H Emily Recon Reports

x-y-no · #21 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:32 am

Scorpion wrote:What happened? Why the sudden weakening?

Check out Derek Ortt's forecast thread in the analysis forum. He discusses this. Seems it's mostly an issue of westerly shear from the ULL retrograding ahead of the storm.

clfenwi · #22 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:08 am

VORTEX MESSAGE
Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #304
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 126KT (144.9mph 233.3km/h) In NE Quadrant At 11:54:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 113.4KT (130.4mph 210.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: RFACE CENTER DISPLACED FROM FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER
Date/Time of Recon Report: Invalid Date (Invalid Date)
Position of the center: 14° 16' N 070° 37' W (14.3°N 70.6°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2852m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 100KT (115MPH 185.2km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 008nm (9.2miles) From Center At Bearing 120°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 088KT (101.2mph 163.0km/h) From 208°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 008nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 120°
Minimum pressure: 968mb (28.59in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN S-SE
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Concentric , CO/8/25
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

observation time 1330Z

clfenwi · #23 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:12 am

Observation Number: 13
Time transmitted: 1359Z
Position: 14.2 North 70.5 West
Sea Level Pressure: 975 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 105 knots // 115
925 millibar height: 463 meters
925 millibar winds: 120 knots // 130
850 millibar height: 1199 meters
850 millibar winds: 108 knots // 150
700 millibar height: 2864 meters
700 millibar winds: 79 knots // 205

Scorpion · #24 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:14 am

Never seen such a high pressure and 126 knots. Thats insane. Nearing 970 and still a strong 3.

clfenwi · #25 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:17 am

Observation Number:14
Time transmitted: 1411Z
Position: 14.3 North // 70.6 West
Sea Level Pressure: 968 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 43 knots // 130
925 millibar height: 399 meters
925 millibar winds: 41 knots // 140
850 millibar height: 1141 meters
850 millibar winds: 34 knots // 165
700 millibar height: 2831 meters
700 millibar winds: 11 knots// 135
EYE

mf_dolphin · #26 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:20 am

x-y-no wrote:
Scorpion wrote:What happened? Why the sudden weakening?

Check out Derek Ortt's forecast thread in the analysis forum. He discusses this. Seems it's mostly an issue of westerly shear from the ULL retrograding ahead of the storm.

While I respect Derek's knowledge my money is that what we're seeing is more of an ERC than sheer induced. Once we don't see concentric eyes in the recon I bet she wraps right back up in intensity. :-)

clfenwi · #27 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:21 am

SUPPLEMENTAL VORTEX

Storm: Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #304
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 126KT (144.9mph 233.3km/h) In NE Quadrant At 11:54:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 113.4KT (130.4mph 210.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: RFACE CENTER DISPLACED FROM FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER (Report Time: 15/1415Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 14.2N 70.5W 088KT (101.2MPH 163.0km/h) [13:07:30Z to 13:26:20Z]
Inbound Surface Wind Observed At 30KT (34.5MPH 55.6km/h) @ 180°
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 14.4N 70.8W 090KT (103.5MPH 166.7km/h) [13:35:30Z to 13:58:40Z]
Outbound Surface Wind Observed At 30KT (34.5MPH 55.6km/h) @ 050°
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
I01 13.2N 69.5W 700mb Height @ 3143m 7°C 6°C 043KT (49.45MPH 79.6 km/h) @ 180°
I02 13.4N 69.7W 700mb Height @ 3132m 6°C 6°C 041KT (47.15MPH 75.9 km/h) @ 180°
I03 13.6N 69.9W 700mb Height @ 3123m 6°C 6°C 033KT (37.95MPH 61.1 km/h) @ 190°
I04 13.8N 70.1W 700mb Height @ 3118m 10°C 8°C 040KT (46MPH 74.1 km/h) @ 170°
I05 13.9N 70.2W 700mb Height @ 3100m 9°C 9°C 042KT (48.3MPH 77.8 km/h) @ 190°
I06 14.1N 70.4W 700mb Height @ 3039m 9°C 9°C 064KT (73.6MPH 118.5 km/h) @ 190°
O01 14.4N 70.9W 700mb Height @ 3005m 9°C 9°C 090KT (103.5MPH 166.7 km/h) @ 60°
O02 14.6N 71.0W 700mb Height @ 3095m 9°C 9°C 070KT (80.5MPH 129.6 km/h) @ 70°
O03 14.8N 71.2W 700mb Height @ 3125m 6°C 6°C 068KT (78.2MPH 125.9 km/h) @ 70°
O04 14.9N 71.4W 700mb Height @ 3136m 10°C 5°C 059KT (67.85MPH 109.3 km/h) @ 70°
O05 15.1N 71.6W 700mb Height @ 3148m 9°C 6°C 044KT (50.6MPH 81.5 km/h) @ 80°
O06 15.3N 71.8W 700mb Height @ 3150m 9°C 7°C 051KT (58.65MPH 94.5 km/h) @ 80°
O07 15.5N 71.9W 700mb Height @ 3158m 9°C 7°C 048KT (55.2MPH 88.9 km/h) @ 80°

As seen here, that last vortex was from a se-nw pass through the storm...

x-y-no · #28 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:29 am

mf_dolphin wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
Scorpion wrote:What happened? Why the sudden weakening?

Check out Derek Ortt's forecast thread in the analysis forum. He discusses this. Seems it's mostly an issue of westerly shear from the ULL retrograding ahead of the storm.

