H Emily Recon Reports=Next Mission this evening

[clfenwi]

Thank you, clfenwi!

Is there any way to extrapolate that "fringe" data compared to the eyewall windspeeds?

There may be a way, but in the time it would take to do the work, the data from the next dropsonde will be in... they are making a pass of the storm from the northeast to the southwest... I'll decode the dropsondes that come from the eye and eyewall on this pass...

[Coldfront]

Cycloneye,

That's ok, any news is better than no news at all. Thanks for the info though...

[Coldfront]

Thank you, clfenwi!

Is there any way to extrapolate that "fringe" data compared to the eyewall windspeeds?

There may be a way, but in the time it would take to do the work, the data from the next dropsonde will be in... they are making a pass of the storm from the northeast to the southwest... I'll decode the dropsondes that come from the eye and eyewall on this pass...

Ok, thanks! Will be looking forward to it.

[clfenwi]

1709 1638N 07804W 03052 0023 061 083 070 070 086 03126 0000000000
1709. 1637N 07803W 03056 0010 062 082 068 068 085 03117 0000000000
1710 1636N 07802W 03048 5004 067 090 072 072 094 03096 0000000000
1710. 1635N 07801W 03053 5019 067 093 078 078 096 03085 0000000000
1711 1635N 07800W 03051 5039 066 103 080 080 104 03064 0000000000
1711. 1634N 07759W 03057 5059 063 105 070 070 109 03049 0000000000
1712 1632N 07758W 03052 5090 065 116 090 090 120 03013 0000000000
1712. 1631N 07757W 03053 5135 061 125 074 074 127 02969 0000000000
1713 1630N 07756W 03054 5201 054 137 068 068 141 02904 0000000000
1713. 1628N 07756W 03073 5300 053 133 086 086 141 02824 0000000000
1714 1627N 07755W 03027 5399 050 090 136 136 106 02678 0000000000
1714. 1626N 07754W 03055 5447 055 050 188 120 060 02658 0000000000
1715 1624N 07752W 03049 5464 083 021 192 120 029 02636 0000000000
1715. 1623N 07752W 03051 5458 155 011 172 124 014 02643 0000000000
1716 1621N 07751W 03052 5440 219 021 158 128 029 02662 0000000000
1716. 1620N 07750W 03053 5418 230 037 154 124 039 02685 0000000000
1717 1619N 07751W 03052 5415 253 041 162 116 044 02687 0000000000
1717. 1621N 07752W 03055 5443 262 023 170 112 031 02662 0000000000
1718 1623N 07752W 03053 5462 161 008 180 104 017 02641 0000000000
1718. 1624N 07753W 03054 5460 102 030 174 110 035 02644 0000000000


The pass through the eye happened at about 1:15... 141 knot flight level winds...which suggest 145 mph at the surface...

[Coldfront]

Thank you, clfenwi. If there's any good news in all this, she's not strengthening any more since the 11:30 report.

[Scorpion]

Was that the NE quad?

[wxwatcher91]

387
SXXX50 KNHC 161729
SXXX50

SXXX50 KNHC 161728
AF302 0705A EMILY HDOB 52 KNHC
1719 1626N 07753W 03049 5434 097 043 158 122 047 02665 0000000000
1719. 1627N 07752W 03050 5416 093 056 146 128 063 02684 0000000000
1720 1629N 07752W 03059 5402 100 081 144 130 093 02708 0000000000
1720. 1629N 07751W 03054 5380 111 119 108 108 131 02725 0000000100
1721 1630N 07750W 03065 5323 119 147 086 086 151 02792 0000000100
1721. 1631N 07749W 03031 5263 117 148 108 104 149 02819 0000000000
1722 1631N 07748W 03051 5214 119 140 098 098 141 02888 0000000000
1722. 1632N 07747W 03056 5165 120 135 092 092 137 02942 0000000000
1723 1633N 07747W 03055 5125 121 128 094 094 131 02981 0000000000
1723. 1634N 07746W 03048 5093 122 123 082 082 125 03006 0000000000
1724 1635N 07745W 03054 5065 124 116 092 092 118 03041 0000000000
1724. 1636N 07744W 03055 5042 127 105 080 080 109 03064 0000000000
1725 1637N 07743W 03061 5024 135 099 074 074 102 03088 0000000100
1725. 1638N 07741W 03039 5006 135 102 068 068 104 03084 0000000100
1726 1639N 07740W 03055 0010 135 099 056 056 102 03116 0000000000
1726. 1640N 07739W 03053 0025 135 099 056 056 102 03129 0000000000
1727 1641N 07738W 03053 0040 135 093 074 074 095 03144 0000000000
1727. 1642N 07737W 03054 0051 137 089 076 074 090 03156 0000000000
1728 1643N 07735W 03051 0062 137 085 086 074 087 03165 0000000000
1728. 1644N 07734W 03051 0071 138 081 086 076 081 03174 0000000000

NNNN



151kt!!!!!

[clfenwi]

Was that the NE quad?

The plane was moving ...(latitude decreasing, longitude decreasing... must focus southeast, so that was northwest quad...

goes gets some caffeine

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

151 kt flight level...My guest is good. 155 mph is likely at the surface.

[wxwatcher91]

actually 151kts at FL makes 156mph which is CAT 5

[Scorpion]

We have a Cat 5 folks.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats right. But will the nhc jump with the western clouds warming...

[Scorpion]

Just in time for the 2 PM advisory. If they dont upgrade I will not trust them again.

[jkt21787]

actually 151kts at FL makes 156mph which is CAT 5

very true, but NHC said earlier the 148kts didn't correspond well after dropsonde observations, so it should be interesting to see whether they go with 155 Cat 4 or 160 cat 5 at 2 pm.

[clfenwi]

they won't rate it that w/o another pressure drop... if we see pressure<938 then I would think it would get rated as such..

[senorpepr]

actually 151kts at FL makes 156mph which is CAT 5

Well... that's only if NHC decides to round up. As it stands, it's still only 155 mph or cat 4. Also, that's is if NHC decides that is an accurate reading. The pressure is still awfully high. They may only go 150.

[Scorpion]

It already is 150. 151 knots come on! That is 156.3 mph at surface!

[Thunder44]

If they pressure didn't lower much , they might not raise winds. 156mph is closer to 155mph by the way.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If its 156 mph is true then its a cat5. No quastion...But who knows...

[Scorpion]

Yes but technically a Cat 5 is anything 156 mph or greater.