16 Jul 00Z Global models NOGAPS,GFS,UKMET,CANADIAN

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS...after 36 h faster than 00Z run...slightly further south...landfall in upper Yucatan at 48 h... second landfall IVO Tampico, MX between 96-108 hours...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071600

GFS...from the start, significantly further south...mid (Mexican) Yucatan landfall between 54-60 h...north Mexico landfall at 108 h...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_m.shtml

UKMET...starts slower...further south after 24 hours...upper Yucatan landfall at 48 hours...northern Mexico landfall at 96 hours...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

CANADIAN...once again, loses the closed low...inverted trough crosses Yucatan at 48 h...Mexico landfall at 84 hours...
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

[Derek Ortt]

guidance is trending away from a US landfall this evening.

G-IV flight I believe is tomorrow, whcih should help things out immensely

[Swimdude]

Certainly looks like we're going back to a Mexico storm.

[Derek Ortt]

depending upon how close to Texas and its size, there could still be serious affects there.

[jkt21787]

Certainly looks like we're going back to a Mexico storm.

Don't tell that to hicksta

Seriously though, Mexico is the target it would seem, but I would like to see the models run with the G-IV data before being sure on that.

[Galvestongirl]

Glad I took the wait and see attitude and didnt go into a panic thinking it was at my back door..and I will continue to wait, moniter and see.

[jkt21787]

depending upon how close to Texas and its size, there could still be serious affects there.

Yes, I agree with that definitely. It could still be pretty serious for those in Southern Texas, particularly near Brownsville, even if its a Mexico landfall.

[clfenwi]

guidance is trending away from a US landfall this evening.

G-IV flight I believe is tomorrow, whcih should help things out immensely

Yep, G-IV flight tomorrow, along with a WC-130 also doing an upper-air mission...during Dennis the WC-130 worked GOM while the G-IV worked the Carib, IIRC...

[jasons2k]

Honestly, I don't think I will feel at ease until we get some consistency first. This flip-flopping is about to drive me nuts.

[Galvestongirl]

Honestly, I don't think I will feel at ease until we get some consistency first. This flip-flopping is about to drive me nuts

I agree...I go to work at herman..we are in the cone, I come home, we are out of the cone.....what is tomorrow going to bring????

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not the biggest fan of the AF doing synoptic surveillance as they do not sample the upper environment, where the shear is located. However, what they sample is sufficient for determining whether or not the storm will hit TX or Mex

[Swimdude]

Honestly, I don't think I will feel at ease until we get some consistency first. This flip-flopping is about to drive me nuts.

Me either, but technically, it's only flip-flopped once... A week ago, we were looking towards the East coast... Even a fish... Then immediately towards Mexico... A day or two in Texas, and now back to Mexico. I'm not too worried, here in Houston. We might get some bands from Emily if she decides to expand as she makes landfall, but otherwise, we'll be fine, I believe.

[jasons2k]

Honestly, I don't think I will feel at ease until we get some consistency first. This flip-flopping is about to drive me nuts.

Me either, but technically, it's only flip-flopped once... A week ago, we were looking towards the East coast... Even a fish... Then immediately towards Mexico... A day or two in Texas, and now back to Mexico. I'm not too worried, here in Houston. We might get some bands from Emily if she decides to expand as she makes landfall, but otherwise, we'll be fine, I believe.

I hope so. Still early.

[clfenwi]

European... Yucatan landfall seems to be slightly further south (just south of 20 N vice being just north of it on prev run)...instead of moving Emily WNW/NW over BOC, keeps her on a north of west course....landfall betwen Veracruz and Poza Rica after 96 hours....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[Nimbus]

JSchlitZ wrote:

Honestly, I don't think I will feel at ease until we get some consistency first. This flip-flopping is about to drive me nuts.

The water vapor loop this morning is a lot less busy so the NHC should have an easier time forecasting motion.
Emily's high pressure dome has bridged in nicely with the ridge to the north so the only steering features will be her natural recurve tendency and what the next trough that drops down over Texas does to the ridge.
Just a couple degrees shift right in track and Emily will just clip the tip of the Yucatan.
We would have a much stronger storm in that scenario feeding into the model initialization.

As I posted earlier the track verifying north or south of Cozumel is going to be key to the final landfal..

NHC has already hinted that a NW shift is possible later in the forecast.

This doesn't look like a Mexico second landfall to me but the NHC is wise to wait before shifting the track to avoid the media "first hype" syndrome.

We have a strong cat4 storm that would make headlines people would jump on.
Later if the track shifted further north people would claim that it was not forecast to come their direction.

Looks like it is going to be a nasty rodeo "in the storm2k board" so hold on.

[TampaFl]