Just how much do you think the Yucatan will effect Emily?

#1 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:47 am

With Emily's forward motion ranging between 18-20mph... and if the NHC's forecast track holds... just how much do you think the Yucatan will effect Emily before it's return over water? At this point it looks like she may spend less time over land then Dennis did. BUT there is a difference in terrain... this is meant to be an open discussion for amateur and pros alike!

Edit: Decided to add a poll...

#2 Postby **Stephanie** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:54 am

I'm not a pro, but even though she's moving quickly and will be over land for a shorter period of time, I believe that her strength will dwindle (Cat 1 or 2?) and won't have enough time to strengthen back up to her current strength before hitting Corpus Christi, northern Mexico. This is just my opinion.

I know Dennis flared right back up after passing over Cuba, but the land mass wasn't as great and he was over water for a longer period of time.

What do the others think?

Innotech · #3 Postby **Innotech** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:56 am

its going to take a huge chunk out of her...Im htinking cat 1 when she exits.

stormie_skies · #4 Postby **stormie_skies** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:00 am

I think a lot of it depends on how far over land she gets....I don't exactly have a trained eye, but it looks to me like if you assume Em stays on her current course (290) through the next day or so, she might just clip the Yucatan, with the eye barely making contact with land at all. I think the longer she is over land, the more she will weaken....and hopefully stay that way....although Em seems to get a big kick out of defying intensity forecasts.... :roll:

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:01 am

depends upon which part of the EWRC it is on.

Gilbert just clipped the north Yucatan, but because he was on the back side of an EWRC, he weakened by 3 full categories

wxmann_91 · #6 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:08 am

I think it will do a Gilbert - drop down to a Cat 2, then reintensify to a Cat 3 or 4.

#7 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:07 pm

im not really sure how much land she will go over...i think some, but not a tremendous amount

beachbum_al · #8 Postby **beachbum_al** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:14 pm

I have to say Cat 3 and then going back to a 4/5 in the Gulf. Reason is because she will hit land but will not be over land long before entering water again. Warm Water!

canegrl04 · #9 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:14 pm

I think she drops to cat 1,then re strengthens to cat 4 in the GOM

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 1:23 pm

Drops to a Cat 2... re-strengthens into a Strong 3 and hits Mexico about 60-80 miles south of Brownsville.

Wouldn't surprise me to see it strengthen more if conditions permit though.

Just how much do you think the Yucatan will effect Emily?

How will the Yucatan effect Emily?

Just how much do you think the Yucatan will effect Emily?

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