Will Emily be a cat 5 at the 5 PM advisorie?

[cycloneye]

Close call depending if pressures go more down.

[Valkhorn]

If the pressure goes down just a little more... I'd say yes.

Emily could be 160mph at 5pm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

151 knots is 156 surface...So if it can form some convection by 5pm around the eye. Then yes!!!

[canegrl04]

Yep

[Normandy]

I need some crow....shes already a cat 5 and i dont see her weakening.

[Swimdude]

Oh, yeah, when I make the poll, everyone votes 'no.' Now look what's happening. Hehehe just kidding y'all.

Voted yes, for the third, and hopefully final, time.

[hurricanefreak1988]

She's been going wild all of a sudden. Heck, in my opinion, it would be a surprise if she doesn't become the first Category 5 of the season at 5PM.

[Thunder44]

It might be classifed as Cat 5 before then. I would watch for recon reports and any updates to show up by TPC.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Maybe, but I voted no. Doesn't look like a Cat V on satellite.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its looks very good now...It looks as good as Ivan.

[MWatkins]

With a new recon report of 937MB and a flight level wind of 151 knots (!) it's pretty darn close. Betcha the 2pm intensity is 155mph...but this looks pretty darn close to cat 5 intensity.

MW

[cycloneye]

It might be classifed as Cat 5 before then. I would watch for recon reports and any updates to show up by TPC.

It is a good posibbility that may occur.

[MWatkins]

With a new recon report of 937MB and a flight level wind of 151 knots (!) it's pretty darn close. Betcha the 2pm intensity is 155mph...but this looks pretty darn close to cat 5 intensity.

MW

What a brilliant observation...since the advisory at 155 came out 15 mins BEFORE I made this post. Sorry about that...should have looked in the right place.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TNT35.KNHC

MW

[micktooth]

It might not make it. The NHC could have classified a Cat 5 now, but stayed 1MPH short. Em might not hold out for 3 more hours at this intensity.

[Brent]

Yes... but it may not. Of course, I figured it had peaked this morning so the 155 mph right now is a big surprise.

[beachbum_al]

I have to say yes. But isn't it already almost there according to the 2pm advisory...155mph with higher gust.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Its looks very good now...It looks as good as Ivan.

The core of Emily is very impressive (maybe as much as Ivan), but Ivan's outflow was perfect.

http://www.redtailcanyon.com/items/3812 ... eId=219018

There doesn't seem to be much shear around Emily, so she still might make it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ivan looked at one time as good as this...In that was East of Jamaica. But she is looking very good. It is now starting to move into the warmest waters of the hole Atlantic. TCHP can support a very strong cat5. Gilbert,Mitch,Allen formed right here.

[jkt21787]

Since recon won't be back until this evening, I say no. They won't upgrade without recon in there, I would imagine.

[stormie_skies]

Since recon won't be back until this evening, I say no. They won't upgrade without recon in there, I would imagine.

I don't think they would hesitate to upgrade without recon in the system if the pressures and intensity estimates suppport additional strengthening... first of all, we are talking one mph here....second, I believe one observation from the last mission actually showed 156 mph at the surface, but NHC wanted more supporting evidence before they upgraded. She's getting closer to the Caymans...so if they are going to upgrade at all, 5 pm would be the time to do it....assuming Miss Em doesnt start weakening or start a EWRC....