00Z NAM and GFS..

[tw861]

00Z NAM....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

is significantly further north than the 18z run.

18Z NAM...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

For what it's worth. From Tampico to Matagorda, that's a heck of a shift. The 00z GFS is not out yet.

[Derek Ortt]

why am I not surprised that GFS always flip flops

maybe if they ran it only every 12 hours...

[tw861]

Here is the link for the 00z NAM loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

You can actually follow the track better by running the loop than looking at one frame.

[hicksta]

Whats the Diffrence in 00z and 18z and which is more accurate

[Portastorm]

OK, I know its only one run of a model ... and I know the NAM is not a tropical forecast model ... so how serious do we take this? In what context should we consider it?

[hicksta]

That makes no sense, a tropical storm to houston. How????

[Hurricane Cheese]

North, south, north, south.....let the great whaling and gnashing of teeth begin!

[hicksta]

No, That makes no sense, it has it not hitting land and becoming a tropical storm in Matagorda/Houston..

[FritzPaul]

Model-wobbling

[Derek Ortt]

0Z has the full compliment of data assimilated in the initial conditions. The 18Z, while having some, is more of an extrap of the previous forecast

[Stratosphere747]

No, That makes no sense, it has it not hitting land and becoming a tropical storm in Matagorda/Houston..

Well then, that would be a good indication to not believe this model...

[hicksta]

very true, but it got me thinking. The NHC had it saying it might bend right and now this model picks up on it. But it cant be a TS so thats bogus.

[Portastorm]

very true, but it got me thinking. The NHC had it saying it might bend right and now this model picks up on it. But it cant be a TS so thats bogus.

It's hard to believe such a dramatic northward shift ... especially considering that the tropical forecast models have trended further south today NOT north.

Then again ... Emily's intensity appears to have fluctuated beyond expectation.

[Stratosphere747]

very true, but it got me thinking. The NHC had it saying it might bend right and now this model picks up on it. But it cant be a TS so thats bogus.

Now we are getting somewhere....

There is much to learn about these models, and in the end they are just models to use for refrence.

[mobilebay]

Keep in mind this is just the NAM. The GFS is about where the 18Z run was through 72 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[clfenwi]

I haven't followed the NAM's tracks at all, but from what I recall from previous model diagnostic discussions from HPC, they have been favoring the GFS solutions over the NAM's... here's their comments on the NAM and Emily tonight...

...HRCN EMILY...
THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE SYS AT THE SFC AND H5...W/A
MERE INVERTED TROF OR TROPICAL WAVE MOVG WNWD INTO THE SRN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVG INTO THE ERN MEXICAN COAST/SRN TX. THERE IS A H5 VORT
THAT MOVES TO PALACIOS BY 84 HRS WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE SOMETHING
TO DO W/EMILY.

[hicksta]

But, when you have a model shift that quickly it has to be picking something up. It has to raise eyebrowls

[mobilebay]

But, when you have a model shift that quickly it has to be picking something up. It has to raise eyebrowls

no offense but the NAM means absolutely nothing. When the the GFS, NOGAPS,UKMET start shifting then they will take notice.

[hicksta]

None taken at all i didnt know that.

[stormcloud]

The NAM also has Emily as just an open wave hitting the Texas coast. There is a BIG difference in handling an open wave vs. a hurricane.