will likely be a fish. But once this forms we will have the most named systems in before August in history...

Looks like it might be trying to sneak under the ridge.... Models are starting to trend more west.... Stranger things have happend this season already.

I would not be suprized at all...

[Steve H.]

The only reason it looks like it jumped SW is because the circulation is on the SW portion of that cluster of T'Storms. It is moving generally west or WNW. It has slowed its forward motion some since last night. We'll see if it gets picked up by the westerlies or continues westward over the next couple of days. I'll bet better than even odds that it will continue toward the WNW, then we'll see if it ridging is still strong enuf to pull it westward.

[alicia-w]

That would be physically impossible at this stage, but it is probably just a localized burst of high/lower convection.

what would be physically impossible? please use quotes in the future.

thanks,
jlauderdal

i'm pretty sure he meant it's physically impossible for 99L to have an eye at this stage of the game.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like there is a small, but not well-defined circulation.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There has been hundreds of systems that did not show very good on the quickscat. In theres 40 knot winds...So it would be upgraded to a tropical storm.

[x-y-no]

I can't see any west wind component in the visible loop yet, although that QS is certainly suggestive.

If it doesn't have a closed circulation already, I think it gets one later in the day.

Jan

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I been seeing a closed cirualtion for the last 6 hours....