H Emily Recon Reports=Next Mission this evening

#21 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 8:59 am

Will the winds be upgrade at the next advisory?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #22 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:00 am

It supports a upgrade to 155 mph...148 knots is 170 mph flight level or 155 mph surface. In the surface Est says 153 mph.

Mac · #23 Postby **Mac** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:00 am

I wonder what she's gonna do once she hits those warmer SSTs??? :eek:

#24 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:05 am

No joke Mac! She's in the "cooler" area right now. She has to be peaking soon though. I can't imagine her getting much stronger! WOW...we're in August and we've had 2 hurricanes, one a Cat 4, and the other, possibly a Cat 5 ??? :eek:

Holy cr@p!

#25 Postby **drezee** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:06 am

Storm: Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 148KT (170.2mph 274.1km/h) In NE Quadrant At 11:49:50 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 133.2KT (153.2mph 246.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: AX FL TEMP 15 C 210 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR EXCELLENT RADAR REPRESENTATION (Report Time: 16/1401 Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 15.9N 76.8W 114 KT (131.1MPH 211.1km/h) [13:04:10Z to 13:23:40Z ]
Inbound Surface Wind Observed At 30 KT (34.5MPH 55.6km/h) @ 200°
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 16.1N 77.0W 131 KT (150.65MPH 242.6km/h) [13:33:00Z to 13:52:50Z ]
Outbound Surface Wind Observed At 35 KT (40.25MPH 64.8km/h) @ 060°
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
I01 14.9N 75.8W Unknown data 8°C 8°C 033 KT (37.95MPH 61.1 km/h) @ 190°
I02 15.1N 75.9W Unknown data 8°C 8°C 038 KT (43.7MPH 70.4 km/h) @ 190°
I03 15.3N 76.1W Unknown data 7°C 7°C 038 KT (43.7MPH 70.4 km/h) @ 180°
I04 15.4N 76.3W Unknown data 8°C 8°C 049 KT (56.35MPH 90.8 km/h) @ 200°
I05 15.6N 76.5W Unknown data 7°C 7°C 056 KT (64.4MPH 103.7 km/h) @ 210°
I06 15.8N 76.7W Unknown data 7°C 7°C 073 KT (83.95MPH 135.2 km/h) @ 220°
O01 16.2N 77.0W Unknown data 7°C 7°C 116 KT (133.4MPH 214.8 km/h) @ 50°
O02 16.3N 77.2W Unknown data 9°C 9°C 079 KT (90.85MPH 146.3 km/h) @ 60°
O03 16.5N 77.4W Unknown data 7°C 7°C 059 KT (67.85MPH 109.3 km/h) @ 70°
O04 16.7N 77.6W Unknown data 9°C 6°C 052 KT (59.8MPH 96.3 km/h) @ 70°
O05 16.9N 77.8W Unknown data 8°C 6°C 053 KT (60.95MPH 98.2 km/h) @ 70°
O06 17.0N 78.0W Unknown data 8°C 8°C 057 KT (65.55MPH 105.6 km/h) @ 80°

Scorpion · #26 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:08 am

Dennis was extremely close if not a borderline Cat 5.

Scorpion · #27 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:09 am

And I dont know why NHC kept this at 145 mph.

wxwatcher91 · #28 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:10 am

skysummit wrote:No joke Mac! She's in the "cooler" area right now. She has to be peaking soon though. I can't imagine her getting much stronger! WOW...we're in August and we've had 2 hurricanes, one a Cat 4, and the other, possibly a Cat 5 ??? Holy cr@p!

July btw

Mac · #29 Postby **Mac** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:14 am

skysummit wrote:No joke Mac! She's in the "cooler" area right now. She has to be peaking soon though. I can't imagine her getting much stronger! WOW...we're in August and we've had 2 hurricanes, one a Cat 4, and the other, possibly a Cat 5 ??? Holy cr@p!

It would seem like she'd be peaking soon. But then again, she doesn't operate by our standards--mother nature will do as she pleases. After all, it's not as though she's referencing her day planner and saying, "Oops. It's July. I'm not due to be a Cat 5 for another month yet." All she cares about is whether the meterological conditions support her strengthening. And right now, they do.

From the improved outflow to the west, it is apparent to me that shear is not currently an issue. And she has much warmer SSTs in her immediate future. The one thing that appears to be hindering her development is her lack of symmetry. But that has been a problem for her from the get-go.

