Hurricane Emily Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

nothing significant.

dont see this getting up to houston as at the end, all model guidance shows the ridge building

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...EMILY REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER... AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 305
MILES... 490 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING NOT
FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 115
MPH... 185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES... 220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N... 73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[AussieMark]

thats the same thing that a former met here theorized just before he left for St Louis. He said that the river run off produced cold water just below the surface. This may explain some of the recent weakenings of the cat 4's (Allen, Bret, Opal, Ivan, Dennis) just before landfall)

Now, for the uper Texas Coast, there is no river and storms traditionally intensify on their way to the coast

if u look at stats on the NHC site. 6 category 4's have struck Texas in the 1900 - 2004 period.

4 of em struck the Upper Texas coast.

Also Beulah in 1967 went from like a 5 to a 3 in the hours before landfall right?

[DPTX]

Between TX and LA you have the Sabine river. It is joined by the Neches river as they form Sabine Lake before emptying into the gulf. About 90 miles down the coast the San Jacinto and Trinity rivers empty into Galveston Bay before entering the gulf. I wonder if the bay and lake formation make a difference in allowing strengthening? Just wondering and reading posts.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah,

Buelah collapsed (allegedly, I'll wait for the reanalysis though before I can say for sure)

[Sanibel]

Yesterday the convection tops here in SW Florida were sheared east to west. Today they noticeably shifted NE to SW. The High is plunging. OR a ULL is turning over us...

[johngaltfla]

Yesterday the convection tops here in SW Florida were sheared east to west. Today they noticeably shifted NE to SW. The High is plunging. OR a ULL is turning over us...

ULL is crossing south of us....FYI...

[windsurfer77058]

So all of you from the Houston/Galveston area, what are your plans? Are you feeling better or worse?

[dwg71]

So all of you from the Houston/Galveston area, what are your plans? Are you feeling better or worse?

I try not to get too worked up, up till about 72 hours out. I feel pretty good now, if models stay where they are 48 hours from now, I dont think we will get anything.

[deltadog03]

heck who knows...i just want the rain out of it...as said before we are almost 8" in the hole...

[hicksta]

Correct me if im wrong on tv i just saw the speed at 16mph..

[Brent]

Correct me if im wrong on tv i just saw the speed at 16mph..

18 mph as of 8pm.

[hicksta]

Just saw on Tv. Cat 4 and 16mph.. Mods feel free to remove this post if you need to

[Brent]

Just saw on Tv. Cat 4 and 16mph.. Mods feel free to remove this post if you need to

NHC advisory not out yet...

[canegrl04]

Lets see what the official 11pm advisory saysMaybe its 16mph.If it is,it could be significant

[hicksta]

I just saw it from the League City Weather Station.

[mf_dolphin]

According to the Recon CAT4 (using 90% of flight lvl)

[Brent]

I just saw it from the League City Weather Station.

I don't know where they are getting it from... still nothing from NHC.

[micktooth]

I hope the discussion is better than last night. It put me to sleep.

[gkrangers]

696
WTNT35 KNHC 160252
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY AGAIN STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 4...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 545
MILES... 880 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
PASSING NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.1 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB