Hurricane Emily Advisories

[cycloneye]

TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATE
THAT EMILY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND RECORDED AS THE PLANE LEFT THE CYCLONE WAS 101 KNOTS WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD TO 90 KNOTS AND THIS IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE. IT IS NOT
UNCOMMON FOR HURRICANES TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERACT WITH THE MID OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A PERSISTENT LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER
EMILY. NEVERTHERELESS...THE HURRICANE IS PUTTING UP A GOOD FIGHT
AGAINST THE SHEAR. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER-LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
OF SUCH WEAKENING YET...AND IN FACT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES
TOWARD THE HURRICANE ARE STRONGER NOW THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE MODELS
INSIST ON FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IN
ADDITION...EMILY IS HEADING FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THE
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH AND HISTORICALLY CYCLONES INTENSIFY.
THE BEST OPTION DESPITE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF EMILY IS TO
KEEP THE SAME INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND FORECAST A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION THERAFTER.

EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS AND
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST YET.
BECAUSE EMILY IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER-MEAN HIGH TO THE
NORTH...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS TURN AND SO FAR IT HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT
IT IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 14.7N 72.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 16.6N 78.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 18.3N 82.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 22.5N 91.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 25.0N 96.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 27.0N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND

[Anonymous]

Somethings odd. I respect the NHC, but I am almost wondering if they are trying to downplay Emily, and trying to keep their track as far south as they can.

[Swimdude]

Somethings odd. I respect the NHC, but I am almost wondering if they are trying to downplay Emily, and trying to keep their track as far south as they can.

Why would they?

[mf_dolphin]

I don't know what evidence you have that they're doing anything but calling it as they see it. They call it model guidance instead of model fact for a reason. They've been pretty good at explaining why they're leaning to the south side of the guidance track IMO

[hicksta]

Im starting to think that to floyd..

[cycloneye]

NHC forecast tracks haved been right on target in the past few years remember Isabel which it was almost perfect,Dennis which made landfall only a few miles to the east of the NHC track and many other cases.

[cycloneye]

[deltadog03]

this should be REALLY evident that NHC dosn't know what is going to happen near and after the yucatan....WE don't either...but, someone said "what happend to the left turn near landfall"...im sitting here laughing cuz, as of now, they don't think that will happen...I don't either...I think that Short wave and the will the ridge be strong or weakness there...is really playing havoc on them right now

[wx247]

This discussion was so much better than the 11 am one. Avila clearly laid his thinking in relation to Emily.

By the way, nothing is afoot with the NHC.

[mf_dolphin]

They openly admit to their error margins past 72 hours. I think they do an outstanding job based on the current state of the art. As always, anyone in the cone should be watching and making sure they are prepared just in case....

[deltadog03]

yeah your right...i am just wondering...maybe you know, if emily is slowing down, is that ridge gonna get stronger or is it suppose to weaken with time? also, could that be the SW giving them fits?? like will it or not effect the ridge?

[Brent]

This discussion was so much better than the 11 am one. Avila clearly laid his thinking in relation to Emily.

By the way, nothing is afoot with the NHC.

I agree... and he does re-strengthen it in the Gulf now.

[dwg71]

this should be REALLY evident that NHC dosn't know what is going to happen near and after the yucatan....WE don't either...but, someone said "what happend to the left turn near landfall"...im sitting here laughing cuz, as of now, they don't think that will happen...I don't either...I think that Short wave and the will the ridge be strong or weakness there...is really playing havoc on them right now

How can you say that, they dont seem to be having any problem, and they aren't mentioning short waves and weaking of the ridge, they arent struggling with it.

They have only adjusted their track ever so slightly. its been near tx mexico border the whole time...

[deltadog03]

this should be REALLY evident that NHC dosn't know what is going to happen near and after the yucatan....WE don't either...but, someone said "what happend to the left turn near landfall"...im sitting here laughing cuz, as of now, they don't think that will happen...I don't either...I think that Short wave and the will the ridge be strong or weakness there...is really playing havoc on them right now

How can you say that, they dont seem to be having any problem, and they aren't mentioning short waves and weaking of the ridge, they arent struggling with it.

They have only adjusted their track ever so slightly. its been near tx mexico border the whole time...

I am saying...look how many times they change the nearing lanfall point...due WEST...now NW or WNW...im just saying...i think we have our hands full when we get closer to the yucatan...thats all and that shortwave is giving the ridge fits...WV has my back..lol

[stormie_skies]

I agree... and he does re-strengthen it in the Gulf now.

Well, thats a start!

They have only adjusted their track ever so slightly. its been near tx mexico border the whole time...

Actually, they had it approaching the middle coast of Mexico for quite a while before they adjusted their track northward...remember?

[dwg71]

this should be REALLY evident that NHC dosn't know what is going to happen near and after the yucatan....WE don't either...but, someone said "what happend to the left turn near landfall"...im sitting here laughing cuz, as of now, they don't think that will happen...I don't either...I think that Short wave and the will the ridge be strong or weakness there...is really playing havoc on them right now

How can you say that, they dont seem to be having any problem, and they aren't mentioning short waves and weaking of the ridge, they arent struggling with it.

They have only adjusted their track ever so slightly. its been near tx mexico border the whole time...

I am saying...look how many times they change the nearing lanfall point...due WEST...now NW or WNW...im just saying...i think we have our hands full when we get closer to the yucatan...thats all and that shortwave is giving the ridge fits...WV has my back..lol

They have shifted much the track they have predicted, nearly the whole time has been south of jamaica near or over yuc pen and into the border. not too many ways you can get there.

[deltadog03]

I agree... and he does re-strengthen it in the Gulf now.

Well, thats a start!

They have only adjusted their track ever so slightly. its been near tx mexico border the whole time...

Actually, they had it approaching the middle coast of Mexico for quite a while before they adjusted their track northward...remember?

thank you...there are SOOO many variables right now....just think if she slows down

[senorpepr]

Well... here are my two cents. From some of the studies I have read, typically storms have a hard time strengthening or in most cases, they weaken as the approach the mouth of a major river delta. That's been noted especially for the Mississippi River Delta as well as the Rio Grande Delta. I'm wondering if they aren't taking that (to some degree) into account here with Emily approaching the Rio Grande.

[Derek Ortt]

thats the same thing that a former met here theorized just before he left for St Louis. He said that the river run off produced cold water just below the surface. This may explain some of the recent weakenings of the cat 4's (Allen, Bret, Opal, Ivan, Dennis) just before landfall)

Now, for the uper Texas Coast, there is no river and storms traditionally intensify on their way to the coast

[deltadog03]

thats the same thing that a former met here theorized just before he left for St Louis. He said that the river run off produced cold water just below the surface. This may explain some of the recent weakenings of the cat 4's (Allen, Bret, Opal, Ivan, Dennis) just before landfall)

Now, for the uper Texas Coast, there is no river and storms traditionally intensify on their way to the coast

Derek, just tell me, what do you think the Short Wave's over TX now...pushing towards houston, will do? anything?