Is it me or does it seem that Emily is taking a

[wxcrazytwo]

North, Northwest jog.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

click on 15 frames at fast speed. Looks awfully close to cuba...

[Lowpressure]

Looks more like EWRC and a little reorganization. Hard to believe any real north component any time soon.

[dhweather]

I don't see it - it's still WNW.

[dwg71]

look at visible floater, its a better guideance. convection is depress to the SW, its moving and has been moving at 285...

[wxcrazytwo]

I see in the last couple of frames a jog TO THE NORTH. Maybe it is an EWRC.

[BUD]

I was looking at the samething I wounder how long it will last??

[clfenwi]

I was looking at the samething I wounder how long it will last??

Probably as long as every other northwest jog that we have seen with her...a couple of hours tops...followed by an extended westerly run...

and that's assuming it is not an optical illusion as argued by others below...

[mvtrucking]

I see in the last couple of frames a jog TO THE NORTH. Maybe it is an EWRC.

Definitely looks that way......

[wxcrazytwo]

Yeah, but when you look at the last few frames, it definitely looks like a change in direction. It could be doing the NWN shuffle, but it appears that it just might clip the Yucatan...

[dwg71]

Take a look at visable floater loop, put up the lat and long lines, as well as NHC forcast points and you can easily see that its moving right on the line, if anything its just south of the NHC forcast track.

The IR and WV loops are not good sources of wobble detecting. Convection gives illusion of movement. Lets see what the 1PM fix is and compare it to the 14.4 and 70.9 10AM points. It will continue with something like a .2 or .3 increase N and a .8 or .9W.

Its moving s of WNW at 285, and has been for a long time...

[dhweather]

Try this - put a ruler or a straight piece of paper on the center of the storm on your monitor. Place one end at the center of the storm at the
beginning of the loop, and another over the center at the end of the loop.

You'll see the center is moving around 285.

There's an illusion, sue to SW shear, that it's moving NW. It is not.
The shear makes Emily look quite lopsided, and gives the appearance of
a NW movemenet. She's moving at a true 285.

[dwg71]

thanks dh, we will convince them....

[dwg71]

in recon thread, someone posted that they flew through the center at 14.6N and 71.7W, that would be .2N and .8W, that is south of WNW.

[Steve H.]

She is going almost due west right now. Why in God's name would you look at an IR loop to see the storms movement

[wxcrazytwo]

I don't need convincing. It was just a thought..

[Brent]

.2 N .8 W. Not NW or NNW at all.

[dwg71]

Actual recon vortex 14.4N and 71.7W, thats 0N and .8W or Due West....

[wxcrazytwo]

She is going almost due west right now. Why in God's name would you look at an IR loop to see the storms movement

I wasn't. It just caught my eye. However, when I looked at an IR loop on Dennis, I was right on the money, when others had it going more to the left..

[WeatherEmperor]

here we go. let the jogging debate begin.

<RICKY>

[dwg71]

No debate, its just a smidge north of due west, NHC has it heading "west", The longer it stays south and continues at a quick pace the better for the us mainland. If it were to hit yucatan below 19N, it would take an extreme intensity hit.

Time will tell...