H Emily Recon Reports

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cycloneye
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H Emily Recon Reports

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:17 pm

New thread for tonights mission that is set to begin around 5 PM EDT.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:02 am, edited 9 times in total.
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:15 pm

AF Flight 308 just took off from St. Croix for Mission XI on Emily...
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#3 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:42 pm

Recon is now in the thicker cirrus associated with Emily's eastern side, south of Puerto Rico.

(Sorry, no Google Earth imagery monitoring the flight tonight.)
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 5:02 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 06
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 01
Time: 2140Z
Latitude: 17.2°N
Longitude: 66.6°W
Location: 94 mi SSW of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 24000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (110°) @ 22 mph
Temperature: 0°F
Dewpoint: -6°F
Weather: Overcast Skies
400mb height: 24900 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#5 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 5:13 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 06
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 02
Time: 2205Z
Latitude: 16.9°N
Longitude: 68.9°W
Location: 117 mi SSE of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 24000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (110°) @ 32 mph
Temperature: 0°F
Dewpoint: -2°F
Weather: Overcast Skies
400mb height: 24900 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#6 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 5:48 pm

Am I wrong,or has Emily gained in latitude? (17.2 on one,16.9 on the other) :?: :?:
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#7 Postby gkrangers » Fri Jul 15, 2005 5:50 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Am I wrong,or has Emily gained in latitude? (17.2 on one,16.9 on the other) :?: :?:
Thats the position of the aircraft, not the center.
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#8 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Jul 15, 2005 5:51 pm

Okay.Thanks :oops:
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#9 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:30 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 06
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 14
Ob #01 Location: 213 mi NNW of Oranjestad, Aruba
Ob #01: 23:12:30Z; 15.4°N 72.9°W; PA: 10026 ft; D-Value: 83 ft; Wind: ESE (112°) @ 83 mph; Max Wind: 85 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #02: 23:13:00Z; 15.3°N 72.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 87 ft; Wind: ESE (108°) @ 84 mph; Max Wind: 85 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #03: 23:13:30Z; 15.3°N 72.9°W; PA: 9977 ft; D-Value: 86 ft; Wind: ESE (115°) @ 84 mph; Max Wind: 85 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #04: 23:14:00Z; 15.3°N 72.9°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: 82 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 86 mph; Max Wind: 90 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #05: 23:14:30Z; 15.3°N 72.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 77 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 91 mph; Max Wind: 94 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #06: 23:15:00Z; 15.3°N 73°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 68 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 94 mph; Max Wind: 96 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #07: 23:15:30Z; 15.2°N 73°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 61 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 90 mph; Max Wind: 91 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #08: 23:16:00Z; 15.2°N 73°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 52 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 96 mph; Max Wind: 101 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #09: 23:16:30Z; 15.2°N 73°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 44 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 94 mph; Max Wind: 97 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 47°F
Ob #10: 23:17:00Z; 15.2°N 73°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 33 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 100 mph; Max Wind: 106 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 49°F
Ob #11: 23:17:30Z; 15.1°N 73.1°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: 22 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 103 mph; Max Wind: 104 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #12: 23:18:00Z; 15.1°N 73.1°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 7 ft; Wind: ESE (118°) @ 111 mph; Max Wind: 113 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #13: 23:18:30Z; 15.1°N 73.1°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -16 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 113 mph; Max Wind: 115 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #14: 23:19:00Z; 15.1°N 73.1°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: -38 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 116 mph; Max Wind: 119 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #15: 23:19:30Z; 15.1°N 73.1°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -61 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 115 mph; Max Wind: 122 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #16: 23:20:00Z; 15°N 73.2°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: -90 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 111 mph; Max Wind: 114 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #17: 23:20:30Z; 15°N 73.2°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -132 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 123 mph; Max Wind: 123 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #18: 23:21:00Z; 15°N 73.2°W; PA: 10030 ft; D-Value: -194 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 120 mph; Max Wind: 124 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 51°F
Ob #19: 23:21:30Z; 15°N 73.2°W; PA: 9977 ft; D-Value: -240 ft; Wind: ESE (119°) @ 84 mph; Max Wind: 103 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #20: 23:22:00Z; 15°N 73.2°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: -266 ft; Wind: ESE (108°) @ 40 mph; Max Wind: 50 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 40°F
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#10 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:30 pm

