Uh-oh, 12z GFS says Corpus, meet Emily

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Portastorm
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Uh-oh, 12z GFS says Corpus, meet Emily

#1 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:41 am

.... I know its only one model run, but ... (gulp) :eek:

Here is a link:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _850.shtml

run the model to 120hrs.
Last edited by Portastorm on Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:46 am

Dont forget the LBAR. Its last run show a near Corpus landfall as well.
The 11AM TPC Discussion did mention the weakness over TX

AFTER THAT...THE EXACT TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW
MUCH WEAKNESS THERE IS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS

Eveyone along the TX Coast should still pay attention to Emily over the next several days
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#3 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:48 am

good point, Kat! ... hang on and I'll put a link in my original posting.
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#4 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:50 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

http://ggweather.com/qpf/qpf_gfs_12z_loop.htm
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#5 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:50 am

The 12z GFS I just saw takes Emily into Belize.
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#6 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:51 am

The only way that model will work is if she goes the the YC, which is a longshot.
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#7 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:52 am

Yeah I see that also. Different 12Z GFS?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_036l.gif
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#8 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:54 am

Lots of time to watch Emily. Off to do chores :)
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#9 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:56 am

The link posted above looks like yesterday's 12Z run (I know, I know, timestamps say today, but it does look like yesterday's)

Today's 12Z run is in progress...

comparing slide's with what is out today to make sure though....
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#10 Postby stormcloud » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:03 am

Yes, hit those links again because the new GFS does show Belize and then southern BOC. If I had a dollar every time the GFS has flip-flopped on Emily, I could take everyone on this board to lunch (McDonald's.)
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#11 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:03 am

OK, while the first slides of the loop were stamped 16 JUL, the later slides (the one's showing CC landfall) are from yesterday's run (15 JUL)...
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Ominous sign?

#12 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:06 am

Just yesterday the local Houston forecast called for clearing and sunny weather starting Sunday. Now the forecast is calling for rain most of the week. Could that be a sign of a bigger weakness in Texas than thought?
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#13 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:10 am

I expect the models to still go back and forth all the way into the GOM. Emily definitely could still hit the Texas coast :eek:
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#14 Postby BayouVenteux » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:17 am

While it's still generating the run images, Emily's track does indeed look to be shifting southward into Mexico on the North American 12z GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_m.shtml
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#15 Postby Agua » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:20 am

canegrl04 wrote:I expect the models to still go back and forth all the way into the GOM. Emily definitely could still hit the Texas coast :eek:


It's possible. We'll have to see where the storm exits the Yucatan. Land interraction can really screw up a forecast track.

[Edited to change "[i]t's very possible" to "[i]t's possible" so as not to convey any sense of likelihood or probability]
Last edited by Agua on Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:25 am

I'm sorry gang, I don't mean to alarm everyone unneccesarily. But when I ran the loop on the 12z GFS from the meteorstar.com, it showed a hit just south of Corpus.

I'm not smoking crack .. honest!!!

Michael
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#17 Postby Galvestongirl » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:26 am

emily will probably hit the coast, but, in my opinion, I think that this area (galveston/houston) may only get rain out of it, I wish luck to all in its path.
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#18 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:21 pm

Galvestongirl wrote:emily will probably hit the coast, but, in my opinion, I think that this area (galveston/houston) may only get rain out of it, I wish luck to all in its path.


Yeah, I agree with that. Maybe some gusty winds.
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