Could Emily Defy The Models?

#1 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:27 pm

We all know that the outer bands motion sometimes depict a possible future movement of a storm. Look at visible.....look at Emily's outer bands extending further and further to the NW and North. Could she be making her own plans in the future? Is it even possible?

hicksta · #2 Postby **hicksta** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:28 pm

yes, very possible

johngaltfla · #3 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:29 pm

My question is about the models (as usual). Do those models anticipate or allow for weakening like we are watching today? If not, then once again, are they trash for the day until another 12-18 hours of data can be input???

Derecho · #4 Postby **Derecho** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:32 pm

Emily is already defying the models; it's been consistently south of the models and the NHC track and is even more so now.

It being weaker here for a while won't affect the models much. If anything it would actually cause it to end up even further south of the forecast track.

#5 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:33 pm

I know one thing she sure doesn't look like she is moving at 20mph right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

djtil · #6 Postby **djtil** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:34 pm

jax · #7 Postby **jax** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:36 pm

djtil wrote:no

yes!

Derecho · #8 Postby **Derecho** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:36 pm

skysummit wrote:We all know that the outer bands motion sometimes depict a possible future movement of a storm. Look at visible.....look at Emily's outer bands extending further and further to the NW and North.

That's actually an indication of southerly shear.

Notice the low clouds moving from east to west? Then when you see convection the tops get sheared off to the north.

djtil · #9 Postby **djtil** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:38 pm

djtil wrote:
no

yes!

ok....youve convinced me.
:lol:

#10 Postby **joseph01** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:41 pm

The possibility is a given, but if you mean farther east than Texas, Derecho makes a good point above, for it being unlikely.

hicksta · #11 Postby **hicksta** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:43 pm

joseph01 wrote:The possibility is a given, but if you mean farther east than Texas, Derecho makes a good point above, for it being unlikely.

nothings impossible with god :wink:

#12 Postby **joseph01** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:48 pm

hicksta wrote:
joseph01 wrote:The possibility is a given, but if you mean farther east than Texas, Derecho makes a good point above, for it being unlikely.

nothings impossible with god

So true. He could cause a 100 mile wide asteroid to strike South America, and the resulting multi-megaton explosion could send it straight up to Florida. So, never say never. :wink:

robjay · #13 Postby **robjay** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:48 pm

Here's a model (posted earlier) showing a TX/LA border hit (and paired up with a Pacific storm to boot):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

#14 Postby **micktooth** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm

Looks like the clouds are blowing off due to the SW shear from the ULL ahead of the storm. It is apparent on the wv loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Could Emily Defy The Models?

Could Emily Defy The Models?

Re: Could Emily Defy The Models?

Who is online