Emily north of next forecast point

canegrl04 · #21 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:53 pm

She looks like shes going to cross over Jamaica on that sat loop.If she does,thats an indication of a Texas hit

InimanaChoogamaga · #22 Postby **InimanaChoogamaga** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:56 pm

hicksta wrote:Looks like the models will flip flop agian. Reminds me of John Kerry

This season reminds me of President Bush. Wild, unpredictable and completely out of control.

Nimbus · #23 Postby **Nimbus** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:58 pm

She has slowed down a lot there is a 59 minute gap between two of the frames.
Slower speed west will reduce shear.
The models are going to have to be reinitialized for sure before we get much meaningful information out of them.
The NHC track had some recurve in the forecast track as it reached the west end of Jamaica so any shift right is cutting it close on the strong side of the storm.
We have some time to watch but I was afraid this was going to happen.

Rainband · #24 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:59 pm

canegrl04 wrote:She looks like shes going to cross over Jamaica on that sat loop.If she does,thats an indication of a Texas hit

can you explain why?? There are no scientific facts to that presumption that I am aware of.

hicksta · #25 Postby **hicksta** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:01 pm

canegrl04 wrote:She looks like shes going to cross over Jamaica on that sat loop.If she does,thats an indication of a Texas hit

The higher north she goes yes the greater chance for texas, but you also have to add in the ridge which is the stearing factor. Lets just say everyone keep a nice eye on this :wink:

canegrl04 · #26 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:04 pm

Can you explain why?

See hicksta's post

Rainband · #27 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:12 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Can you explain why?

See hicksta's post

I base my statements on the facts and the forecasts that thus far have been point on :wink:

hicksta · #28 Postby **hicksta** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:14 pm

Rainband wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:Can you explain why?

See hicksta's post
I base my statements on the facts and the forecasts that thus far have been point on

If you look at the current models.

They arent affected by the high to much ( no sudden turn west just more w than wnw) so if you put her WNW she will be higher than those plots in my perjection until the models suggest the high will make her turn West. Thats my 2 cents. correct me if im wrong

Rainband · #29 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:16 pm

I am sticking to my guns :wink:

Your entitled to your view too

#30 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:42 pm

Nimbus wrote:She has slowed down a lot there is a 59 minute gap between two of the frames.
Slower speed west will reduce shear.
The models are going to have to be reinitialized for sure before we get much meaningful information out of them.
The NHC track had some recurve in the forecast track as it reached the west end of Jamaica so any shift right is cutting it close on the strong side of the storm.
We have some time to watch but I was afraid this was going to happen.

Nimbus, what do you mean? What is so concerning to you? I'm curious about your "models are going to have to be reinitialized" comment?

#31 Postby **fci** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:12 pm

Wow, deja-vu!!!

Same comments as with Dennis.

A wobble here, a wobble there... people see something in 3 frames and conclude a direction change and that the NHC is wrong.

Sure enough, a little wobble the other way and they nailed it.

Remember, a little wobble means almost nothing until the storm is close.... then it has a major impact. Until then.... chill until a consisten shift is noted

#32 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:13 pm

a bend to the right at the end?? whats up with that?

Droop12 · #33 Postby **Droop12** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:17 pm

Cant all you people from Texas get along? Ya'll are worse then the folks from the Carolina's :lol:

J/K

Nimbus · #34 Postby **Nimbus** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:49 pm

Nimbus, what do you mean? What is so concerning to you? I'm curious about your "models are going to have to be reinitialized" comment?

Emily is now a cat 4 storm again which is a pretty good indication the environmental variables have changed.
As a cat4 storm she will be building a larger high pressure dome that will effect the steering elements.
I thought I saw a slowdown in forward speed starting in the IR loop after the Satellite blackout at 19:15.
Only had three frames and two of the frames were separated by a 59 minute gap.
NHC still says 18 MPH, will have to average out the wobbles and check the trend tomorrow morning.

#35 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:52 pm

got it. makes sense. thanks for clarifying!

perk · #36 Postby **perk** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:02 pm

Droop12 it's silly comments like you just made that adds fuel to this already hateful feud between various states on this forum.This forum is about tropical weather,lets keep it that way.

Swimdude · #37 Postby **Swimdude** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:19 pm

hicksta wrote:Its wierd i post the same thing in a diffrent forum and get flamed over it. Gotta love it

Eh, it's just cause' you're a newbie that's posted 209 times in the past 48 hours. Gets a little excessive.

hicksta · #38 Postby **hicksta** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:22 pm

Im sick and got nothing better to do.

Droop12 · #39 Postby **Droop12** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:46 am

Hey Perk, Im not being hateful about anything, and Im sure there is nothing hateful going on in this thread, people disagree, have their own opinion etc. In the end we all get along, Im just trying to lighten the mood. Come on ya'll Perk up alittle! 8-)

clfenwi · #40 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:53 am

all-star effort by Emily to turn due west for a few hours to hit the forecast point...

Emily north of next forecast point

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