Will she reach Cat. 5? [Bump]

[beachbum_al]

I will have to say no. Maybe close to a 5 but I don't think it will make it. Of course I could be wrong!

[clfenwi]

As I have noted in previous threads, the water temperatures/heat content are there. Looking at the SST analysis, it looked like the area to watch out for was west of 80 degrees longitude. The records of Allen, Gilbert, and Ivan verify that's the area to watch out for. Allen's peak happened between 83.0 and 87.9, Gilbert's between 82 and 86, and Ivan's longest run at cat 5 happened between 82.3 and 85.6 .

So, what is going on in that area at this time? A low at 200-250 millibars centered north of Cuba (1) is putting about 15-20 knots into the face of Emily. The GFS shear forecast abates the shear caused by this, but not until the center Emily is right in the area; it still looks like it has destructive amounts of shear in the immediate vicinity.

I think this will be enough to keep her under category five status.

1 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

2 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Lowpressure]

ERC at 135 may suggest a peak in intensity at least in the Carib. Southern GOM may be another scenario, but I still vote 140-145 peak in GOM.

[Scorpion]

I used to think it was possible, but now with a 16 mb pressure rise it looks too far fetched. 968 mb! Has to deepen another 40-45 mb to see a Cat 5!

[The Big Dog]

I used to think it was possible, but now with a 16 mb pressure rise it looks too far fetched. 968 mb! Has to deepen another 40-45 mb to see a Cat 5!

It's a very small storm, so it might not have to deepen that far. 930 might do it.

[dhweather]

No.

Westerlies are ahead of her, and even though 2005 is mauling the record
books, I just don't see a cat 5 in mid-July. If this were August or
September, maybe so.

[KWT]

for all those who don't think a storm can make it to cat-5 in July,look at Dennis,it came within 6mph of doing so,if the storm hit a very hot spot and the shear was light and it had a good tight sturcture then there would be nothing to stop it from becoming a cat-5.

remember,it may July but that in its slef is not something that will stop it

[EDR1222]

I don't see her reaching Cat. 5 intensity. The environment out in front of her doesn't look as favorable today as initially thought according the NHC discussion at 11 AM.

[Stratusxpeye]

for all those who don't think a storm can make it to cat-5 in July,look at Dennis,it came within 6mph of doing so,if the storm hit a very hot spot and the shear was light and it had a good tight sturcture then there would be nothing to stop it from becoming a cat-5.

remember,it may July but that in its slef is not something that will stop it

There are discussions that dennis actually did reach cat 5 status. There were recon reports while center was just miles of the southeast coast of cuba that supported 155-160 winds but the recon report was late and the never publicised this information. So The month this year obviusly has nothing to do with how powerful it can get. All depends on the conditions. If there is as much shear as projected I don't see her being a cat 5 or even a powerful 4. It is possible though.

[Scorpion]

I was thinking Dennis was very close to Cat 5, as even the 150 knot FL winds in the publicized recon supported 135 knot surface winds.

[Stratusxpeye]

[quote="Scorpion"]I was thinking Dennis was very close to Cat 5, as even the 150 knot FL winds in the publicized recon supported 135 knot surface winds.

I'm wondering if there will be an investigation to have this hurricane changed in the future once they do all there analysis. I guess I'll just have to wait and see.

[Buck]

Yes.

[MGC]

No, upper level enviroment ahead of Emily is becoming hostile......MGC