5:30 PM TWO for 99=Marginal Conditions for Development

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cycloneye
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5:30 PM TWO for 99=Marginal Conditions for Development

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:34 pm

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILY... LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE... LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION... AND THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

A wait and see game for 99L.
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#2 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:48 pm

Cool. Hopefully the convection will persist and organize so a center can form.
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#3 Postby Duffy » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:49 pm

the longer it stays weak, the better the chances it will go under the Trough :))) maybe Franklin will come to the US of A afterall :)
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#4 Postby kmanWX » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:54 pm

Duffy wrote:the longer it stays weak, the better the chances it will go under the Trough :))) maybe Franklin will come to the US of A afterall :)
Is there a invest out for frankin already?
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#5 Postby fci » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:55 pm

Y'all probably need to stop referring to invest 99 as "Franklin".
It has been around for several days now with little signs of development.
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#6 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:09 pm

ah what the heck. just let it develop and continue this already crazy hurricane season. Must admit I wanna see the 6th name storm form in July.

<RICKY>
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#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:10 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:ah what the heck. just let it develop and continue this already crazy hurricane season. Must admit I wanna see the 6th name storm form in July.

<RICKY>



I agree I went to see the record set...


It looks pretty darn good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
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#8 Postby Duffy » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:16 pm

yeah but if it devolops too fast, it may not make it across :(
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#9 Postby jabber » Fri Jul 15, 2005 7:32 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:ah what the heck. just let it develop and continue this already crazy hurricane season. Must admit I wanna see the 6th name storm form in July.

<RICKY>



I agree I went to see the record set...


It looks pretty darn good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg



It does look pretty good. And is a fighter. I have found that these waves that fight to stay around given the chance can really get going..... I guess we will see.
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#10 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:18 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:


I agree I went to see the record set...


It looks pretty darn good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg


Have to be careful, Matt. That flare-up of storms looks to be 150-180 miles east of where any lower pressure is. You can see the low cloud swirl here in the white circle.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin5.gif">
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#11 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:31 pm

Oh dont get me wrong. I would like for it to develop but not for it to threaten land. I dont want people to think Im a monster.

<RICKY>
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#12 Postby hicksta » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:33 pm

If im correct the models show this storm to become a fish.
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#13 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:06 pm

If it could just get out from underneath that big upper level low spinning around up there, I think it will do something...and *not* head up and out, at least not right away.
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#14 Postby Patrick99 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:02 am

"99L" persisting nicely and still not up and out.
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#15 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:03 am

The Gfdl makes it a cat2 by 48 hours now. In a fastly developing tropical storm with in the next 12 hours.
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#16 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:16 am

sorry but the GFDL makes every spark of convection a cat 2 in 48hours...

you never know though... we'll see
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#17 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:17 am

DIE 99L, DIE!@#!@#!@ GO AWAY!@#!#@!

I AM SICK OF YOU!@!#@!@
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