Hurricane Emily Advisories

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z SAT JUL 16 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 74.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 74.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 73.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N 76.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N 79.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N 83.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.1N 86.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 74.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[hicksta]

How Many points N and how many W compared to 8

[cycloneye]

It returned to what it was early this morning 135 mph interesting the comeback it has made.

[Brent]

How Many points N and how many W compared to 8

.2 N .8 W

[cycloneye]

[hicksta]

Woot. Out of the cone

[gkrangers]

Woot. Out of the cone

[senorpepr]

Hmmm... that graphic isn't right. That has category three whereas NHC is forecasting category four until landfall on the Yucatan.

[swimaster20]

Hmmm... that graphic isn't right. That has category three whereas NHC is forecasting category four until landfall on the Yucatan.

I was wondering about that, too senorpepr.

[Brent]

Hmmm... that graphic isn't right. That has category three whereas NHC is forecasting category four until landfall on the Yucatan.

Weather Underground always shows that for a 115-kt forecast even though it is technically a Cat 4(132 mph).

Not working here BTW... stupid computer. Can't even get the site to load.

[cycloneye]

160310
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

EMILY HAS ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED AGAIN...WHICH WE KNOW THANKS TO
FREQUENT FIXES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION TONIGHT. SINCE ABOUT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 15 MB TO 954 MB. VERY RECENT MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AS HIGH AS 128 KT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...UP FROM 108 KT IN THAT SAME QUADRANT JUST A
COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. THE FLIGHT LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE DOUBLE
WIND MAXIMA AT ABOUT 8 AND 50 NMI...SUGGESTING CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS...SO A REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO FORECAST SUCH
STRUCTURAL CHANGES...SO I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 115
KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE EMILY IS OVER THE INCREASINGLY
WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INTENSITY COULD OF
COURSE FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS COMMON
IN MAJOR HURRICANES. EMILY MIGHT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IF IT SPENDS
ENOUGH TIME OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION...SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME WOBBLES DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...IS ESTIMATED AT 285/16. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TAKES EMILY ON MUCH THIS SAME HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL AND SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT...AND A LITTLE
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHEN EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS THIS TIME SHIFTED SOUTH. AS WE USUALLY DO
WHEN THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH...I WILL ONLY MAKE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT...A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 15.1N 74.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 15.8N 76.6W 115 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 79.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 18.6N 83.2W 115 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 20.1N 86.4W 115 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 92.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W 50 KT...INLAND

[senorpepr]

Hmmm... that graphic isn't right. That has category three whereas NHC is forecasting category four until landfall on the Yucatan.

Weather Underground always shows that for a 115-kt forecast even though it is technically a Cat 4(132 mph).

Not working here BTW... stupid computer. Can't even get the site to load.

Hmmm... interesting. Another reason why I'm not found on unoffical products. Although I have a good amount of respect for Wx Underground, I feel they are misleading with that graphic.

[deltadog03]

WITH A GRADUAL AND SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT

something to do with the ridge??

[cycloneye]

Interesting the no mention of shear and upper low.

[senorpepr]

I'm glad he mentioned the wind maxima. I was starting to notice that as well as I was plotting and following recon.

[Brent]

Hmmm... that graphic isn't right. That has category three whereas NHC is forecasting category four until landfall on the Yucatan.

Weather Underground always shows that for a 115-kt forecast even though it is technically a Cat 4(132 mph).

Not working here BTW... stupid computer. Can't even get the site to load.

Hmmm... interesting. Another reason why I'm not found on unoffical products. Although I have a good amount of respect for Wx Underground, I feel they are misleading with that graphic.

Image works now after closing out the browser for a few minutes... LOL

I'm not fond of it either, but they always have the track before the NHC does.

[Seele]

Here's a bouy to monitor that's very close to Emily:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

I can't believe it! I go to work at 5 pm with a Cat. 2 and come at 11 pm to find a Cat. 4. Amazing!

[Andrew92]

I can't believe it! I go to work at 5 pm with a Cat. 2 and come at 11 pm to find a Cat. 4. Amazing!

She's bipolar. Category 4 this morning, then a 2 in the early evening, and now a 4 again.

-Andrew92