I see a max wind of 124 in there... :eek:
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#11 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:31 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 06
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 04
Time: 2248Z
Latitude: 16.4°N
Longitude: 71.9°W
Location: 153 mi S of Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (120°) @ 52 mph
Temperature: 46°F
Dewpoint: 41°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 10400 feet
Surface Wind: E (110°) @ 52 mph
Remarks: None
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#12 Postby mf_dolphin » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:35 pm

Ob #17: 23:20:30Z; 15°N 73.2°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -132 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 123 mph; Max Wind: 123 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 51°F


Pretty decent winds on what looks to be the NE Quad,
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#13 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:35 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 06
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 15
Ob #01 Location: 245 mi NW of Oranjestad, Aruba
Ob #01: 23:22:30Z; 14.9°N 73.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -271 ft; Wind: E (97°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 24 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #02: 23:23:00Z; 14.9°N 73.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -270 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 9 mph; Max Wind: 13 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #03: 23:23:30Z; 14.9°N 73.3°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -261 ft; Wind: SW (233°) @ 29 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #04: 23:24:00Z; 14.8°N 73.3°W; PA: 9980 ft; D-Value: -238 ft; Wind: WSW (253°) @ 60 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #05: 23:24:30Z; 14.8°N 73.3°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: -213 ft; Wind: W (269°) @ 81 mph; Max Wind: 86 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #06: 23:25:00Z; 14.8°N 73.3°W; PA: 10043 ft; D-Value: -176 ft; Wind: W (275°) @ 85 mph; Max Wind: 89 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #07: 23:25:30Z; 14.8°N 73.3°W; PA: 9951 ft; D-Value: -139 ft; Wind: W (279°) @ 82 mph; Max Wind: 84 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #08: 23:26:00Z; 14.8°N 73.3°W; PA: 9977 ft; D-Value: -109 ft; Wind: W (276°) @ 82 mph; Max Wind: 85 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #09: 23:26:30Z; 14.8°N 73.3°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: -88 ft; Wind: W (278°) @ 78 mph; Max Wind: 79 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #10: 23:27:00Z; 14.7°N 73.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -66 ft; Wind: WNW (284°) @ 78 mph; Max Wind: 81 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #11: 23:27:30Z; 14.7°N 73.4°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: -45 ft; Wind: WNW (285°) @ 69 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #12: 23:28:00Z; 14.7°N 73.4°W; PA: 9967 ft; D-Value: -30 ft; Wind: W (281°) @ 67 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #13: 23:28:30Z; 14.7°N 73.4°W; PA: 10030 ft; D-Value: -11 ft; Wind: WNW (292°) @ 61 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #14: 23:29:00Z; 14.7°N 73.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 6 ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 69 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #15: 23:29:30Z; 14.7°N 73.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 18 ft; Wind: WNW (291°) @ 62 mph; Max Wind: 63 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #16: 23:30:00Z; 14.6°N 73.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 30 ft; Wind: WNW (293°) @ 59 mph; Max Wind: 60 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #17: 23:30:30Z; 14.6°N 73.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 41 ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 55 mph; Max Wind: 55 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #18: 23:31:00Z; 14.6°N 73.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 47 ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 51 mph; Max Wind: 52 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #19: 23:31:30Z; 14.6°N 73.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 54 ft; Wind: WNW (300°) @ 47 mph; Max Wind: 48 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #20: 23:32:00Z; 14.6°N 73.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 58 ft; Wind: NW (307°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:41 pm


URNT12 KNHC 152339
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/23:22:50Z
B. 14 deg 53 min N
073 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 2738 m
D. 55 kt
E. 38 deg 060 nm
F. 121 deg 108 kt
G. 027 deg 008 nm
H. 958 mb
I. 10 C/ 3040 m
J. 14 C/ 3044 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0605A EMILY OB 05
MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 23:20:40 Z
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#15 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:41 pm

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 06
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 05
Time: 23:22:50Z
Latitude: 14.9°N
Longitude: 73.3°W
Location: 263 mi SSW of Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Minimum height at 700 mb 2738 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 63 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 69 mi NE (38°)
Maximum flight level wind: ESE (121°) @ 124 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 9 mi NNE (27°)
Sea level pressure: 958 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 50°F at 9974 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 57°F at 9987 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 54°F
Eye character: OPEN SW
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 12 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 23:20:40 Z
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#16 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:42 pm

11 millibar drop...108 knots winds over northeast quad.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#17 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:42 pm

Down 10 mb in 6 hours!!! I knew it... she'll easily be back to Cat 3 tonight. :eek:
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#18 Postby Swimdude » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:43 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:11 millibar drop...108 knots winds over northeast quad.


Back to CAT. 3, I suspect. It's in the forecast anyway, so I had anticipated that. Awaiting the 8 p.m. adv...
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#19 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:44 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:9 millibar drop...108 knots winds over northeast quad.


My guess is they will upgrade this back to category three on the advisory.

108kt*90%=97.2kt*1.152=111.97mph (111 is category three, so I see them carrying 100kt/115mph)
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#20 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 15, 2005 6:44 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 06
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 16
Ob #01 Location: 212 mi NW of Oranjestad, Aruba
Ob #01: 23:32:30Z; 14.5°N 73.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 63 ft; Wind: NW (314°) @ 44 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #02: 23:33:00Z; 14.5°N 73.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 67 ft; Wind: NW (314°) @ 41 mph; Max Wind: 41 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #03: 23:33:30Z; 14.5°N 73.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 72 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 44 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #04: 23:34:00Z; 14.5°N 73.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 75 ft; Wind: NW (319°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #05: 23:34:30Z; 14.5°N 73.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 80 ft; Wind: NW (317°) @ 44 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #06: 23:35:00Z; 14.4°N 73.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 84 ft; Wind: NW (317°) @ 44 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #07: 23:35:30Z; 14.4°N 73.7°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 86 ft; Wind: NW (323°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 43 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #08: 23:36:00Z; 14.4°N 73.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 90 ft; Wind: NW (323°) @ 41 mph; Max Wind: 43 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #09: 23:36:30Z; 14.4°N 73.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 92 ft; Wind: NW (325°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #10: 23:37:00Z; 14.4°N 73.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 95 ft; Wind: NNW (327°) @ 36 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #11: 23:37:30Z; 14.3°N 73.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 98 ft; Wind: NW (322°) @ 36 mph; Max Wind: 37 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #12: 23:38:00Z; 14.3°N 73.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 100 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #13: 23:38:30Z; 14.3°N 73.8°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 100 ft; Wind: NW (317°) @ 30 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #14: 23:39:00Z; 14.3°N 73.9°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 101 ft; Wind: NW (323°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #15: 23:39:30Z; 14.3°N 73.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 102 ft; Wind: NW (318°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 29 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #16: 23:40:00Z; 14.2°N 73.9°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 105 ft; Wind: NW (317°) @ 25 mph; Max Wind: 25 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #17: 23:40:30Z; 14.2°N 73.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 105 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 24 mph; Max Wind: 24 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #18: 23:41:00Z; 14.2°N 73.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 106 ft; Wind: NW (314°) @ 24 mph; Max Wind: 25 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #19: 23:41:30Z; 14.2°N 74°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: NW (320°) @ 26 mph; Max Wind: 29 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #20: 23:42:00Z; 14.1°N 74°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 109 ft; Wind: NNW (327°) @ 29 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 37°F
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