I haven't quite figured out yet why Emma is having so much trouble creating a good circular convection with a well-defined eye. She's looked ragged for most of her life. Perhaps it is a combination of things--close interaction with land, entraining dry air occassionally, then shear, and rapid intensification? But if she ever manages to get her act together and form a well-defined eye, and holds that eye, she may be able to attain and hold Cat 5 status for some time. And if she should go annular, she could easily maintain it until she hit the Yucatan. Given her current structural challenges, however, annular seems unlikely.

#30 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:17 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:
skysummit wrote:No joke Mac! She's in the "cooler" area right now. She has to be peaking soon though. I can't imagine her getting much stronger! WOW...we're in August and we've had 2 hurricanes, one a Cat 4, and the other, possibly a Cat 5 ??? Holy cr@p!

July btw

Oh my GOD! You see how messed up I am! Geez.....I suck :roll:

wxwatcher91 · #31 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:26 am

skysummit wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:
skysummit wrote:No joke Mac! She's in the "cooler" area right now. She has to be peaking soon though. I can't imagine her getting much stronger! WOW...we're in August and we've had 2 hurricanes, one a Cat 4, and the other, possibly a Cat 5 ??? Holy cr@p!

July btw

Oh my GOD! You see how messed up I am! Geez.....I suck

lol it's okay... puts all the more emphasis on how amazing this July has been! :wink:

Thunder44 · #32 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:48 am

URNT12 KNHC 161537
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/15:14:00Z
B. 16 deg 12 min N
077 deg 21 min W
C. 700 mb 2576 m
D. 25 kt
E. 221 deg 067 nm
F. 281 deg 101 kt
G. 177 deg 006 nm
H. EXTRAP 941 mb
I. 10 C/ 3059 m
J. 15 C/ 3052 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C13
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0705A EMILY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 148 KT NE QUAD 11:49:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
PRELIMINARY

Scorpion · #33 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:52 am

Still strengthening.

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:00 pm

030
UZNT13 KNHC 161655
XXAA 66177 99176 70791 04479 99011 28447 04525 00101 27448 04526
92788 23050 05029 85521 17656 07535 70155 09237 07543 88999 77999
31313 09608 81643
61616 AF302 0705A EMILY OB 22
62626 SPL 1758N07911W 1648 MBL WND 04030 AEV 20507 =
XXBB 66178 99176 70791 04479 00011 28447 11940 23237 22905 22658
33850 17656 44810 14035 55707 10440 66696 08435
21212 00011 04525 11964 04034 22914 05527 33901 06533 44850 07535
55774 07558 66696 07543
31313 09608 81643
61616 AF302 0705A EMILY OB 22
62626 SPL 1758N07911W 1648 MBL WND 04030 AEV 20507 =

Dropsonde observation.

#35 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:07 pm

282
URNT11 KNHC 161645
97779 16424 70176 79100 30600 08042 08051 /3164
40325
RMK AF302 0705A EMILY OB 21

Another vortex message before 2 PM advisorie comming soon.

Coldfront · #36 Postby **Coldfront** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:08 pm

Cycloneye,

Thank you for the dropsonde info. Is there a windspeed translation for this data, pls?

clfenwi · #37 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:15 pm

Coldfront wrote:Cycloneye,

Thank you for the dropsonde info. Is there a windspeed translation for this data, pls?

It is from the fringe of the storm, but here goes anyway...

Position: 17.6 North // 79.1 West
SLP: 1011 millibars
SurfaceWinds 25 knots // 045
1000 millibar winds: 26 knots // 045
925 millibar winds: 29 knots // 050
850 millibar winds: 35 knots // 075
700 millibar winds: 45 knots // 075

Coldfront · #38 Postby **Coldfront** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:16 pm

Thank you, clfenwi!

Is there any way to extrapolate that "fringe" data compared to the eyewall windspeeds?

#39 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:17 pm

Coldfront wrote:Cycloneye,

Thank you for the dropsonde info. Is there a windspeed translation for this data, pls?

Hey sorry that I couldn'y answer that as I dont know how to decode it.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #40 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:20 pm

Will they find a stronger storm or about the same.

I guest...

152-155 knots flight level up from the 148 earlier...Mostly because winds catch up with time.

I also guest that the pressure is 2 millibars lower...Even so the western side has warmed some...The eye has becomed very defined.

H Emily Recon Reports=Next Mission this evening

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