Hurricane Emily Advisories

[Hurricane Cheese]

Geez I know what you guys mean....I went to work today at 4, come home....and she's turned back into a monster!

[HURAKAN]

I can't believe it! I go to work at 5 pm with a Cat. 2 and come at 11 pm to find a Cat. 4. Amazing!

She's bipolar. Category 4 this morning, then a 2 in the early evening, and now a 4 again.

-Andrew92

Let see what the next EWRC brings!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The last EWRC the enviroment was not to favable. This time around the enivorment looks very favable. The thing is the outter eye wall took a long time because of the unfavable enviroment. This time I would not be suprized. If once the outter eye takes over. This thing bombs big time. The TCHP is the highest in the whole basin right here. It has made some of the most powerful storms form in the histroy of the Atlantic...Watch Emilly very closly...

[HURAKAN]

The National Meteorological Service of Mexico, or as known in Spanish, Servico Meteorológico Nacional, is already making sure that people in the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula know about this system.

La población de la Península de Yucatán debe estar muy atenta a la evolución de “Emily”, debido a la alta probabilidad de impacto sobre la porción Noreste de la región.

Persons in the Yucatan Peninsula should be alert about the evolution of "Emily" due to the high probability of impact in the NE portion of the region.

[Scorpion]

Looks almost due west to me. Emily is very stubborn to turn. At this rate it will crash into Belize.

[Swimdude]

Looks almost due west to me. Emily is very stubborn to turn. At this rate it will crash into Belize.

You've been saying this non-stop for days. Look at the overall track. That's what matters.

[Derek Ortt]

its actually moved at about 290 since 0Z

[Swimdude]

Makes me wonder how close this will pass to Jamaica.

[gkrangers]

I've been trying to fall asleep but couldn't..saw that it was so close to 2AM and decided to stop by to check out the advisory...which I know will stay the same intensity wise because recon hasn't changed....oh well...hurry up NHC!

[Ixolib]

Makes me wonder how close this will pass to Jamaica.

Makes me wonder if the centuries of hurricanes passing just barely off the SE coast of Jamicia is what has caused that little indention just on the SE corner of the island? Their shields definitely seem to be working well - both this year and last...

[Swimdude]

I've noticed a trend... All these night-time advisories come out EXACTLY when they're supposed to. The day-time ones come 10-20 minutes early. The 2 a.m. advisory seems to be consistently 5 minutes late. Not sure of the 5 a.m. I'm never awake for that one!

[gkrangers]

138
WTNT35 KNHC 160557
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005

...CATGEORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215
MILES... 350 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 495
MILES... 795 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
PASS TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT LEAST 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MEANS EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47
MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...15.3 N... 75.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[jkt21787]

Hmm...I notice Stewart puts "at least" 135 mph. Also the pressure is apparently down 2 mb since the last VDM a short while ago. We could be nearing the completion of the EWRC.

[jasons2k]

Hmm...I notice Stewart puts "at least" 135 mph. Also the pressure is apparently down 2 mb since the last VDM a short while ago. We could be nearing the completion of the EWRC.

Noticed that too; interesting. I like SS Disc.

[Swimdude]

Things to note in the 2 a.m. advisory:

1. Emily is still moving at an incredible and consistent forward pace. 18 mph. I don't believe that's dropped below 14 mph for her entire lifetime.

2. Movement is WNW.

3. "AT LEAST" 135 mph.

[Swimdude]

Also; no significant changes in the forecast track:

[jasons2k]

I wonder how long she can keep this pace (forward). And if/when she slows, which way will she go. It could be a 50/50 deal, where she's either gonna be a buzzsaw and not deviate, or slow and turn.

[jkt21787]

Also; no significant changes in the forecast track:

There are NO changes to the forecast track on intermediate advisories. They only occur with 6 hour advisories.

[jasons2k]

Also; no significant changes in the forecast track:

I don't expect it until either the models flip again or she changes her heading.

[jkt21787]

Just so we're official here...from NHC's web page:

Forecast/Advisories are issued on all Atlantic and eastern Pacific tropical and subtropical cyclones every six hours. Special Forecast/Advisories may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.