Hurricane Emily Advisories

[drezee]

024
WTNT25 KNHC 161431
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z SAT JUL 16 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 77.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 77.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 86.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.3N 89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 94.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 26.0N 103.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 77.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

[Ixolib]

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS.

With GUSTS to what????????

[stormie_skies]

Do we really wanna know, Ixolib?

I see she is moving 290 now....wasn't she moving 285 before?

[wxwatcher91]

so wait... which one is it 145mph or 155mph???

i guess either way its gonna be windy where she strikes...

[wxwatcher91]

so wait... which one is it 145mph or 155mph???

i guess either way its gonna be windy where she strikes...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The recon data doe's not support 145 mph...

148 knots=170 rounded out.(Mostly because of the 1/3 higher then 170.3)

Which means at a 90 percent 153 mph winds at the surface....Which the nhc rounds there numbers to the nearest 5 which equals 155 mph. The surface est said 153 mph to. So I'm not joking.

At 80 percent it is 170.0 - 13.6=156.4 mph.


This storm is stronger then 145 mph....

[eye of the storm]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 161450
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

EMILY HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 943 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS AS HIGH AS 148 KT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS
OF 130-135 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND EYEWALL
DROPSONDES DO NOT YET SUPPORT WINDS THIS HIGH. THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/16...JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. EMILY IS ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THIS RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD...WITH PERHAPS A WEAKNESS REMAINING
OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.S. EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR AT LEAST
48 HR...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE EXACT TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW
MUCH WEAKNESS THERE IS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...SINCE THE
PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS CALLING FOR THE
RIDGE TO FILL IN AND LANDFALL IN EAST CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK WILL ALSO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE
GUIDANCE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

EMILY HAS BECOME WELL ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL-DEFINED 13 N MI WIDE
EYE AND A STRONG OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE
MAJOR FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT EYEWALL CYCLES...WITH PERHAPS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM DRY AIR TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE. EMILY
SHOULD WEAKEN OVER YUCATAN...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 16.2N 77.3W 125 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.7W 130 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 83.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 19.9N 86.2W 130 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 21.3N 89.4W 100 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1200Z 23.5N 94.5W 105 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.0W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/1200Z 26.0N 103.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING


$$

[wxwatcher91]

does the NHC just not want to show it strengthened that much because they forecasted "flucuations in strength"?

[stormie_skies]

So she is moving a bit more northerly....our eyes werent playing tricks on us Looks to me like she will barely clip the Yucatan if she keeps going 290....

All this uncertainty about the weakness in the ridge is giving me a headache...

Here's hoping the models are right.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pressure doe's not mean a thing...It is the winds that make the hurricane. Also 153 mph est surface winds support 155 mph. Where on Earth do they get this...

Charley had 150 mph winds/130 knots with 941 mililbars of pressure.

[arlwx]

dup

[Thunder44]

I had feeling that 145mph had to do more with the pressure. The pressure is higher than what you would expect with a 150mph to 155mph cane. Since drospondes didn't report winds that high, then I think he has right estimate.

[HURAKAN]

.... and she is ready to move over warmer waters!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Charley had 150 mph winds with 941 millibars. Ivan had 910 millibars with only 160 mph winds. While Andrew had 175 mph winds with 921 mililbars. Pressure doe's not matter. In there was wind at the surface of 155 mph....

[johngaltfla]

145 mph?!?!

That will generate one hell of a wave action and storm surge.

So much for Cozumel and Cancun being a vacation destination for a while.
There's not much to stop a huge storm surge from hitting them and wiping out the resort areas....

[Scorpion]

They werent wiped out by Gilbert, and it was significantly more powerful than Emily.

[hiflyer]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 161544
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1145 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAS FALLEN TO 940 MB AND THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[johngaltfla]

They werent wiped out by Gilbert, and it was significantly more powerful than Emily.

Give it time. It still has two more days to really intensify...

[InimanaChoogamaga]

How did they survive Gilbert?

[Hurricaneman]

Dont know