MM5FSU

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hicksta
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MM5FSU

#1 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:32 pm

mm this prediction kinda wories me... i dont know how they ussualy do on storms so please dont bash me.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation
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#2 Postby gkrangers » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:39 pm

If that verifies I'll never post again.
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#3 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:40 pm

This is being discussed on the global model thread, interestingly, galvestonduck just posted a quote from Derek Ortt which showed this may not be a very reliable model because it runs at a low resolution, it apparently showed Dennis hitting Tampa at one point.

Still, everybody on the Texas coast better be watching this storm.
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#4 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:41 pm

Ahh, alright thanks for the information. i just clicked on it and was amazed at how diffrent it is from the others
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#5 Postby dhweather » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:48 pm

jkt21787 wrote:This is being discussed on the global model thread, interestingly, galvestonduck just posted a quote from Derek Ortt which showed this may not be a very reliable model because it runs at a low resolution, it apparently showed Dennis hitting Tampa at one point.

Still, everybody on the Texas coast better be watching this storm.


That is the most important part, period.
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#6 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:49 pm

maybe even LA =/. Although if they would get a lets say catagory 4/5 itd be devastating for how low they are :cry:
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#7 Postby southerngale » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:50 pm

We're all watching it, but I watch them when they're on the other side of Florida as well. This is a far right outlier. I highly doubt it will come anywhere near Southeast Texas. JMO.
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#8 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:54 pm

southerngale wrote:We're all watching it, but I watch them when they're on the other side of Florida as well. This is a far right outlier. I highly doubt it will come anywhere near Southeast Texas. JMO.


It was just last night when some models were poiniting it near freeport..
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#9 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:58 pm

hicksta wrote:
southerngale wrote:We're all watching it, but I watch them when they're on the other side of Florida as well. This is a far right outlier. I highly doubt it will come anywhere near Southeast Texas. JMO.


It was just last night when some models were poiniting it near freeport..


I think it was just one - the UKMET.
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#10 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:59 pm

It was the gfs.
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#11 Postby southerngale » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:00 pm

Yeah, and I believe they shifted back south. Unless we see a trend shifting north, I have no reason to doubt the current projected path. Anyway, that's JMO and I'm not a forecaster...just a mere weather nut.
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#12 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:01 pm

I agree with you 8-)
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#13 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:02 pm

hicksta wrote:It was the gfs.


Okay, wasn't sure. I just have a few of the older model graphs that I showed to coworkers and the UKMET was the northernmost track on those. Those things change a lot anyway.
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Re: MM5FSU

#14 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:05 pm

hicksta wrote:mm this prediction kinda wories me... i dont know how they ussualy do on storms so please dont bash me.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation



:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#15 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:05 pm

GalvestonDuck wrote:
hicksta wrote:It was the gfs.


Okay, wasn't sure. I just have a few of the older model graphs that I showed to coworkers and the UKMET was the northernmost track on those. Those things change a lot anyway.


very true, i also would expect them to change agian before nightfall
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Re: MM5FSU

#16 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:06 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
hicksta wrote:mm this prediction kinda wories me... i dont know how they ussualy do on storms so please dont bash me.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation



:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Don't be too concerned. I'm looking at the sat loops and Emily refuses to move north. So I highly doubt that track will verify at all.
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#17 Postby gboudx » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:08 pm

From that model run, looks like us up in the Dallas area would get some rain from it. And by "some" I mean a lot. I feel for whoever gets this hurricane, but I do hope that some of it's moisture and energy makes it up here to give us some good rain. We've had some the past few days, but still in a drought.
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Re: MM5FSU

#18 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:13 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
hicksta wrote:mm this prediction kinda wories me... i dont know how they ussualy do on storms so please dont bash me.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation



:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Don't be too concerned. I'm looking at the sat loops and Emily refuses to move north. So I highly doubt that track will verify at all.


i agree but, right now she prolly wont...the ridge is def. in there on the WV...but, look at the shortwave headed towards the coast of TX...thats what FWD was talking about...that might bring enough weakness in the ridge to make it go nw or something...time will tell....i don't think many models are picking up on this very well...although the MM5 might...
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#19 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:14 pm

Ahh, the inticaption :D
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#20 Postby joseph01 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:19 pm

SpellCheck is your friend.
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