H Emily Recon Reports

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cycloneye
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H Emily Recon Reports

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 5:37 am

New Thread for the reports from recon starting with this mornings mission.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:15 pm, edited 9 times in total.
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#2 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:10 am

URNT11 KNHC 151057
97779 10514 60168 66100 67000 10017 64698 /8040
RMK AF304 0505A EMILY OB 01

They have taken off.

Time: 6:51 EDT
Location: 16.8N 66.1W
Flight Level Winds: East 17kts
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:27 am

713
URNT11 KNHC 151110
97779 11064 60161 67209 67100 09021 63678 /8039
RMK AF304 0505A EMILY OB 02

16.1n-67.2w
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:32 am

465
URNT11 KNHC 151127
97779 11224 60156 68318 30500 12048 10008 /3173
41045
RMK AF304 0505A EMILY OB 03

15.6n-68.3w
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#5 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:36 am

URNT11 KNHC 151131
97779 11274 60155 68618 30500 11054 08018 /3167
40945
RMK AF304 0505A EMILY OB 04
105NM NORTHEAST ENTRY POINT
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:39 am

1126. 1528N 06835W 03045 0158 107 052 080 028 052 03252 0000000000

15.2n-68.3w

They will not be in time for a vortex before the 8 AM advisorie.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:42 am

1136. 1503N 06907W 03049 0146 117 056 072 072 056 03244 0000000000

15.0n-69.0w
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:46 am

URNT11 KNHC 151131
97779 11274 60155 68618 30500 11054 08018 /3167
40945
RMK AF304 0505A EMILY OB 04
105NM NORTHEAST ENTRY POINT

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#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:02 am

1156. 1413N 07005W 03046 5183 143 040 152 114 046 02910 0000000000
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:20 am

125
URNT12 KNHC 151217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/11:57:20Z
B. 14 deg 11 min N
070 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2815 m
D. 60 kt
E. 49 deg 031 nm
F. 121 deg 126 kt
G. 44 deg 010 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 9 C/ 3048 m
J. 20 C/ 3046 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. CO/8/20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0505A EMILY OB 05
MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 11:54:30 Z

This is a cat 3 not a 4 now.12 Mb rise in pressure
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:24 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:21 am

n/m
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:22 am

12mbs higher than last fix. Not suprising.
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#13 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:27 am

964? Storm cancel. :P
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:27 am

It still has 126 knots flight level....Which they upgraded it to a cat4 based on 128 knots. The fact is a hurricane is made by its winds not its pressure. So with a larger eye that would mean higher pressure/less tight.
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#15 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:30 am

wow thats... thats... thats an ANTIbomb

do you think it will fall back down next fix?

ok the winds remain at 135
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#16 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:31 am

Yes, the EWRC that I thought was occurring last night did not occur at that time, but is occurring now. They found the eye open to the SW confirming what the ABC Islands radar is showing. There's a possibility that some shear is making its presence known on its western side as outflow has become restricted on that side.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130-135 mph with the latest recon report...
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#17 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:36 am

Yeah, I don't believe this is a permanent weakening.

It is being sheared a bit, but not massively. And it looks to me like the UL is backing off at that same pace as Emily is advancing, so the shear shouldn't get any worse.

Jan
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#18 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:41 am

Brent wrote:964? Storm cancel. :P


How about storm downgraded :D . But I believe this is also temporary too.
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#19 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:50 am

dropsonde obs related to last vortex message...

Observation Number:06
Time transmitted: 1219Z
Position: 14.2 N 70.1 W
Sea Level Pressure: 964 mb
Surface wind speed and direction: 28 knots // 115
925 millibar height: 366 meters
925 millibar winds: 30 knots // 115
850 millibar height: 1070 meters
850 millibar winds: 27 knots // 125
700 milllibar height: 2797 meters
700 millibar winds: 6 knots // 095
EYE 1420N 07015W

Observation Number:07
Time transmitted: 1229Z
Position: 14.3 North // 70.0 W
Sea Level Pressure: 972 mb
Surface wind speed and direction:n/a
925 millibar height: 434 meters
925 millibar winds: n/a
850 millibar height: 1168 meters
850 millibar winds: 128 knots // 125
EYEWALL 1431N 07013W
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Scorpion

#20 Postby Scorpion » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:23 am

What happened? Why the sudden weakening?
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