While I respect Derek's knowledge my money is that what we're seeing is more of an ERC than sheer induced. Once we don't see concentric eyes in the recon I bet she wraps right back up in intensity.

Yeah, that last vortex message clearly indicates a replacement cycle is in progress:

Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN S-SE
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Concentric , CO/8/25

Derecho · #29 Postby **Derecho** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:39 am

It's both westerly shear AND an eyewall replacement (a real eyewall replacement for a change, as recon reported CO eyewalls rather than the dozens of non-existent ones that get proclaimed on the boards these days.)

clfenwi · #30 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:56 am

1446. 1405N 07124W 03043 0082 338 031 090 090 032 03174 0000000000

Looks like they started a sw-ne pass at 1436Z ... based on past observation, looks like they'll go through the eye at around 1515Z...

clfenwi · #31 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:21 am

VORTEX MESSAGE
Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #304
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 126KT (144.9mph 233.3km/h) In NE Quadrant At 11:54:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 113.4KT (130.4mph 210.0km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Invalid Date (Invalid Date)
Position of the center: 14° 21' N 071° 06' W (14.3°N 71.1°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2860m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 65 KT (74.75MPH 120.4km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 004nm (4.6miles) From Center At Bearing 213°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 060KT (69mph 111.1km/h) From 299°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 004nm (4.6 miles) From Center At Bearing 213°
Minimum pressure: 969mb (28.61in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN W-SE-E
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 15nm (17.3 mi 27.8km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm

ob time was 1453Z

clfenwi · #32 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:26 am

DROPSONDES

Observation Number: 19
Time transmitted: 1516Z
Position: 14.4 North 71.1 West
Sea Level Pressure: 969 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 6 knots // 115
925 millibar height: 408 meters
925 millibar winds: 9 knots / /115
850 millibar height: 1148 meters
850 millibar winds: 9 knots // 070
700 millibar height: 2853 meters
700 millibar winds: 7 knots // 070
EYE 14 37N 071 10W

Observation Number: 20
Time transmitted: 1516Z
Position: 14.5 North // 71.0 West
Sea Level Pressure: 986 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: n/a
925 millibar height: 559 meters
925 millibar winds: n/a
850 millibar height: 1592 meters
850 millibar winds: 113 knots // 090
700 millibar height: 2939 meters
EYEWALL 14 55 N 071 09 W

Scorpion · #33 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:28 am

Continued weakening. Doesnt look like its all an ERC to me, as thats a pretty rapid pressure rise(17 mb). Something else, maybe shear.

clfenwi · #34 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:37 am

latest minob...

1626. 1512N 07215W 03044 0130 067 049 102 060 050 03223 0000000000

looks like plane has been flying around establishing wind radii....

clfenwi · #35 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:54 am

just passed through the eye ... northwest quad to southeast

max fl wind 100 knots that pass..

1642 1435N 07143W 03048 5046 074 097 076 076 100 03050 0000000100

vortex rsn...

dwg71 · #36 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:59 am

if that is the eye 14.6N and 71.7W, then its moved .2N and .8W. No NW jog as some have said.

clfenwi · #37 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:06 pm

VORTEX MESSAGE

Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #304
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 112KT (128.8mph 207.4km/h) In NE Quadrant At 14:56:20 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 100.8KT (115.9mph 186.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: EWALL REFORMING SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
Date/Time of Recon Report: Invalid Date (Invalid Date)
Position of the center: 14° 25' N 071° 39' W (14.4°N 71.7°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2841m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 100KT (115mph 185.2km/h) From 074°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 011nm (12.6 miles) From Center At Bearing 341°
Minimum pressure: 970mb (28.64in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN E-SE
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Elliptical , E09/12/18
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

ob time: 1645Z

clfenwi · #38 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:10 pm

DROPSONE

Observation Number: 24
Time transmitted: 1703Z
Position: 14.6 North // 71.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 984 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 76 knots // 355
925 millibar height: 539 meters
925 millibar winds: 109 knots // 035
850 millibar height: 1272 meters
850 millibar winds: 113 knots // 055
700 millibar height: 2923 meters
700 millibar winds: 95 knots // 080
EYEWALL 14 50 N 071 81 W

clfenwi · #39 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:13 pm

DROPSONDE

Observation Number: 26
Time transmitted: 1704Z
Position: 14.2 North 71.8 West
Sea Level Pressure: 995 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 38 knots // 260
925 millibar height: 636 meters
925 millibar winds: 55 knots // 300
850 millibar height: 1367 meters
850 millibar winds: 50 knots // 295
700 millibar height: 3012 meters
700 millibar winds: 56 knots // 300

EYEWALL1418N 07173W

000

UZNT13 KNHC 151704
XXAA 65177 99142 70718 04441 99995 25408 26038 00548 ///// /////
92636 21002 30055 85367 17803 29550 70012 09000 30056 88999 77999
31313 09608 81650
61616 AF304 0505A EMILY OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1418N07173W 1654 MBL WND 28048 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 29050 995735 WL150 27050 075 =
XXBB 65178 99142 70718 04441 00995 25408 11955 22002 22850 17803
33708 10600 44697 08400
21212 00995 26038 11980 28059 22967 28047 33955 28545 44940 29546
55931 29557 66919 30053 77892 29549 88850 29550 99697 30056
31313 09608 81650
61616 AF304 0505A EMILY OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1418N07173W 1654 MBL WND 28048 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 29050 995735 WL150 27050 075 =

Scorpion · #40 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:15 pm

If this gets over 980 then I think this will not return to a Cat 4.

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