Will Aug be active or have a lull.

[boca]

Will the season be just as active in Aug or will it be quiet because of the cycle were in. You have to think we'll get a lull because its been extremely active so early.

[skysummit]

I'm like you. After Emily, we'll have to get some sort of lull for a while.

[Duffy]

not so fast my friend
some models are starting to show 99L, perhaps doing a loop

[Radar]

I think the season is in full swing and I dont fore see any time of a major lull in the future. We are now just starting to come into the most active tropical time. If we get a break it will be a short one

[Galvestongirl]

I believe there will be a lull in august, then towards the peak, things will pick up again.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

A lull? No way. This is the year all blobs become major hurricanes.

[Anonymous]

I see no reason why there would be a lull. Maybe a week or two of quiet.

[Swimdude]

Maybe a couple of days here and there so that we can catch up on sleep.

[Brent]

I think the first 10-14 days of August will be calm... or at least relatively slow(no major storms threatening land). Activity will pick up around the 15th and there will probably be nonstop activity through Late September.

[Scorpion]

I doubt we will have a month of calm. Maybe a week at most.

[Ixolib]

Just remember last year...

On this date last year, we had STILL not experienced even one named storm! In fact, still had another 14 days to go, and it was downhill from that point on...

[BayouVenteux]

IMHO, maybe a 10-14 day lull in development after Emily is out of the picture (the bad side: allowing late July/early August recovery time for SSTs in areas already affected by tropical systems) ...then back to the races.

BTW, anyone heard anything with regard to the current status of the Madden-Julian oscillation? In seasons past, including last year, lots of posts were referencing it to the correllation with upcoming active "bursts" in the tropics. I haven't seen many of those this season...granted, the season thus far has been one big burst from the get-go!

I did see on another site several weeks ago that the MJO was difficult to detect for some reason at that time. Anyone know the story on that ?

[Clint_TX]

Lull Until August 14th or so...I hope

[Duffy]

Nah, i don't think it will be that long

[WeatherEmperor]

We could have a lull for most of the remainder of July but Im not sure how much will be in August. Remember the past few years have had a lull in very early portions of August and the remainder of the season went to be active. I remember in 1998 we had Alex form in late July and then didnt have Bonnie form until August 19th I think it was.

<RICKY>

[frederic79]

I agree with Brent. The early weeks of August could be a lull in regards to anything major. Then, however, SST's will be several degrees higher across the board and CV will be cranking out waves day after day. It would be highly unusual to see still more Cat. 4 storms form, but on the other hand, what about this year has been usual??? Given the way things have been, the lull will be somewhat unsettling because the POTENTIAL for extremely intense storms will be there into October. Consider this...
1- Dennis & Emily reached 929-930 mb in spite of climotology.
2- Emily reached 929-930 mb in spite of forward movement of 18-20 mph. I would not expect that from a storm that is racing along like that.
3- Dennis & Emily reached 929-930 mb over waters that will be significantly warmer come August and September.
4- Both storms went through distinct periods of rapid intensification.
Given that, I am exceptionally vigilant as August nears.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to me that we will have a two week lull till mid August

[Duffy]

i've heard it said, that the Atlantic and Pacific correlate with each other and we're kinda seeing that now....as the Atlantic is dying down for now, we already have a Typhoon about to go into Tawain and another one in the making, so yes i would tend to agree there will be a Lull, but im not sure it will be another month till the next storm, i think it will be sooner than that

[weatherwindow]

if this year has any chance of catching 1933, it will have to match an august pace only slightly slower than 2004's. 7ns storms in august 1933....however, i think that, given current and projected conditions in the tropical atlantic, anything is possible this year. IMO, a two week lull followed a near record setting august...................rich

[Hurricaneman]

I agree